Seeking Alpha

Dr. Terry Allen

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Dr. Terry Allen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • 3 Earnings-Related Plays For Next Week [View article]
    Sorry I was not clear. The buy side on both of those spreads is in the May series and the sell side is the Apr4-13 Weeklys. Otherwise you have the trades correct.
    Apr 21, 2013. 08:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Earnings-Related Plays For Next Week [View article]
    They speak to suppliers, retailers, or anyone else who might give them a clue, and then make the best guess they can, taking into consideration what the company gave as guidance, and adjusting from there. So it's not s 100% guess, but a guess nonetheless.
    Apr 19, 2013. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
    I think it is foolhardy to use the cautionary prospectus language to forecast that the ETN will eventually head to zero. After all, they are just trying to cover their asses. As long as contango continues to exist I will continue to have more of my invested capital in ZIV (and some in XIV) than any other ETN or ETF.

    Backwardation only occurs about 5% of the time so I am invested most of the time. My cost basis for VIX is less than $7 two years ago so even with yesterday's big drop, I'm up over 300%.
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The First Week Of The April Earnings Season [View article]
    In one portfolio we bought an April 48 straddle (a put and a call) for $188 and when the stock went up we sold it for $228 before earnings were announced. In the other portfolio we bought May - Apr2 calendar spreads at the 48 and 49 strikes and half as many extra April 50 calls in case the stock went way up. It actually fell a bit but both the calendars were sold at a nice profit, enough to cover our loss on the extra calls.
    Apr 14, 2013. 09:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The First Week Of The April Earnings Season [View article]
    Those expected move numbers came from earningswhispers.com. I did not check them but it looks like you are closer than they were.
    Apr 14, 2013. 09:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The JPMorgan Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Just a follow-up in case anyone reads down this far. I placed the option spreads outlined in the article in two actual portfolios, hoping for a flat or higher market. Even though JPM exceeded expectations and whisper numbers, the stock fell slightly after the announcement. Both portfolios gained over 12% after commissions.
    Apr 13, 2013. 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar - Long Run Major Winner That Just Might Tank Next Week [View article]
    I guess I hit the nail on the head when I guessed that it would tank this week.
    Feb 27, 2013. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Sorry for the typo - it has been corrected. I found the error on the second reading but did not know how to alter it (but now I do). Thanks for pointing out the error of my ways.
    Feb 25, 2013. 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Everyone seems to miss the critical point that if you structure in the depreciation of the $20,000 battery (if you want to have a car that can actually go on a trip of any size) that needs to be replaced every 8 years, this car costs more to operate than a gas-guzzler. This fact totally eliminates the entire reason for buying an all-electric car. If it isn't cheaper to operate, the entire model just doesn't work.
    Feb 19, 2013. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    Just a couple of words in my defense. First, options portfolios take big swings in value, and if you pick the right time to look at them, you might get an incorrect picture. For example, the Terry's Trades portfolio which was down 24.6% in the above post, two weeks later, now, is up 32.3%. Two others which were in the red are now ahead. Two portfolios are specifically designed to protect a person's other investments against a market crash, and the market has done nothing but go up since they were started (presumably the other investments prospered), and the Mighty Mesa was mathematically guaranteed to make money if Apple did anything other than fall over 10% in a single quarter, and as we all know, it did just that. Several other earnings-related spreads have made 30% - 62% in the last few weeks without a single loss, but did not appear in the portfolios that are listed above. Option prices are at 5-year lows, so collecting premium has been difficult lately, and earnings-related short-term plays have been a much better investment alternative than the above portfolios suggest.
    Feb 17, 2013. 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    I did the same but only made 63% after commissions - good day for both of us.
    Feb 13, 2013. 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    There are two diagonals, one in puts and one calls, and that makes it look more like a butterfly.
    Feb 11, 2013. 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    It looks ok to me - actual returns would probably be somewhat less because IV of the June options is likely to fall after the announcement and the graphing software assumes IV will remain the same.
    Feb 11, 2013. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    I continue to be fascinated by people who can ignore the numbers and find fault with a company that they hate for some reason known only to themselves (and maybe they don't even know why themselves). It is a wonderful lesson in life, and source of ongoing pleasure. Thanks for expressing your vitriol.
    Feb 8, 2013. 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    I don't quite agree with you. When the buy-write guys come on board, they are buying stock they really don't care much about owning for long and they sell in-the-money calls expiring in a few days with huge premium. This is new money coming into the market - their buys have a 100 delta and their short calls about a 70 delta. The stock moves higher on this buying.(prior to the announcement, as it did this week).

    After the announcement, the stock falls only a little bit so they will be exercised out, selling 100 deltas. That will depress the price of the stock on expiration Friday., as it did today.
    Feb 8, 2013. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
218 Comments
104 Likes