Dr. Kris has two degrees from MIT because one just wasn't enough. Her life goal was to figure out the universe and having done that (at least to her satisfaction), she decided to tackle something even more difficult—the stock market. Applying the scientific method along with an insatiably curious mind, she began trading stocks, futures, and options in order to find the holy grail to market success. She's discovered to her immense satisfaction that not only is there one way to succeed but many. Combining her love of cooking with the stock market, she's devised recipes for investment success designed to please the palate of most investors. Dr. Kris currently manages a private equity long/short portfolio and writes of her current research projects that appear on her website, StockMarketCookBook.com. Her most exciting project is applying market timing models to Modern Portfolio Theory to not only give greater returns but at substantially lower levels of risk. (See PortfolioPreserver.com for further information.)
Sometime investor, never short, usually ETFs, but sometimes individual equities. Native Californian as in born here, educated here, married here (to another native), raising family here. Staunch believer in the scientific method. Consider politics to be nothing more than the organizations of hatreds. Abhorred by the intrusion of politics into all facets of our lives, especially finance and investing. Especially unhappy at what thats done to my once beautiful state, but determined to see that reversed.
Commodity broker 79-81 I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued - actually created the RR time series in the late 1980's). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81 My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp. See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity) http://bit.ly/M0JB7X The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string"). As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”: Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude. President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". "It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity" "Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits). This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct. Some calls: (1) flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672) Suckers Rally If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm (2) Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm » the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend (3) flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04 (4) Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH: "Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely." Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus: 2010 jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top feb..... 0.50.... 0.10 mar.... 0.54.... 0.08 apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May. Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)" (5) flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day). (6) POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM | The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006. 10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom 11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18 12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44,,,,,,,-0.23 1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06 2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10 3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04 4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02 5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04 6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05 7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10 8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05 9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13 10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession 11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession 12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession Trajectory as predicted: (7) 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5 "We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger" (8) June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher). 20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply (9) This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
Perhaps more than any other time in the last six decades, the fate of markets is inextricably intertwined with the ebb and flow of geopolitics. From the ECB's attempts to use the central bank's balance sheet to influence political outcomes across the eurozone to Saudi Arabia's efforts to transform the kingdom's influence over crude prices into an instrument of foreign policy, it's become increasingly clear that one simply cannot fully comprehend market movements without a thorough understanding of concurrent political outcomes. Drawing on extensive experience in both politics and finance, Heisenberg will help demystify a world in which investors can no longer hope to conceptualize markets as existing in anything that even approximates a vacuum. "I am the one who knocks."
Hello SA. I'm happy to be a part of this great website. I have been a market watcher for many years, and have been a trader for 6 years back in the late 1980's and early 1990's. I have been a long-term investor since my early teens. I study and apply technical analysis, and I use common sense. I am a student of fundamental analysis, but I have a long way to go. That being said, I am very impressed with the trading style of some of the members here and have successfully incorporated some of their techniques into my toolbox. I hold a diversified portfolio of common stocks and mutual funds. I utilize many strategies at buying and holding long, and I have sold short as a trader and did fairly well with it. I endeavor to see the stock market in various ways. I study the general market outlook, but usually do not try to time the market as I believe that it's nearly impossible. I am holding issues such as Apple, McDonald's, Proctor and Gamble, Chevron, and Coca-Cola long-term.
BS Engineering from U. Arizona, MBA Thunderbird International Bus School; 30+years in metals, including large projects, over 15 years living and working in LatAm.
Back in Lima, Peru. Running my own investments full-time now.
25 years in energy M&A/Corporate Finance business career. Senior officer for public E&P companies, including MLP, charged with overseeing (at different times) accounting, tax, legal, investment banking/analyst relations, investor relations, as well as business unit with land, engineering, geological and support functions. Used legal background to interface with and direct outside investment bankers, law firms and accounting firms in M&A transactions and offerings. Personal investments and trading 15 years.
