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Dr. Terry Allen

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  • How To Play The JPMorgan Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Just a follow-up in case anyone reads down this far. I placed the option spreads outlined in the article in two actual portfolios, hoping for a flat or higher market. Even though JPM exceeded expectations and whisper numbers, the stock fell slightly after the announcement. Both portfolios gained over 12% after commissions.
    Apr 13 02:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar - Long Run Major Winner That Just Might Tank Next Week [View article]
    I guess I hit the nail on the head when I guessed that it would tank this week.
    Feb 27 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Sorry for the typo - it has been corrected. I found the error on the second reading but did not know how to alter it (but now I do). Thanks for pointing out the error of my ways.
    Feb 25 01:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Everyone seems to miss the critical point that if you structure in the depreciation of the $20,000 battery (if you want to have a car that can actually go on a trip of any size) that needs to be replaced every 8 years, this car costs more to operate than a gas-guzzler. This fact totally eliminates the entire reason for buying an all-electric car. If it isn't cheaper to operate, the entire model just doesn't work.
    Feb 19 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    Just a couple of words in my defense. First, options portfolios take big swings in value, and if you pick the right time to look at them, you might get an incorrect picture. For example, the Terry's Trades portfolio which was down 24.6% in the above post, two weeks later, now, is up 32.3%. Two others which were in the red are now ahead. Two portfolios are specifically designed to protect a person's other investments against a market crash, and the market has done nothing but go up since they were started (presumably the other investments prospered), and the Mighty Mesa was mathematically guaranteed to make money if Apple did anything other than fall over 10% in a single quarter, and as we all know, it did just that. Several other earnings-related spreads have made 30% - 62% in the last few weeks without a single loss, but did not appear in the portfolios that are listed above. Option prices are at 5-year lows, so collecting premium has been difficult lately, and earnings-related short-term plays have been a much better investment alternative than the above portfolios suggest.
    Feb 17 09:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    I did the same but only made 63% after commissions - good day for both of us.
    Feb 13 03:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    There are two diagonals, one in puts and one calls, and that makes it look more like a butterfly.
    Feb 11 04:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Buffalo Wild Wings Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    It looks ok to me - actual returns would probably be somewhat less because IV of the June options is likely to fall after the announcement and the graphing software assumes IV will remain the same.
    Feb 11 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    I continue to be fascinated by people who can ignore the numbers and find fault with a company that they hate for some reason known only to themselves (and maybe they don't even know why themselves). It is a wonderful lesson in life, and source of ongoing pleasure. Thanks for expressing your vitriol.
    Feb 8 07:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    I don't quite agree with you. When the buy-write guys come on board, they are buying stock they really don't care much about owning for long and they sell in-the-money calls expiring in a few days with huge premium. This is new money coming into the market - their buys have a 100 delta and their short calls about a 70 delta. The stock moves higher on this buying.(prior to the announcement, as it did this week).

    After the announcement, the stock falls only a little bit so they will be exercised out, selling 100 deltas. That will depress the price of the stock on expiration Friday., as it did today.
    Feb 8 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    Yes, I was wrong about the direction of the stock move this week but my options positions made a solid gain, and I expect the stock will move higher next week. Friday's drop was largely due to the buy-write guys who let their stock be taken away from them. They also made a nice gain for the week (assuming they sold in-the-money calls as they usually do) but now they can move on to other opportunities.
    Feb 8 07:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar This Week [View article]
    If anyone had followed my advice carefully, they would have bought GMCR Jun-13 40 calls and sold Feb2-13 47 calls as I suggested, paying somewhere less than $7.00 (I paid $6.80 for this spread, just under the intrinsic value at the time). Right now, those options could be closed out for $8.75 for a 30% gain. If the stock rallies any more before tomorrow's close, the gain would be greater.
    Feb 7 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Baidu's Earnings Announcement On Monday [View article]
    Thanks. That's good to know in case I ever get to China (no plans yet).
    Feb 5 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar This Week [View article]
    Selling strangles short is something I never do. The margin requirements are horrendous and the risk even greater. This stock has moved by more than 27% after the earnings announcement two times in the last year. What happens to your strangle if that happens once again?
    Feb 5 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Yum Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    Right. It usually is, except when something crazy happens like what AAPL did a couple of weeks ago.
    Feb 1 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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