Dr. Kris'  Instablog

4:00pm ET Back from the NAAIM (National Association of Active Investment Managers) conference in Denver and have much to do so I'll keep it short today. Well...it appears as if yesterday's threat of a "Sell in May" scenario is being put on hold as some of the major averages were able to not only erase yesterday's damage but add to it. Mr. Nazzie razzle-dazzled by adding to its previous high (the highest since 2000) mainly due to action in internet and semiconductor stocks.

Regarding internet issues, both LinkedIn (LNKD) and Yelp (YELP) moved to new highs. Yelp leaped previous resistance, adding more than 27% to yesterday's close on ten times normal volume. Reporting today, the company beat revenue projections which prompted an upgrade.

In semiconductors, solar stocks were among the more active issues. Surfing through the industry group, I found the chart of Semiconductor Manufacturing (SMI, $3.91) to be especially compelling. The stock has been rising steadily after breaking out of a two month consolidation pattern last summer and today it broke $3.60 resistance, gaining over 10% on slightly heavier than normal volume. It appears that momentum is on its side and technically it gets a green light. Fundamentally, though, there's not enough information on it (without going into the SEC filings) to tell what's going on as it is a Chinese company trading here as an ADR (American Depository Receipt). From what little info I could find, it appears as if the company has been having cash flow problems but hey, the stock wouldn't be rising if investors weren't finding something to like!

Trade Note: The unemployment report is due out before tomorrow's opening bell. This event has the potential to add a lot of volatility to tomorrow's trading action. If the number is bad, that means the Fed will continue its QE policies which is good for the market. However, a bad number lends credence to the manufacturing numbers which are showing contraction. This could make investors nervous about the possibility of another recession which might lead to a sell-off. Perhaps the best outcome would be to maintain the status quo. We'll see.

[Photo: Dr. Kris at her Portfolio Preserver booth at the 2013 NAAIM conference in Denver.]

Dateline: Denver, 6:15pm ET At my booth today at the annual NAAIM Conference so didn't get to hear any of the speakers, alas. But had a chance to peruse the market and although the major averages gained ground, the S&P (SPX) was unable to even touch the 1600 level, a point of resistance. The good news is the market-leading Dow Transports were able to break through its downward trending channel meaning that the "Sell in May" scenario may be delayed or not occur at all this year. A rising Trin--typically viewed as a bearish sign--could just be giving the market some breathing room to move higher. The Fed's interest rate decision is coming out tomorrow and markets are typically quiet before it. However, if there's even a soupcon of the Fed signaling an end to QE (quantitative easing), then we could see a sharp sell-off ushering in the "Sell in May" playbill.

Today's conundrum: Are commodities poised to rebound? Commodity-tied countries Canada and Australia are showing real strength. Today, the loonie (FXC) and the Canadian country etf (EWC) both broke out while the Australia country fund (EWA) chalked up another new high. If the crash in commodities can't keep these countries down, does this mean that they're on the cusp of rebounding? And, was the sell-off in gold overdone? I don't have the answers--just asking the questions. Article text goes here...

4:00 pm ET: Wash, rinse, repeat. That's been the tone of the market for the past few trading days. I don't have much to add to what's already been said, except that I am a bit surprised that the market held up considering the worse than expected GDP number that was released earlier. (It came in at 2.5% instead of 3%.) Apparently, money printing trumps fundamentals but there will come a time (maybe soon) when investors feel the market is overbought. Right now there's no way to tell. Market internals show the bulls and bears duking it out and it's not clear who has the upper hand. Perhaps the fact that the bears are have made it past round three is an indication that they might deliver the one-two punch to end the bulls' run.

In other news, solar stocks continue to advance and homebuilders are bucking up after a brief slump. Precious metals took a breather after this week's rebound off of oversold levels. Oh, I forgot to mention that the pound sterling etn (FXB) broke $152 resistance yesterday. Upward momentum seems to be on its side and a move to the $161 level could well be in the cards.

That's it for now. Next week there probably won't be a blog until Thursday as I will be attending the NAAIM conference in Denver.

Weekend reading suggestion: It is rumored that there will be an article on me in tomorrow's weekly edition of Barron's, both online and in print. Here's a link to their website: online.barrons.com/this_week