Rubicon Associates is headed by a Chartered Financial Analyst charter holder with over 20 years of experience in the investment management industry focused on the analysis, investment and management of fixed income and preferred stock portfolios. Over the years, he has analyzed and invested in both public and private companies around the world as well as advised institutional clients on fixed income strategies and manager selection. The principal has been responsible for managing nearly seven billion dollars in credit investments across the capital structure and overseeing the research and trading of credit market activities. Rubicon Associates has written for Seeking Alpha, Learn Bonds, a newsletter and TheStreet.com in addition to advising institutional and private investors.
Tyler Durden (a pseudonym) represents the idea that a return to truly efficient markets is a possibility and a necessity. After having experienced the inner workings of capitalism at various asset managers and advisors, Tyler believes that the current model is flawed and a deleveraging at every level of modern society is needed to reinspire the fundamental entrepreneurial spirit. Visit his blog: ZeroHedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/)
CFA Institute is a global community of more than 100,000 investment professionals working to build an investment industry where investors’ interests come first, financial markets function at their best, and economies grow.
What You Can Expect From My Musings
- Unabashed proponent of free trade and free markets.
- Highly stringent cash flow analysis and sustainable expansionary potential.
- Examining the business models and markets of Japanese large-caps.
- Passion for finding hidden gems in the Japanese equity universe.
- Pure alpha and alternative investment strategies in a deflationary world.
Looking for Employment (Entry-Level or Internship Opportunities)!
Ready to start my career in Investment Management!
View my resumé here: http://www.slideshare.net/DavidDeuchar/resume2016-64015533
I believe that an intelligently-diversified portfolio combined with calculated risk-taking and thorough cash flow analysis is the key to investment success. I have a strong interest in identifying unique opportunities in:
- Highly Developed International Markets
- Healthcare, Tech, and Energy
- Large-Cap Japanese Equities
I also strongly believe in aligning investment strategy with macroeconomic trends, geopolitics, and monetary and fiscal policy.
"You learn so much more from the bad experiences in your life than the good ones. Make sure to take the time to reflect on them. If you don't, a precious opportunity will have gone to waste. Remember that pain plus reflection equals progress."
- Ray Dalio
"I'm no genius, but I'm smart in spots and I stay around those spots."
- Tom Watson
"Ideas are bulletproof."
- V for Vendetta
Equipment Sales history Gas, Mining, Construction, Water, Foundations, and Environmental projects in the Western Hemisphere. Investing to build value, and enjoy challenges and learning from respected members of the community
20 yrs in the USMC. MA international business and MBA. 4 years process engineer at GE aircraft M&I division. Now own a management company with 12 employees running dental offices. Managing doctors is like herding cats. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pk7yqlTMvp8) Second language Japanese.Photo is Upper Gully West Virginia white water rafting past pillow rock Class 5. OOHRAH
Full time Investor / Trader, 17 years.
Specialist in risk management, with intermediate trade focus, US stocks, international ETFs and commodities.
Believe in correlation of markets, must understand all markets to trade one well.
Self taught through continuous study of myself and other investors.
Extensive experience with short selling, futures and options.
Developing interest in international markets based on poltical change and policies.
Follow and read fundamentals but invest by listening to technical's.
Follow me on Twitter @Cessnadriver50
Private fund manager. Worked for Dalatin 35 years on three continents and now run Foundation's banking division accounts via 4 credit union(s) an all branches for family.
Graduated INCAE Business School after 4 years at Costa Rica's public University system.
My office located in Brazil and I spend part of every month in our main Costa Rican office. And, when needed work in our Dubai Office or two China offices.
Voting Board member of Costa Rica national bank.
Jan 2016 > Retired at 51...Just keeping Board Seat and 99% of time dedicated to running charitable construction of schools & churches . Daughter now running operations in Costa Rica > Panama . Colombia
US equitable investing Just > $FB
We are a tax consulting and company formation firm located offshore in the sunny, tax free Bahamas since 1990. I've formed over 1,030 Bahamian IBCs and 360 Anguilla IBCs since 1990.
