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Dr. Terry Allen

 
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  • Barron's Article Creates Great Buying Opportunity For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    I hope you didn't pay too much for the puts and were quick to close them out early in the day on Thursday. We closed out the spread I suggested for a 26% gain after commissions.
    Aug 8, 2013. 10:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Article Creates Great Buying Opportunity For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    No problem. I did read your article and thought it was good. Great minds must think alike. Now we have to wait until tomorrow to see if we were so smart or not so smart. So much of the market is dependent on unforseeable unexpected news events beyond our control.
    Aug 6, 2013. 09:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Article Creates Great Buying Opportunity For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    They are not Aug 2 calls but the weekly calls that expire 8/9/13 - they are typically called Aug2-13 77.5 calls (GMCR130809C77.5). I own large numbers of Dec-13 67.5 calls and have sold the Aug2 weekly calls at the 77.5, 80, and 82.5 strikes. With the stock up strongly since placing these orders Monday morning I am showing a 10% paper gain on the positions at this point.
    Aug 6, 2013. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Article Creates Great Buying Opportunity For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. I appreciate them.
    Aug 6, 2013. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's Article Creates Great Buying Opportunity For Green Mountain Coffee Roasters [View article]
    Oh, the power of Seeking Alpha. When my article was published, GMCR was down over $2 on the day, and in the few hours after it hit the Internet, the stock moved higher by over $4.50 and is now up over $2.50. It was either a remarkable coincidence or maybe lots of investors read these articles and act on what they read.
    Aug 5, 2013. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Seagate Technology Earnings Announcement This Week [View article]
    While most companies move higher going into earnings, when the last month or quarter has been up strongly as both GOOG and STX (and SBUX although I did not write a Seeking Alpha article about it but did for my subscribers), the stock is quite often down for the last two or three days before the announcement, so if you are placing a bearish bet, it might be best not to wait until the last minute. That proved to be very profitable for us with STX and SBUX this week.
    Jul 24, 2013. 10:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Seagate Technology Earnings Announcement This Week [View article]
    Nobody probably reads down this far, but I hope someone sees that I really nailed this one on the head. They beat estimates and the stock tanked anyway because expectations were so high. A court re-affirmed a $650 million lawsuit in their favor this week as well (which should have moved the stock higher).
    Jul 24, 2013. 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Google Earnings Announcement This Week [View article]
    You did better than we did. We bought 3 different spreads, 915 calls in three different months and sold weekly 910 calls which expired worthless. We averaged a gain of 58% on these plays. Not bad for one day.

    You must be feeling great today. Congrats.
    Jul 22, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Google Earnings Announcement This Week [View article]
    The short-term option prices often move higher just before the announcement and since you are short them you are seeing a paper loss. As I write this just after the announcement it looks like there will be a big drop rather than just a moderate one. I placed a bunch of diagonals at a credit so I don't care how far down it goes - a profit is guaranteed with those (I also bought naked long puts because I felt so strongly that it would drop after the announcement, but I couldn't recommend that in my article or they wouldn't have accepted it due to its being too much about options.
    Jul 18, 2013. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The JPMorgan And Wells Fargo Earnings Announcements This Week [View article]
    Yes, you are right. I have corrected it. Thanks.
    Jul 9, 2013. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The JPMorgan And Wells Fargo Earnings Announcements This Week [View article]
    Yes, Jul2-13 is the weekly expiring on Friday, July 12. This is the designation that is used on the trading platform at my broker, thinkorswim, and I understood was used by many other platforms as well.
    Jul 9, 2013. 10:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The JPMorgan And Wells Fargo Earnings Announcements This Week [View article]
    Thank you. I will try to fix it.
    Jul 9, 2013. 08:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Joy Global's Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Well, it's been eight years since my settling with the SEC (without admitting guilt, by the way), and ever since then at least 30 unregistered newsletters are having trades executed through Auto-Trade programs openly and daily. One would think that if the SEC intended to shut them down they would have done it long before now.

    The essence of Auto-Trade is that it is a contract between the customer and a broker (who is licensed). The newsletter does not participate in that contract, and is just publishing its trade recommendations for all its subscribers to see. The customer makes an agreement with the broker to honor those recommendations and execute trades in his or her account.

    Auto-Trade is something the broker offers, not the newsletter. The SEC can't go after the newsletter for expressing its opinions. The newsletter is not a party in the Auto-Trade contract.
    Jun 2, 2013. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Joy Global's Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I can only say that the SEC has one opinion but they clearly are not trying to enforce it with a lawsuit against any of the 30 or so newsletters who are openly participating in an Auto-Trade program with one or more brokers. There was a Supreme Court ruling that specifically exempted newsletter publishers from having to become registered investment advisors and the SEC would be going up against that ruling if they attempted to enforce their opinion.
    Jun 1, 2013. 12:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Joy Global's Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Update on the JOY trades I recommended. There were 4 calendar July-13 – May5-13 calendar spreads. In an actual account at thinkorswim, here are the numbers for what we paid for these spreads and what we sold them for: 52.5 strike (cost $1.35 sold for $1.20), 55 strike (cost $1.55 sold for $2.38), 57.5 strike (cost $1.50 sold for $1.61), and 60 strike (cost $1.19 sold for $1.00). We lost money on 2 spreads but gained on 2 others, and enjoyed one big gain. The total cost of our investment was $2236 and our net gain after paying $65 in commissions was $175, or 7.8% on our investment.

    While this was quite a bit lower than the returns we made on the earlier 11 investments that resulted in gains averaging about 19% (without a single loss), most people would be happy with 7.8% for a single week after commissions. The portfolio that we traded JOY in also made an investment in COST this week and the total portfolio gained 9.6% for the week.

    The odds of making 12 successful profitable trades without a single loss is comparable to flipping a coin and getting heads 12 times in a row. The odds of that happening are one out of 4096 times. Either I have been incredibly lucky or maybe there is some merit in the Expectations Model I have developed. It’s up to you to decide.

    There are no companies with weekly options available which are announcing earnings next week so I am taking the week off.
    May 31, 2013. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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