Seeking Alpha
  • Dr. Kris
    Fire your broker/Hire a chimp: Two Italian researchers found that investing at random worked out just as well or better than using...
    8/27/13
    Reply (89)
    • Dr. Kris: ...a well-defined trading strategy--and with less volatility, too! Read it in the latest edition of Wired: http://bit.ly/13WTizR
      8/27/13
    • weed: I kinda did that when I started managing my own portfolio.
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: Can you prove their hypothesis?
      8/27/13
    • weed: The more I think, the worse I do. Trading rules and loss control seem to outweigh stock picking, in general, with a few notable exceptions.
      8/27/13
    • wenlock00: If they cash in now, they might beat the chimp?
      8/27/13
    • TruffelPig: A Chimp might not have bought AT like me........or ZAGG.
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: In my VectorVest days, one guy in the monthly meeting presented a portfolio that beat the market every year...
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: On 12/31 of the year, he dumped his previous year's portfolio (for an overall gain) & bought the 10 biggest losers of the current year > $1.
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: Over the past ten years his portfolio significantly outperformed the market. Just thought I'd pass that on.
      8/27/13
    • TruffelPig: I like to buy shredded biotechs - if the story is ok in my book. Picket up SNTA at $4 :) - yummy. ECYT at 3.2.
      8/27/13
    • TruffelPig: I could see that working with buying losers only.
      8/27/13
    • TruffelPig: Remember to presse the buy button in time ;P
      8/27/13
    • wheelz23: read the comments underneath that article, there's some good ones
      8/27/13
    • Energysystems: My chimp's a good guy!
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: wheelz: This hypothesis can be effectively argued from either point of view ad infinitum. I'm not necessarily agreeing with it....
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: ...and the comments are worth reading, providing a cross-section of many POV's. Thanks for noting this as I read it in the magazine first.
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: Actually, it would be fun to put this thesis to a test....
      8/27/13
    • Dr. Kris: ...I was thinking of building a portfolio by fading Bill Ackman but that seems too easy.
      8/27/13
    • wheelz23: i agree...at the end of the year (or maybe just for a month or two), do you guys want to put together some random portfolios to compare to
      8/27/13
    • wheelz23: some baselines?
      8/27/13
    • TruffelPig: I make one 100% biotech :)
      8/27/13
    • wheelz23: we can put together 10 random portfolios, 10 stocks, 10k each stock...Dr. Kris can post this stuff on her site if she wants
      8/27/13
    • TruffelPig: $ECYT, $INO, $EXEL, $ALNY, $CELG, $ONCY, $ONCS, $MAKO, $MZOR, $PCYC
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: Voilá
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: Sounds like a plan. Let's do an equal $ weight (10k/position). You'll have to keep track of your own portfolio & include dividends.
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: You'll have until market open next Tuesday to submit your random stocks including your selection criteria.
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: I'll be using closing prices as of this Friday.
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: My portfolio is new yearly lows between $2 & $20, no ETFs, closed end funds, commodities, or currencies.
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: Here's my 10 picks: ANTH, DCIX, LTXC, BODY, CENT, ISCHY, ONE, TKC, TWGP, SSI.
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: i'm talking totally random picks
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: What is the best way to track a portfolio of that sort?
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: lol...monkey style
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: Woah, Diana Container shi******* ;P - I sold that recently. In real life.
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: use SA's portfolio feature
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: also, since the article mentioned monkeys are better than systems...want to also add a duplicate portfolio, but add stops to the picks?
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: Wheelz, we are running against those with selected portfolios - you can do the monkey ones!
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: Monkeys do NOT use stops Wheelz .... tststs
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: woo hoo, i am the monkey!
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: i'm using random.org to generate my stocks
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: I know my portfolio isn't exactly random, but I am interested in seeing how a truly cruddy portfolio will do.
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: Mine is an attempt to create a portfolio that outperforms any other using a selected sector.
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: ok, i used nasdaq, amex, and nyse only....randomized the alphabet, took the first 10 letters....then randomized the exchange...then
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: randomized the number of stock to get my choices (counted down the alphabetized list)
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: COLX, REIS, MCA, PACB, TCI, IGU, WFC, OIBR, FNX, KGJI
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: Woah, I know one name!
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: mine has 3 etf's and 1 fund...allowed or should i replace them with stocks?
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: and for today, compared to the DIA and SPY, the monkey is destroying them...9 of 10 are up with a range of .41% - 3.61%
      8/28/13
    • weed: 10 random numbers against alphabetized sp500 list, $CA $CL $D $F $FFIV $IPG $JCP $LMT $VZ $WDC
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: weed, welcome to team monkey!
      8/28/13
    • TruffelPig: JCP ;P - woah ;P
      8/28/13
    • weed: Never question the monkey!
