Seeking Alpha

Dr. Paul Nunzio...'s  Instablog

Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D
Send Message
Earned a Doctorate in Pharmacy (Pharm.D.) in 2010 and Pre-Pharmacy/B.S. in Molecular Biology in 2006. Over six years of direct experience in translational research in oncology investigating the molecular/cellular mechanisms of carcinogenesis focused on biomarker identification and validation... More
My company:
Alpha BioPharma Advisers
My blog:
An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal To Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis On Gilead Sciences (GILD)
My book:
An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal To Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis On Gilead Sciences (GILD)
View Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D's Instablogs on:
  • $4.1B Sovaldi Sales Est. Wrong, Heres Why, We Think

    While it is not possible to know for certain the sources of error that led to the $4.1B est. We hypothesize that it was driven by 3 things:

    1. Fewer V.A. and Medicaid Patients starting on Sovaldi, which implies stronger warehousing awaiting for the Sovaldi/LDP FDC launch.

    2. Discounting may have been heavier during 2Q14 versus 1Q14.

    3. Our inventory build estimate was ~+$300M too high which was based on our WW sales estimate of demand of $3.3-$3.5B. So if we adjusted for inventory alone it would have brought our Sales model down to $3.8B from $4.1B. And adjusting for the possibility of heavier discounting ~10%= another -$300M yields a $3.5B number.

    Disclosure: The author is long GILD.

    Tags: GILD
    Jul 24 6:09 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Sovaldi And GILD 2Q $4.1B Possible, $3.5B Minimum

    Updated Sovaldi Model shows $4.1B in Sales, translating into $6.5Bnet prouct REVS, and $1.975 in earnings. $3.5B in Sovaldi sales appears to be the minimum possible, IMS data show $2.9B, but only captured 0.88 of sales last qtr, adjusting for that factor, plus ex-US sales, inventory build, and V.A. adding Sovaldi in April to formulary, additional access to Sovaldi from new state Medicaid programs, and correctional systems, we calculate $4.1B for our model.

    Disclosure: The author is long GILD.

    Jul 18 11:20 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Shire (SHPG) Bid Came In As Expected

    Abbvie (NYSE:ABBV) came in right on target, only 0.80 Pounds Off From Our 5400 Pence Target At 5320 Pence. Congrats to Shire management for a job well done maximizing shareholder value, and congrats to ABBV, this changes a lot! From 2016 and beyond, ABBV may be able to truly maximize its balance sheet and diversify away from Humira finally. More to come later.

    Disclosure: The author is long SHPG, SHPG, ABBV, NPSP.

    Tags: ABBV, SHPG
    Jul 14 4:38 AM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.