Dr. Stephen Leeb

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

Douglas: thanks for the info. We are going to need a lot of creativity to solve the problem. Are the companies you mentioned public as I cannot find them on Bloomberg. Many thanks


On Oct 27 05:43 PM Douglas Hvistendahl wrote:

> For the towers, look at Accoya. A dutch company (Accsys) has developed
> a method to treat wood for much greater strength and durability.
> In the US, Titan Wood is their subsidiary. Accoya wood competes with
> steel and concrete for large structures. The wood is bulkier than
> steel for the same strength, but a tower is hollow due to the need
> for stiffness. By just having the walls thicker, you can get the
> same basic results.
>
> Also, a company named Sanderson Engine Development has an improved
> mechanism, allowing better hydraulic pumps, air motors, etc. This
> would allow the heavy generators to be at the bottom, with a lighter
> mechanism at the top. I believe it is in development stage for one
> wind turbine at present.
>
> Not saying it would be easy, saying it is possible.

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

Batpr: Many thanks for the info on fiber and resin binder. I knew these materials were used but was not aware of how much. That is really useful information.


On Oct 27 02:19 PM bartpr wrote:

> steel is used a the base for holding the blades. the blades are carbon
> fiber and a cured resin because steel would be too heavy. the size
> of the blades are huge compared to the base tower. the mass of the
> blades are many times that of the base mass. use of these blades
> requires significant increase in production of carbon fiber and the
> resin binder.
> curing of the blades takes a long time because time required in the
> mold to avoid distortion.
>
> actual user of glass fiber, carbon fiber, and binder resins.

3 Stocks that Will Ride the Wind Energy Boom

Thanks Alan: The numbers I used were net of recycling. In other words, the supply that meets yearly demand includes recycling. And because recycling is much cheaper than new manufacturing it is a pretty safe assumption that we are recycling as much as possible - indeed last year I think we recycled over 100 percent of auto's sold. You are right about magnets and the grid. With the grid - believe it or not - there may be issues with copper.


On Oct 27 01:22 PM Alan Young wrote:

> The author has a good point, but misses a couple of tricks.
>
> For iron supply, there will be lots of recycling. Scrapped cargo
> ships which used to carry ore, for example (no joke!). Steel recycling
> specialists such as SCHN and SMS could do better than miners, since
> they produce more steel with less energy.
>
> The other thing needed for large wind farms to be feasible is an
> updated buildout of the power transmission grid. That's another whole
> sector of stocks that are overdue for a rally.
>
> @Doubleguns: certainly, China will ship magnets. They want the manufacturing
> business; that's why they don't want to export the raw materials.

3 Promising Gold Stocks

I should have made it clear that Barrick is under new management. The first decision by the new CEO was not to just stop hedging but to eliminate all previous hedges. For that purposes the company raised several billion dollars. In view of the company's long term history of hedging this was certainly a courageous decision - which had to be approved by a board that has favored hedging for about a generation. I think it likely that Barrick be revalued relative to other majors in the next six months. They have wonderful gold and PGM properties. As for Nova - see my comment above. This is a junior with world class deposits of gold and copper and the backing of very deep pockets including Barrick. As an aside the company fended off a takeover by Barrick, who was willing to pay 20 for the company pre credit crisis. Today the company's assets are better defined than then but we doubt that the new stakeholders would even listen to a bid of 20. It has home run potential but is risky.


On Oct 13 01:54 PM Jeff Nielson wrote:

> Agreed, E.D. If this is the best the author can come up with among
> precious metals miners, he should stick with pumping Wall Street
> banks.
>
> Barrick has "eliminated its hedging" a few times already, and many
> are unconvinced that its latest declaration of being "unhedged" is
> any more accurate.
>
> NG requires BILLIONS to get its project(s) off the ground. Yes, partnership
> with Barrick obviously helps, but there are DOZENS of lucrative deposits
> all over the Earth which require far LESS capital AND will provide
> superior rates of return.
>
> The vast majority of upside-potential in this sector is among the
> JUNIOR miners (especially the junior producers). These companies
> require both more RESEARCH, and a better understanding of the sector
> than with the large-caps - which is why pseudo-'experts' on precious
> metals (like this author) scrupulously AVOID them.

