Dr. Stephen Leeb

Will Oil Be the Last Asset Standing?

Kimi, I think you have to realize that alternative energies are not free - they require energy to realize. For example, wind requires steel, which requires iron ore, which, of course, requires energy. Understanding the interrelationships among commodities is no easy task and one that is utterly critical and unfortunately one to which we are paying no attention. Energy conservation is still another example of something that cannot be isolatated. Consider that the more successful we are at conservation, the less oil costs of oil, etc. relative to what it would have been without conservation, and hence the greater the demand. You are right that China is consuming less energy per unit growth but that is a characteristic of every economy as it develops. Just one factoid to consider, however, is that China is now the largest car market on the planet. Another is the number of people with under $2 a day to live on - over 2 billion. Finding the path to grow in a this commodity constrained world, whille perhaps not impossible, is going to be very difficult and require a lot more than replacing energy inefficient lights, etc.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Many thanks for the comments – both good and bad. I realized that I left off something very important which I think should be emphasized. Higher commodities will mean lower margins for U.S. companies, which along with slow U.S. consumer growth will be a massive drag on profits. In other words, higher commodity prices the result of fast growth in the emerging markets – now a much larger share of the world’s economic pie than U.S. – are a de facto tax on America.

Commodities: A Wise Long Term Investment

Many thanks to all that commented - even those that did not agree. One point I want to address is that if the economy were to slip - certainly a possiblity given the huge headwinds facing the consumer - gasoline prices, smaller credit cards limits, and, of course unemployment and balance sheet issues - then commodities would also likely slip at least until the Fed ramped up the money printing to even more frantic pace. So if you believe in commodites as I do make sure you own a bunch of gold too. Remember 2008 when gold outperformed all other commodities - indeed actually posted a gain for the year.