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Dr. Terry Allen  

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  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    I have spent my entire Sunday afternoon digesting this fine article and reading every comment (whew!). I am impressed that the author is at his computer and responding to comments on this same afternoon.

    For many years, I have recommended XIV (and SVXY, because it has options) in my TerrysTips options newsletter. I was delighted to find someone who agreed with me. However, I believe that ZIV is a better long-term holding than XIV. It has a similar upward inclination because of contango but does far better when fear raises its ugly head and crushes XIV. Last week, for example, when fear escalated because of the crisis in Greece, XIV and SVXY each fell 16.5% while ZIV lost only 4%. This is typical in down markets. For the last two years, ZIV has outperformed XIV, even though this has been a relatively good stretch for XIV.

    I also might point out that the recent comment of the extreme volatility of XIV made by Allan Harris was essentially nothing more than a plug for his newsletter (if you click on the link at the end).

    Sorry this is so long, but I did not have time to make it shorter.
    Jul 5, 2015. 05:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • XIV, Timing Is Everything [View instapost]
    So what is the algorithm? An explanation seems to be missing.
    Jul 5, 2015. 04:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P 500 Is A Bad Benchmark [View article]
    Where did you get your numbers for the interesting but apparently totally incorrect graph? The S&P 500 rose over 30% in 2013 yet your graph shows it going up about 10%. The S&P 500 grew twice as much in 2013 as it did in 2014 but your graph shows nearly the opposite.
    Feb 7, 2015. 07:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigantic Difference Between S&P 500 And Target-Date Mutual Fund Performance [View article]
    I would do it if the numbers were available. See my comments above.
    Jun 28, 2014. 03:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigantic Difference Between S&P 500 And Target-Date Mutual Fund Performance [View article]
    Please see my response to deancope above - over a 5-year period including the biggest one-year market collapse in this century, SPY still did better than any target-date fund.
    Jun 28, 2014. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigantic Difference Between S&P 500 And Target-Date Mutual Fund Performance [View article]
    I checked back to see if what you say might be true. The earliest S&P Target-Date Scorecard was for the years 2006-2010 which included the 37.22% drop in the S&P 500 in 2008. The annualized gain for the S&P 500 over those 5 years was 5.2%. There was not a single target-date fund that did that well, although many were close, much closer than they were in the most recent 5-year bull market. Bottom line, however, the numbers were nowhere near being reversed. SPY beat every target-date over that period as well.
    Jun 28, 2014. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigantic Difference Between S&P 500 And Target-Date Mutual Fund Performance [View article]
    The Wall Street media machine would love for us all to believe exactly what you have said. But a worker who must choose between investment alternatives available to him in his company's 401(k) plan essentially must decide whether to bet on the stock market or not. Over the long run, buying SPY is a far better choice than any target fund. The market does manage to go up over the long run but bonds have yielded essentially nothing for a very long time. When the person retires, he can close out his 401(k) and choose the allocation that best suits him at that time. With his money in SPY over his working years, he will undoubtedly be far ahead with his SPY returns than he would with any target fund.
    Jun 28, 2014. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Gigantic Difference Between S&P 500 And Target-Date Mutual Fund Performance [View article]
    I stand corrected. Thank you. I have asked Seeking Alpha to change the number.
    Jun 27, 2014. 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike: Solid Company, Promising Future - And Overpriced Stock? [View article]
    Very well researched and written article. Thank you. I have recommended reading it to my subscribers (to my Terry;s Tips newsletter). We carry out an options portfolio using NKE as the underlying that made 70% over the past six months, and we are looking forward to picking up more, especially if the stock moves sideways for a while as you suggest it might.
    Jan 18, 2014. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Dow Overstates Actual Market Performance [View article]
    This Forbes article cites the 5.3% as well as Buffett's belief that future years will be lower - http://onforb.es/1ixNXFK
    Dec 3, 2013. 11:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Dow Overstates Actual Market Performance [View article]
    Where did you get your 4.5% dividend figure? It is closer to 2%, or just about how much the fees are for anyone with an equity mutual fund, bringing the net annual gain back to 5.3%.
    Dec 2, 2013. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Dow Overstates Actual Market Performance [View article]
    The 5.3% average market growth of the U.S. stock market over the last 100 years was calculated by Warren Buffett and published in his 2008 letter to stockholders. Do you consider him to be just "other people?" Your 10% figure is exactly what the Wall Street media machine is trying to foist on the gullible public - I guess they succeeded with you at least.
    Dec 2, 2013. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow 16,000 And The IBM Impact [View article]
    The Dow should go the way of the buggy whip. The only company that has been in the Dow since the beginning is GE. Since the turn of the century, GE has fallen by 50%. If it were the only company in the Dow, we would be looking at a Dow of 6000 instead of 16,000. They only goosed up the Dow by adding high-flyers and eliminating decaying companies, all part of Wall Streets propaganda machine.
    Nov 28, 2013. 01:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Dow Is An Imprecise Measure Of The Market [View article]
    Okay, let's take 15 years. The S&P500 has gone up an average of 4.2% compounded annually (calculate it yourself). That doesn't count
    dividends (which were taxed as ordinary income for most of those years so really get cut in half) but it also does not count the fees that managers extract for managing your money. And the total does not take into effect that the 500 companies are an all-star selection with the weak ones being removed and replaced by others which are growing faster. Bottom line, the market has not performed half as well as Wall Street propaganda would lead us to believe.
    Sep 13, 2013. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Dow Is An Imprecise Measure Of The Market [View article]
    The S&P 500 is juiced up to all-star status just like the Dow. A couple of times every year, weak companies are dropped from the index and stronger ones added to it. Of course their records would look similar.
    Sep 11, 2013. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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221 Comments
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