Seeking Alpha

Dr. Paul Nunzio...'s  Instablog

Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D
Send Message
Earned a Doctorate in Pharmacy (Pharm.D.) in 2010 and Pre-Pharmacy/B.S. in Molecular Biology in 2006. Over six years of direct experience in translational research in oncology investigating the molecular/cellular mechanisms of carcinogenesis focused on biomarker identification and validation... More
My company:
Alpha BioPharma Advisers
My blog:
An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal To Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis On Gilead Sciences (GILD)
My book:
An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal To Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis On Gilead Sciences (GILD)
View Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D's Instablogs on:
  • GBIM: Technical Move Confirms Breakout Today


    see chart here:

    Broke out of symmetrical triangle, which projects a move to $12.73.

    Closed ABOVE 50day MVA, closed above the top of ichimoku cloud, downtrend line, formed a new higher high, higher low confirming new trend. RSI broke out confirming todays break out.

    Resistance at $8.26 (100 day MVA), and $8.44 fib 38.2% retracement. Close above $8.44 opens up $9.69 and $10.94 50% and 61.8% Fib's.

    Disclosure: The author is long GBIM, GILD.

    Dec 09 4:56 PM | Link | Comment!

    Large >25% gain in turbulent equity market, taking some profits, will reenter on any meanigful retraceement. Still amintaining some long exposure.

    Disclosure: The author is long INCY.

    Additional disclosure: Long via options spreads, closed long calls.

    Oct 30 12:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • $4.1B Sovaldi Sales Est. Wrong, Heres Why, We Think

    While it is not possible to know for certain the sources of error that led to the $4.1B est. We hypothesize that it was driven by 3 things:

    1. Fewer V.A. and Medicaid Patients starting on Sovaldi, which implies stronger warehousing awaiting for the Sovaldi/LDP FDC launch.

    2. Discounting may have been heavier during 2Q14 versus 1Q14.

    3. Our inventory build estimate was ~+$300M too high which was based on our WW sales estimate of demand of $3.3-$3.5B. So if we adjusted for inventory alone it would have brought our Sales model down to $3.8B from $4.1B. And adjusting for the possibility of heavier discounting ~10%= another -$300M yields a $3.5B number.

    Disclosure: The author is long GILD.

    Tags: GILD
    Jul 24 6:09 PM | Link | 3 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.