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: wheelz: A totally random selection would include etfs, etc., but you can do what you want.
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: I'll input the wheelz & weed portfolios into my database.
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: i'm keeping it totally random
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: i think this would be an opportunity for SA's contributors to show what they're really made of...
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: wheelz: Would you like to swap your $IGU for something else? It's really thinly traded and I'm not sure how long it's going to be around.
      8/28/13
    • Dr. Kris: I don't think even a monkey would put his money into $IGU.
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: ok, swapped...IEV
      8/28/13
    • wheelz23: i'm surprised nobody else wants to participate in this...after all these claims of greatness i've seen on here, when it comes down to it
      8/29/13
    • wheelz23: they won't put their money where their mouth is
      8/29/13
    • wheelz23: fyi, monkey beat SPY today
      8/29/13
    • wheelz23: 10 lowest PE (taken from theonlineinvestor.com)- AIG, F, STX, CLF, AIZ, APOL, WDC, YHOO, WU, COP
      8/29/13
    • wheelz23: add that if you want...if somebody wants to find the 10 highest PE stocks, feel free (can be an all short portfolio)
      8/29/13
    • TruffelPig: Growth: DDD SSYS XONE TSLA CELG CRM PRLB MAKO QIHU ALNY (woah.....that is going to go swimming with all the popular picks.........)
      8/29/13
    • Dr. Kris: Truff: I'll add this, too. Interested in how all of these specialized portfolios will do.
      8/30/13
    • Dr. Kris: I'd actually like a certain criterion applied to these specialized portfolios, such as biggest $ gainers or highest P/E's (to short), etc.
      8/30/13
    • TruffelPig: We need three or so more random ones. One random one isn't statistical enough as "random".
      8/30/13
    • Dr. Kris: Truff: Yes, you're right. I'll do one random portfolio (just have to figure out how to make it random).
      8/30/13
    • Dr. Kris: Found a site where you can select stocks by throwing darts:http://bit.ly/1a6ffiG
      8/30/13
    • Dr. Kris: After throwing a lot of darts, I got the following list: REMY VC, REXR, PTLA, SDLP, AGI IPDN, STML, FRC, PSX.
      8/30/13
    • Dr. Kris: I eliminated funds, foreign stocks (unless they also trade here), and only used stocks that trade on major exchanges (no OTC or BB stuff).
      8/30/13
    • TruffelPig: Made one too including OTC etc. but >1$: DXM CMYF CTBG MAL CLWA GMLP SGBCY KMI YOO CNL
      8/30/13
    • Boatyzaffa: This is a great idea! I'll try and throw something together. I believe position sizing and money management is the key to winning in the...
      8/31/13
    • Boatyzaffa: market, BUT I believe even more that the key to winning BIG has to do with "extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds"
      8/31/13
    • Boatyzaffa: Maybe you guys can help me come up with a portfolio of stocks that have the latest and greatest buzzwords of today and tomorrow ;)
      8/31/13
    • Dr. Kris: Truff: I can't find SGBCY and there's no company for YOO--do you mean YOOIF?
      9/1/13
    • Dr. Kris: Boaty: The only "sexy" name in stocks right now that I can think of is Elon Musk. Maybe take the latest "alpha-rich" names from the SA Pros.
      9/1/13
    • Dr. Kris: Truff: Also couldn't find MAL.
      9/1/13
    • Dr. Kris: Truff: Volume on CMYF, CTBG, & CLWA is virtually nonexistent. Sure you want these?
      9/1/13
    • Dr. Kris: I liked the alpha rich idea so much I took the fop 10 longs right now on SA Pro: ZIPR, MTXN, KIPO, CTB, MANT, ASNA, FSRV, DCIN, ESI, CYAN
      9/1/13
    • Dr. Kris: I've been looking at ZIPR & am glad someone finally covered it.
      9/1/13
    • TruffelPig: Replace the names with SCTY YHOO RENN NVAX PRGO ATML
      9/2/13
    • TruffelPig: Just randomly selected by browsing US stock lists
      9/2/13
    • Dr. Kris: Truff: OK, they're replaced.
      9/3/13
    • Dr. Kris: End of year portfolio returns for all mentioned here: http://seekingalpha.com/p/1ifah
      12/31/13
    • wheelz23: that's awesome...great job t-pig! thanks for keeping tabs on this Doc...and have a great new year guys!
      12/31/13
    • weed: Thanks Doc.
      Jan 1, 12:04 AM
    • TruffelPig: Thanks Dr. Kris :).
      Jan 1, 12:07 AM
    • Dr. Kris: No, thanks to all of you who made this little experiment possible!
      Jan 1, 9:49 PM