◾Anguilla is a UK overseas territory with same tax status as Cayman Islands.
◾All the money and technology to create their offshore registration services came out of London.
◾Anguilla was one of the very first tax havens that adopted an online registry service.
◾QEII is the head of State.
◾Got questions? email email@example.com
The Caribbean tax havens have grown to rival New York and London as a place to hold family assets, and the US FET is one reason why there are so many offshore companies there.
480,000 IBCs in BVI;
100,000 “exempt companies” in Cayman;
45,000 IBCs in the Bahamas;
30,000 cos in Bermuda
25,000 IBCs in Anguilla
None of the Caribbean (tax) havens levy an estate tax.
Nobody is much interested in tax avoidance any more, so I'm posting Tom's Fishing Gallary pictures instead http://bahamasbahamas.com/images/gallery.html
Personal info here https://www.linkedin.com/profile/preview?locale=en_US&trk=prof-0-sb-preview-primary-button
and PFIC / FATCA info for planners https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/new-irs-form-8938-created-fatca-2010-can-filing-avoided-tax-havens?trk=prof-post
JPMorgan/Chase writes on U.S. Estate taxation: "Because stock of a foreign corporation (in a no tax haven) is not subject to U.S. estate tax, holding U.S. situs assets through a foreign corporation constitutes a planning opportunity." http://www.jpmfinancialservices.com/images/PDFs/EstateTaxation.pdf
Wall Street Breakfast, Seeking Alpha's flagship daily business news summary, is a one-page summary that gives you a rapid overview of the day's key financial news. It's designed for easy readability on the site or by email (including on mobile devices), and is published before 7:00 AM ET every market day.
Wall Street Breakfast readership of over 900,000 includes many from the investment-banking and fund-management industries.
Sign up here to receive the Wall Street Breakfast in your inbox every business day: http://seekingalpha.com/account/email_preferences
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)
Trade stocks by day, and at night am writing a historical epic about the ancient Mayan civilization.
"Maya: Spirits Of The Jaguar" is a sweeping saga set in the ancient and magical Mayan landscape where a wronged family struggles against prophecy, power, treachery and forbidden love, ending the four hundred year reign of an ancient dynasty.
Have a literary agent who's patiently waiting... At present there are just under 800 pages completed, with about 250 more to go.
Quite the mix of payless jobs!
I am an experienced individual investor who has been trading merger arbitrage stocks and options since the 90's. I am a writer with a Master of Science from Northwestern University and I truly enjoy writing articles about the stock market. I try to look for opportunities where the odds are in my favor and there is a definite edge. On Seeking Alpha my articles will aim to provide insight and favorable risk/reward for the readers.However, I am not an investment advisor so any recomendations or ideas I write about in my articles, blogs, or comments shouldn't be taken as investment advice. I recommend using my writings as a starting point to which you should add your own research or that of an investment advisor.
"Any time you make a bet with the best of it, where the odds are in your favor, you have earned something on that bet, whether you actually win or lose the bet. By the same token, when you make a bet with the worst of it, where the odds are not in your favor, you have lost something, whether you actually win or lose the bet."
-David Sklansky, "The Theory of Poker"
Retired electrical engineer with 30+ years experience in designing instrumentation and switching power supplies. I understand ICEs, electric motors and electrical grid transmission. General Physics background.
I worked for many years in the semiconductor equipment business in Austin, Texas.
semiconductor = silicon. Austin = silicon hills. Hence "siliconhillbilly".
Sorry, no black or missing teeth :-)
Patrick Young is an independent investor. He previously worked in Upstream R&D for ExxonMobil. He has a M.S. in Geology focused on igneous petrology and geochemistry, and is currently working towards a Ph.D. in the same at Yale University. He has wide interests in technology, particularly energy infrastructure.