Dr. O

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

>>I might be missing a zero but I come up with 285,120,000,000 in gold 8100 tons at 1100 per oz. that is 285 billion not much to get excited about.<<

I think you're correct. I couldn't find a calculator with scientific notation, and did my best to count zeros. So even 8100 tonnes of gold is only a couple hundred billion dollars. I guess we are broke, completely. Seems to me that if all the gold in the world is only worth a couple trillion dollars, that the gold is vastly undervalued. I mean, Obama pissed away a trillion dollars on a stimulus bill in like a month. And bailing out the banks cost a trillion last fall. All that paper backed by nothing.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

>>The Fed just green-lighted a continued fall in the dollar and rise in commodity prices, and worse, they don’t seem to care.<<

A crazy thought. The US (a financial basket case, granted), still is the largest known holder of gold in the world (about 8100 tons). I know, some think the gold is no longer "there" (conspiracy theorists).

Sooooo, who makes the most money if the price of gold goes up? The USA, or, whoever controls that 8100 tons of gold. Even at current prices, its only a few trillion dollars, but, its something.

And, unlike oil, and other stuff we need, rising gold prices don't hurt anyone, except brides in India. The rest of you can use Palladium, lol.

Gold Soars to New Highs

I feel like watching Austin Power's in "Goldmember" again. Gold and gold stocks are just so right here.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I've noticed the largest volume in SPY, IWM and QQQQ since March-April in the past couple of weeks. This volume surge coincides with good earnings and a highly extended and tired intermediate-term uptrend in the market. In short, "they're" selling the good news, the markets are under distribution, and heading lower.

The first index to go has been the Russell 2000. There's no catalyst other than profit taking to take the markets lower, it's not like last year with a near collapse of the financial system. But problems remain in the banking system, loans continue to go bad, the economy is weak, and trust in government is low.

Since all assets are so highly correlated, I'm not sure if there's anywhere to hide except Treasury Bonds and, ironically, the US Dollar (for a little while). This may go on a month or so, then I'd be a buyer again. Frankly, I'm concerned with the future of the US Dollar and the US Bond market. When you owe more than you're worth, aren't you bankrupt?

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

What I meant to say this morning was....honestly, I forgot? I'm pretty sure it was bearish. Something about the price-volume action everyone has already noted. Distribution. Anyone else notice that the July "correction" bottomed at the 200 day SMA, which, at the time, was just underneath the 50 day SMA. However, since the market has gone up so much since then, the 200 day SMA for the indexes etc is way way lower than where we are now. Air pocket!

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

If they ran

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

<< The GDP improvement primarily reflected upturns in personal consumption, inventory investment, exports, and residential fixed investment, partly offset by a rise in imports, and a downturn in government spending. Cash for clunkers added about 1.66 points to the change in real GDP. (Econoday) <<

A crumby 3 billion dollar program (cash for clunkers) adds 1.66 points to GDP? Meaning without it GDP would have been 3.5-1.66 = 1.84%? How is it possible that a mere 3 billion dollar incentive program could leverage into that kind of data?

Anyway, like Dave said, we

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

A sea of red across the globe last night and this morning. Nothing scary, but noteworthy. Many good stocks and ETFs are still short and intermediate term overbought (AAPL, EWZ) while the market, as a whole, is short term oversold. Interesting dynamic. With end of month should see a meaningful rally attempt today. If the market gaps down, it will be bought, and sold, and bought again. Probably a flat to up day.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Distribution continues. Looks like our rally takes a breather. Rally into earnings and sell into them. The "blip" in the US Dollar provides a better entry point into precious metals, and a few of the truly great companies like AAPL. Just watching....

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

<<(AAPL) this stock will eclipse $500 based on the fundamentals. It's about as far fetched as Bank of America (BAC) to $20 sounded back in March 2009 and oil to $30 sounded back in August 2008.<<

I must apologize first. My stupidest moment on SA was to mock your $20 call on BAC when the stock was $6. Of course the massive market rally lifted many stocks to 100%+ gains. You mentioned at the time that you were playing BAC with at the money LEAPS.

At the moment, AAPL is overbought and the market is pulling back. Any options on AAPL strike you as a good way to play?

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Cramer had a conniption about AAPL as his lead segment on Mad Money. Disturbingly, he saw what I saw, and said what I said. Best big cap growth company by far. Slapped a "conservative" price target of 300 on it, although his math gets him to 390. Hopefully, with the market soft and technical resistance for AAPL still at 200, it won't take off before I can build a larger call position.

Apple Is Crucial: Charts Show Why

Was bumping up against 200 all day. I don't think that resistance will hold for too long tho. Maybe the best story and best stock out there among the big caps. Real growth! I'm long some Dec 220 calls and will add on weakness. Good luck!

How Bernanke Has Forced Brazil to Slap a Tax on Outside Investors

Like Japan, Europe, and the U.K., the USA is a slow growth, highly indebted country with low interest rates and cheap money. Where we differ is in the scale of our national debt, and the confidence or lack thereof that we and the world has in our elected officials to run the country sensibly. And the fiscal problems were the same under Bush and Greenspan as under Obama and Bernanke. There's no change in the trend, although the scale of the debt has increased dramatically.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Brazil was also concerned that their currency was appreciating too rapidly vs the US dollar, impairing their exports. Others are likewise concerned particularly the Europeans and Japanese. Given how "over-sold" the dollar is, this could trigger a quick short-covering rally like today.

I went to all cash today concerned that indeed the US dollar is over-sold, and stocks and commodities are over-bought. Seems like a good time for money managers up nicely on the year to take some profits. I'd be a buyer of a nice dip in GLD or FXA or EEM, etc.

Don't laugh, but I maintain a small position in AAPL DEC 220 calls taken today. For 2 bucks I'm long the best big cap growth story in the stock market. AAPL trades like it hit a wall at 200 (I know, it's technical). But in this market there are only so many good stories to buy and long-only managers are paid to be invested. So I speculate they'll still be biting at the AAPL.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

>>Not a single non-financial corporate has had revenue growth yoy<<

AAPL