3 Promising Gold Stocks

Soros, ASA, and Electrum, three pretty smart players are all major holders or buyers in NG. Have not looked at the two you mentioned but will. Thanks for the comment.


On Oct 13 12:15 PM Ridge Hill Capital wrote:

> novagold is a dog........insider selling ...bark bark
>
> fortuna silver and dynasty mines
>
> to the moon

3 Promising Gold Stocks

Yes there is some information we give away for free, which is available free on the Internet. There is other information for which we charge. If you have an honest comment - critical or otherwise I would love to hear it. If you want to vent in a ludicrous way, save it.


On Oct 12 07:33 PM The EconomicJoker wrote:

> So wait, this is the same information that you charge people for?
> Not cool, doc. Not cool.

Inflation or Deflation? Invest in Gold

To Ker-eh Khar, I am sorry if you lost on Apex. We sold long before its recent troubles. If you are going to buy on the basis of a book and not follow up by buyiing the newsletter then it should behoove you to understand the basis for the recommendation, which in the case of Apex was the then controlling shareholder and CEO of the company. When he left so did we. As for deflation and gold, have you been paying any attention to what has been going on over the past decade. This has been a decade in which stocks are underwater, while zero coupon bonds, a traditional deflation hedge has appreciated at a 14 percent annualized rate, yet gold has trumped zero's by about 40 percent. (And just for the record the most recent YOY CPI is in minus territory.) As for American hegemony, as I write this Chindia has likely surpassed the U.S. in terms of purchasing power parity. There may be good arguments against what I am saying but they do require a bit more thought than your comment.


On Sep 10 08:04 PM Keer-eh Khar wrote:

> Oh brother, you were doing OK till you mentioned "America's end of
> hegemony" -- Another America hater?
>
> Also, the silver stock you recommended with gusto in your book years
> ago, Apex Silver ended up going bankrupt and people who bought it
> on your recommendation in your book saw their investment go to zero.
>
>
> Furthermore, Mr. Leeb, your other predictions in the same book, like
> oil going to $250/barrel and defense industry stocks going through
> the roof were all wrong -- you were off the base by light years!
>
>
> Your assertion here in this article that deflation and inflation
> are both " 'faltions " and gold will do well in both environments
> is ridiculous. No real economist or trader is of the oinion that
> gold will do well in deflation. This is totally wrong. Yet you try
> to 'cover all your bases' by hedging your bets this way -- Gee, any
> 9 year old could say the same thing: deflation is same as inflation
> same as gold skyrocketing!
>
> Hyperinflation is on its way, not deflation, and if gold does well
> (which it will), it won't be because Leeb said os either!

Will Oil Be the Last Asset Standing?

Kimi, I think you have to realize that alternative energies are not free - they require energy to realize. For example, wind requires steel, which requires iron ore, which, of course, requires energy. Understanding the interrelationships among commodities is no easy task and one that is utterly critical and unfortunately one to which we are paying no attention. Energy conservation is still another example of something that cannot be isolatated. Consider that the more successful we are at conservation, the less oil costs of oil, etc. relative to what it would have been without conservation, and hence the greater the demand. You are right that China is consuming less energy per unit growth but that is a characteristic of every economy as it develops. Just one factoid to consider, however, is that China is now the largest car market on the planet. Another is the number of people with under $2 a day to live on - over 2 billion. Finding the path to grow in a this commodity constrained world, whille perhaps not impossible, is going to be very difficult and require a lot more than replacing energy inefficient lights, etc.

Clarifying America's No-Win Economic Dilemma

Many good points - unfortunately. I believe however that the "elites" are more a product of a complex society than a reflection of something inherently evil about those with power. I agree wholeheartedly that America still has many things going for it and believe that if we embark on the right path quickly we can still reestablish ourselves in the world. I believe the starting point will have to be a massive commitment to alternative energies. We still have the resources to execute but the time is getting very short. Again thanks for all your thoughtful points.


