On the Rigged Stock Market Rally(s) [View article]
I believe the only organizations large enough to walk up the stock markets of the world are a coalition of central banks, probably acting through their agents at big commercial banks and brokerages. I wouldn't think the ordinary hedge fund would have anything to do with the scale of market manipulation that occurred.
Zero Hedge has been trying to get to the bottom of who has been soaking up the hundreds of billions of US Treasury supply per quarter. Other central banks? Large institutions acting on behest of the FED to make the auctions look good?
All we know is what is we know using simple mathematics. Bad loans are being taken off the balance sheets of big banks by the FED printing money. Huge Treasury supply is being absorbed by money printing by a variety of central banks. The FED is directly supporting the mortgage market by absorbing mortgage backed securities. The stock market has been pulled out of the abyss and walked up for the past year. In short, asset prices are being supported across the board by printing money.
Officially sanctioned assets are stocks, real estate, and bonds. Non-approved assets include commodities (big brother does not approve of $2000 gold, or $100 oil, etc) or short sales.
How Have U.S. Stocks Defied Gravity for So Long? [View article]
Well put. Some people think "they" tank the stock market right before big bond auctions to catch the "flight to safety" money.
Obviously, the FED can't support commercial or residential real estate prices (other than buying MBS). They can't do anything to create real jobs. Even 0% interest rates has not fended off a drop in loan demand and a retraction of credit by gun-shy banks.
But what the FED can do is this: keep interest rates low in the bond market (by directly or indirectly buying) and, funneling lots of money to its bidders in the world of high finance to keep buying the S&P futures.
Heck, just two weeks ago the S&P was about to break 1080 and out of nowhere someone gobbled up a billion dollars in S&P futures to drive the market higher (see article on zero hedge).
It's rigged for now, can't be short. Just keep an eye on the exit and hope you get there in time.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
You have the opportunity to sell paper assets into the strength of this bear market rally. We're in the eye of the proverbial storm: a storm of deflationary debt implosion, a depression. The full impact of the depression has been mitigated by the FED saving the banks, 0% interest rates, and massive deficit spending. Eventually, inflation will roar, but for now, we're in a deflationary debt implosion. Look at how stocks are acting--bad. No zip. No zing. Sideways at best, down most likely. When? That will require a catalyst or series of catalysts.
And So It Begins: Futures Plunge as Fed Raises Discount Rate [View article]
But gold or oil on the dip. Nothing has changed. We're 12 trillion in debt and counting. Economy is teetering on the brink of a double dip. Quantitative Easing Pt 2 can't be far off. Big Trouble brewing with Iran.
Is the Bond Market Screaming Inflation? [View article]
Inflation. That is so 1970s with wage-price spirals, and demand exceeding supply for many things. This is a world of debt implosion, unemployment, reduced demand, excess capacity and excess supply. It's a world of deflation and depression.
What the bond market is saying is, hey, there isn't enough money in the world to buy all this debt. To which Ben Bernanke will say, okay, I'll buy the debt for the Fed (QE 2).
A Retrospective Look at U.S. 'Gold Reserves' [View article]
I'm glad of the conspiracy to suppress the price of gold and hide the fact that Fort Knox is full of Tungsten. Because, I am permitted to buy gold far more cheaply than I should with my flimsy dollars.
Black and Yellow Gold Getting Bruised [View article]
Where does Brad get his inflation figures from. I follow his columns at his web site and his so-called inflation rate has varied from 2-8% jus tin the past few months.
Kind of pointless to state that there are sellers in the futures markets in oil and gold given that both are off 10% in the past month. That's history. Question is, what will happen in a month and a year?
ISM Indicates Classic Recovery Mode [View article]
I'd interpret the data differently. A strong bounce off a low bottom. Call it the the "peak" in a double-dip depression. I haven't heard much positive economically from Asia, Europe, or the USA. Australia looks solid. The stock market anticipated this brief "recovery" months ago. The markets are now discounting the the next dip down.
There was high volume selling of stock market leaders in the US as well as another leg higher in the dollar. Given the uninterrupted run up since last March's lows, and, declining economic conditions, a couple of negative catalysts could trigger more than a correction, but a mini-crash.
