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Dr. Terry Allen

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  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I closed most of mine out today at $4.50, the intrinsic value. It shouldn't get any worse than that but if the stock should tank tomorrow, maybe you could get more. I wanted to cash in and use the money for another play.
    May 9 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    The stock went up so much that I was unable to get more than the intrinsic value of the spread - $4.50. After commissions, I made a little over 20% for the trade. Not bad considering I was totally wrong with the direction the stock would move after earnings (the SBUX deal was the unexpected development that pushed it so much higher, and of course, I could not have anticipated that). Thanks for asking.
    May 9 01:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    You are probably just fine with the May short call although you will have to wait an extra week to close out the spread. It might even be a better move because historically the stock moves higher in the days and weeks following the announcement although it has often moved lower right afterwards.
    May 8 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    The trade platform I use at thinkorswim calls the weekly options that expire on May 10 the May2-13 series. The symbol is GMCR130510C57. I know it is confusing.
    May 6 11:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Bill - I didn't read your article until after I had submitted mine - we both seemed to come out about the same place using different thought processes. Good work!

    The sheer magnitude of those short positions still causes me concern - those shorts have collectively lost over half a billion dollars since in the last quarter. That's real money.

    It will be interesting to watch this unfold. .
    May 6 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. I stayed up half the night writing it and now feel it was all worthwhile.
    May 6 04:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    The straddle is expensive and the stock needs to move over 14% in either direction to make a gain after earnings. Buying the straddle to sell before earnings in another story - the stock does often move one way (usually up) or the other in anticipation of the announcement.

    Good luck!
    May 6 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    True, my timing was off, but I am trying another options play for this week because it just might make 50%. Hopefully, Seeking Alpha will publish it. I have been long GMCR (with options) since before this article was written, and my gain is far greater than 20%.
    May 6 10:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Earnings Season Tells Us, So Far [View article]
    Thanks for your support. Unfortunately, almost no one read this - guess I needed a sexier title.
    Apr 24 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Earnings-Related Plays For Next Week [View article]
    These is only so much I can do, and I hate to wait out a full month for the short options to expire. So I focus on about 100 companies which have Weeklys available.
    Apr 21 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Earnings-Related Plays For Next Week [View article]
    Sorry I was not clear. The buy side on both of those spreads is in the May series and the sell side is the Apr4-13 Weeklys. Otherwise you have the trades correct.
    Apr 21 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Earnings-Related Plays For Next Week [View article]
    They speak to suppliers, retailers, or anyone else who might give them a clue, and then make the best guess they can, taking into consideration what the company gave as guidance, and adjusting from there. So it's not s 100% guess, but a guess nonetheless.
    Apr 19 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
    I think it is foolhardy to use the cautionary prospectus language to forecast that the ETN will eventually head to zero. After all, they are just trying to cover their asses. As long as contango continues to exist I will continue to have more of my invested capital in ZIV (and some in XIV) than any other ETN or ETF.

    Backwardation only occurs about 5% of the time so I am invested most of the time. My cost basis for VIX is less than $7 two years ago so even with yesterday's big drop, I'm up over 300%.
    Apr 16 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The First Week Of The April Earnings Season [View article]
    In one portfolio we bought an April 48 straddle (a put and a call) for $188 and when the stock went up we sold it for $228 before earnings were announced. In the other portfolio we bought May - Apr2 calendar spreads at the 48 and 49 strikes and half as many extra April 50 calls in case the stock went way up. It actually fell a bit but both the calendars were sold at a nice profit, enough to cover our loss on the extra calls.
    Apr 14 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The First Week Of The April Earnings Season [View article]
    Those expected move numbers came from earningswhispers.com. I did not check them but it looks like you are closer than they were.
    Apr 14 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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