On Aug 18 06:24 AM User 353732 wrote:

> America's governing elites have, through a series of explicit willed
> choices, magnified American weaknesses and crippled American strengths.
> For the political, financial and media bosses, the only thing that
> matters is maximizing their wealth, political domination and personal
> gratification. There is now a tremendous divergence between the ruling
> bosses and the American people ,esp. the Middle Class.
> The bosses know a big thing that most of the people cannot or dare
> not grasp: The elites can and will increase even as America decreases.
> The ruling elites of America identify far more closely with the equally
> corrupt and self aggrandizing elites of China and Russia than they
> do with the American middle class, which has become an object of
> contempt and a lowing, mooing herd to be milked , slaughtered and
> skinned.
> Ameican elites are among the most skilled in monetizing both American
> decline and the opportunites for personal reward from globalization.The
> debasing and selling out of America has been and continues to be
> a vastly profitable enterprise for the the few hundred thousand men
> and women (and their families and cronies) who rule the US .
>
> America still has 4 formidable strategic advantages:
> 1. Our combined endowment of agricultural, water, mineral and energy
> resources and related technologies is the greatest in the world.
> If the US wanted, it could be the largest exporter of both energy
> and food in the world but the elites decree that American resources
> cannot be used for the benefit of the American and force the Nation
> to import at substantial cost in income, wealth and jobs that which
> we should be exporting.
> 2. American global leadership in a suite of technologies ranging
> from life sciences, to aeronautics and space, to bioinformatics
> to robotics is still considerable but each year it diminishes not
> only because the world seeks to catch up but more importantly because
> of the systematic degrading of our educational system at every level
> since the 1960s. Again this degrading is a willed choice of the elites.
>
> 3. The American Middle class, demoralized and compressing rapidly,
> still is the greatest repository of entrpreneurial and professional
> ideas and execution ability in the world. If allowed , it can once
> again propel economic growth and job creation and expand the productive
> economy. Again, by a series of willed and increasingly malign choices,
> the elites have embarked on a war of supression against the Middle
> Class and have deliberately chosen to feed the parasitic economy
> while starving the productive economy. The object of class warfare
> is to to trap and herd the Middle Class in a cruel and relentless
> pincer between the upper class and the growing lower class.
> With the consent of the political bosses and the applause of the
> media bosses, Wall St has become the largest organized crime syndicate
> the world has ever seen, dwarfing by far the Russian mafia or the
> Latin American drug cartels
> 4. America's military has unmatched capacity to project force globally,
> rapidly and effectively and its officer class is true to the Constitution
> . Yet the elites seek every to vilify the men and women who have
> served and serve.Veterans are abused in public for daring to express
> their opinions. Never in US history has the gap between the values
> of the political, media and financial elites and those of the officer
> class been greater. The elites shred the very Constitution that
> the military has sworn to defend.
>
> There are many bad reasons why America should not continue to be
> a free, safe, and prosperous middle class society and a global hyperpower.
> The elites have discovered all of them. There is not, however, a
> single good reason given the 4 strategic advantages of this Nation.
>

Clarifying America's No-Win Economic Dilemma

Many thanks for your thoughtful comments. I agree that foreign investments are also good hedges - especially those in resource rich countries such as Brazil, Canada and Australia. In terms of the relative size of the U.S. vs Chindia, I used purchasing power as my measure rather than dollar measures. In terms of PPP Chindia has probably already passed the U.S. Finally your comment on productivity is interesting, but I think the productivity would have to be with respect to commodities, which translated means using less commodities to support our standard of living. That is possible in the short term but ultimately we will need to find substitutes. I have spent quite a bit of time thinking about this issue and did my best to present my case in my most recent book. The bottom line is we desperately need to develop alternative energies. Again many thanks for your thoughts.


