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Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D
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Earned a Doctorate in Pharmacy (Pharm.D.) in 2010 and Pre-Pharmacy/B.S. in Molecular Biology in 2006. Over six years of direct experience in translational research in oncology investigating the molecular/cellular mechanisms of carcinogenesis focused on biomarker identification and validation... More
My company:
Alpha BioPharma Advisers
My blog:
An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal To Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis On Gilead Sciences (GILD)
My book:
An Evidence-Driven Rebuttal To Morgan Stanley & Goldman Sachs Bearish Thesis On Gilead Sciences (GILD)
View Dr. Paul Nunzio DeSantis, Pharm.D's Instablogs on:
  • $4.1B Sovaldi Sales Est. Wrong, Heres Why, We Think

    While it is not possible to know for certain the sources of error that led to the $4.1B est. We hypothesize that it was driven by 3 things:

    1. Fewer V.A. and Medicaid Patients starting on Sovaldi, which implies stronger warehousing awaiting for the Sovaldi/LDP FDC launch.

    2. Discounting may have been heavier during 2Q14 versus 1Q14.

    3. Our inventory build estimate was ~+$300M too high which was based on our WW sales estimate of demand of $3.3-$3.5B. So if we adjusted for inventory alone it would have brought our Sales model down to $3.8B from $4.1B. And adjusting for the possibility of heavier discounting ~10%= another -$300M yields a $3.5B number.

    Disclosure: The author is long GILD.

    Tags: GILD
    Jul 24 6:09 PM | Link | 3 Comments
  • Sovaldi And GILD 2Q $4.1B Possible, $3.5B Minimum

    Updated Sovaldi Model shows $4.1B in Sales, translating into $6.5Bnet prouct REVS, and $1.975 in earnings. $3.5B in Sovaldi sales appears to be the minimum possible, IMS data show $2.9B, but only captured 0.88 of sales last qtr, adjusting for that factor, plus ex-US sales, inventory build, and V.A. adding Sovaldi in April to formulary, additional access to Sovaldi from new state Medicaid programs, and correctional systems, we calculate $4.1B for our model.

    Disclosure: The author is long GILD.

    Jul 18 11:20 AM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Shire (SHPG) Bid Came In As Expected

    Abbvie (NYSE:ABBV) came in right on target, only 0.80 Pounds Off From Our 5400 Pence Target At 5320 Pence. Congrats to Shire management for a job well done maximizing shareholder value, and congrats to ABBV, this changes a lot! From 2016 and beyond, ABBV may be able to truly maximize its balance sheet and diversify away from Humira finally. More to come later.

    Disclosure: The author is long SHPG, SHPG, ABBV, NPSP.

    Tags: ABBV, SHPG
    Jul 14 4:38 AM | Link | Comment!
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