If there is rising concern about the viability of banks, or a currency crisis, or sovereign wealth crisis, the ripple effects would likely catalyze some serious unwinding.
My concern is that not only have stocks run ahead of fundamentals in most cases, and are ripe for profit taking, but worse times lay ahead, as soon as the Spring and Summer, and the market is only now factoring in something of a double-dip recession.
With everything over-sold I'd hang back a week or two and look to get short.
Gold Production Levels Should Provide Solid Price Support Ahead [View article]
I posted on my Instablog a table from some research outfit that estimated 700 tones of excess supply in 2010, in spite of gold production plateauing. However, I don't believe in their "surplus" supply figures because some of their input numbers are questionable.
Specifically, they assume a very high level of scrap gold continuing to come onto the market, and no uptick in central bank purchases. In addition, levels of purchases by individuals, organizations, etc are likely underestimated, perhaps dramatically.
Physical Palladium: An ETF Superstar From the Start [View article]
On the Rigged Stock Market Rally(s) [View article]
On the Rigged Stock Market Rally(s) [View article]
Zero Hedge has been trying to get to the bottom of who has been soaking up the hundreds of billions of US Treasury supply per quarter. Other central banks? Large institutions acting on behest of the FED to make the auctions look good?
All we know is what is we know using simple mathematics. Bad loans are being taken off the balance sheets of big banks by the FED printing money. Huge Treasury supply is being absorbed by money printing by a variety of central banks. The FED is directly supporting the mortgage market by absorbing mortgage backed securities. The stock market has been pulled out of the abyss and walked up for the past year. In short, asset prices are being supported across the board by printing money.
Officially sanctioned assets are stocks, real estate, and bonds. Non-approved assets include commodities (big brother does not approve of $2000 gold, or $100 oil, etc) or short sales.
How Have U.S. Stocks Defied Gravity for So Long? [View article]
Obviously, the FED can't support commercial or residential real estate prices (other than buying MBS). They can't do anything to create real jobs. Even 0% interest rates has not fended off a drop in loan demand and a retraction of credit by gun-shy banks.
But what the FED can do is this: keep interest rates low in the bond market (by directly or indirectly buying) and, funneling lots of money to its bidders in the world of high finance to keep buying the S&P futures.
Heck, just two weeks ago the S&P was about to break 1080 and out of nowhere someone gobbled up a billion dollars in S&P futures to drive the market higher (see article on zero hedge).
It's rigged for now, can't be short. Just keep an eye on the exit and hope you get there in time.
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
The Upside of Not Paying Your Mortgage [View article]
And So It Begins: Futures Plunge as Fed Raises Discount Rate [View article]
Is the Bond Market Screaming Inflation? [View article]
What the bond market is saying is, hey, there isn't enough money in the world to buy all this debt. To which Ben Bernanke will say, okay, I'll buy the debt for the Fed (QE 2).
What's Up With Gold? [View article]
A Retrospective Look at U.S. 'Gold Reserves' [View article]
Gold Price Holds Up for Non-U.S. Investors [View article]
Black and Yellow Gold Getting Bruised [View article]
Kind of pointless to state that there are sellers in the futures markets in oil and gold given that both are off 10% in the past month. That's history. Question is, what will happen in a month and a year?
ISM Indicates Classic Recovery Mode [View article]
Risk Trade Is Not Done [View article]
If there is rising concern about the viability of banks, or a currency crisis, or sovereign wealth crisis, the ripple effects would likely catalyze some serious unwinding.
My concern is that not only have stocks run ahead of fundamentals in most cases, and are ripe for profit taking, but worse times lay ahead, as soon as the Spring and Summer, and the market is only now factoring in something of a double-dip recession.
With everything over-sold I'd hang back a week or two and look to get short.
Gold Production Levels Should Provide Solid Price Support Ahead [View article]
Specifically, they assume a very high level of scrap gold continuing to come onto the market, and no uptick in central bank purchases. In addition, levels of purchases by individuals, organizations, etc are likely underestimated, perhaps dramatically.