On Aug 18 06:20 AM Robert Martorana wrote:

>
> Dr. Leeb:
>
> This is a well-thought out article, and I agree with your core assumptions.
>
>
> Most importantly, I agree with your core premises about global demand
> and inflation, and believe that commodities should be included in
> any inflation basket. seekingalpha.com/artic...
> I especially liked your reference to Switzerland, which has become
> irrelevant for global commodity demand. An exaggeration, to be sure,
> but it drives the point home in a painfully concrete way. You've
> hit a sensitive patriotic nerve, and I bristle at the candor: Has
> America petered away its global competitive edge for a Hummer and
> a McMansion? The truth hurts.
>
> I must respectfully disagree, however, that commodities automatically
> limit growth. Past statistical correlations are just that--correlations.
> If economic growth is driven by innovation and productivity, a society
> can afford to pay more for commodities as the population expands.
> China and India are good examples of this: As incomes grow, people
> can afford more oil, steel, cement, beef, etc. Commodity prices can
> rise in real terms because of global growth, and this should not
> cause inflation unless monetary policy is loose.
>
> Of course today's U.S. monetary policy is extremely loose, as America
> pulls out all stops to reflate its debt-laden economy. This risks
> not only inflation, but long-term erosion in the U.S. dollar.
>
> Therefore, Moon Kil Woong, rightly points out that your commodity
> hedge should include non-dollar assets. That's why I include non-dollar
> bonds and a currency short in my inflation basket. seekingalpha.com/artic...
> I also am looking at shorting the long bond, once Fed support for
> dissipates. (Quant easing is supporting treasury auctions, as Zero
> Hedge has repeatedly pointed out. seekingalpha.com/artic...)
> As Jim Grant says, long-term U.S. bonds are "return- free risk."
>
>
> I must also question your assumptions about "real GDP" in China and
> India. You noted that China and India combined now have a larger
> real GDP than the U.S. According to the CIA Factbook, U.S. GDP in
> 2008 was $14.3 trillion, while China was $7.8 and India was $3.3
> https://cia.gov/library/public...;countryCode=xx&am...
>
> Wikipedia's numbers were virtually identical, though it lists India's
> GDP as just $1.2 billion. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)
>
>
> This puts U.S. GDP 29% higher than China and India. For these countries
> to be larger, you must be adjusting their GDP upwards by 30%+ to
> make their "real" GDP larger than the U.S.
>
> And before we write off the U.S. as irrelevant to global commodity
> demand, we must remember that the economy is depressed, and reflation
> WILL take hold at some point. Cheap money and massive deficits will
> boost our $14 trillion economy, and a small change in this number
> has a big impact on global markets.
>
> Finally, I will note that your portfolio strategy should include
> some defensive stocks that will flourish in any economic environment.
> Health care fits the bill, and bullish earnings revisions make them
> timely. seekingalpha.com/artic...
>
>
> An excellent, sobering article.
> Keep it coming!
> Rob

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Many thanks for the comments – both good and bad. I realized that I left off something very important which I think should be emphasized. Higher commodities will mean lower margins for U.S. companies, which along with slow U.S. consumer growth will be a massive drag on profits. In other words, higher commodity prices the result of fast growth in the emerging markets – now a much larger share of the world’s economic pie than U.S. – are a de facto tax on America.

Expect Emerging Markets to Maintain Growth Rates

As a matter of fact TCI Enterprises LLC best known for my publication The Complete Investor trademarked "Chindia" on October 15, 2004. It can be easily verified by searching the United States Patent and Trademark Office's website. 78500658.

Book Review: 'Game Over' by Stephen Leeb

Thank you very much for your kind words. Your commends helps me feel like I am truly helping individual investors become more aware of the upcoming volatility. Good luck with your investment choices.

Sincerely,
Stephen Leeb, PhD

Commodities: A Wise Long Term Investment

Many thanks to all that commented - even those that did not agree. One point I want to address is that if the economy were to slip - certainly a possiblity given the huge headwinds facing the consumer - gasoline prices, smaller credit cards limits, and, of course unemployment and balance sheet issues - then commodities would also likely slip at least until the Fed ramped up the money printing to even more frantic pace. So if you believe in commodites as I do make sure you own a bunch of gold too. Remember 2008 when gold outperformed all other commodities - indeed actually posted a gain for the year.