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Dr. Terry Allen

 
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  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    Yes, I was wrong about the direction of the stock move this week but my options positions made a solid gain, and I expect the stock will move higher next week. Friday's drop was largely due to the buy-write guys who let their stock be taken away from them. They also made a nice gain for the week (assuming they sold in-the-money calls as they usually do) but now they can move on to other opportunities.
    Feb 8 07:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar This Week [View article]
    If anyone had followed my advice carefully, they would have bought GMCR Jun-13 40 calls and sold Feb2-13 47 calls as I suggested, paying somewhere less than $7.00 (I paid $6.80 for this spread, just under the intrinsic value at the time). Right now, those options could be closed out for $8.75 for a 30% gain. If the stock rallies any more before tomorrow's close, the gain would be greater.
    Feb 7 12:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play Baidu's Earnings Announcement On Monday [View article]
    Thanks. That's good to know in case I ever get to China (no plans yet).
    Feb 5 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar This Week [View article]
    Selling strangles short is something I never do. The margin requirements are horrendous and the risk even greater. This stock has moved by more than 27% after the earnings announcement two times in the last year. What happens to your strangle if that happens once again?
    Feb 5 05:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Yum Earnings Announcement Next Week [View article]
    Right. It usually is, except when something crazy happens like what AAPL did a couple of weeks ago.
    Feb 1 10:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman Was Too Kind In His Attack On Herbalife [View article]
    Very well written article. I guess it's clear that you don't like the MLM model. I don't like it either, but not as much as you.

    Why don't you go after the gambling industry with this same kind of fervor? The losses to the average Joe are many times as great as the losses with MLMs like Herbalife.

    As everyone seems to agree, it will be very interesting to see how this whole thing works out. I still think that while the MLM might smell worse than a teenager's sweatsocks, HLF is headed higher.
    Jan 24 01:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Serious Reasons Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
    It was never clear that Einhorn ever had a short position of any size, and if he did, it was all well before Ackman sold his shares (he was the one who publicly acknowledged he had sold some short - Einhorn never did until now we he said he took a profit).

    So I believe that this is a non-event.
    Jan 24 12:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Starbucks Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Yes, those bad old days with full commission rates. Many years ago one of the first discount brokers was a man named George Brown in Boston who became an acquaintance. His company was called Brown & Co. I was one of his biggest customers, trading options in volume (I never really had much of a nest egg), and he invited me to join him - I was in a doctoral program at UVA at the time and declined his offered - Brown & Co. is now eTrade - I sometimes wonder how different my life would be now if I had taken him up on his offer.
    Jan 23 11:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Serious Reasons Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
    You have confused Ponzi with pyramid - there is a world of difference. Does 400,000 new distributors in 9 months sound like saturation? How can you ignore the facts and just speculate on what you think should be happening?
    Jan 23 11:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Starbucks Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Ah, dignity - I have long since given up making it a realistic goal for me.

    I do like your thinking process. The broker must like you, too.
    Jan 23 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Facts Dispute The Claim That The Short-Term Volatility ETF Drifts Lower And Spikes Higher [View article]
    I haven't disappeared, and my facts stand for themselves. My point was just that spikes don't just occur to the upside - in fact, they are more likely on the downside. By the way, my portfolio that bets on VXX falling has made over 20% this month.
    Jan 23 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Starbucks Earnings Announcement [View article]
    George - Wonderful to hear from you. I read everything you write if only for your humor which always brightens my day.

    After reading your comments I think I will add some SBUX calendars that should make about 40% this week as long as the stock doesn't fluctuate over $4 which you suggest might be what happens. I won't hold you responsible for any possible losses (nor will I share any gains).

    Keep your readers smiling! We love your off-beat thoughts.

    Terry
    Jan 23 01:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Starbucks Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Good questions with no easy answers, I'm afraid. I chose 15 just because it was a good deal more than the number of straddles I owned. If I were more worried about a big move I would have bought more.

    The best time is a tough question, too. I plan on buying and selling the straddles Wednesday and then the extra straddles nearer to the end of the day on Thursday just in case they might have decayed a little bit, but that timing is a pure crapshoot. Good luck.
    Jan 23 08:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Starbucks Earnings Announcement [View article]
    Good question - I used the average IV of the at-the-money puts and calls for each series as the best measure of the implied volatility for that series. That has proved to be the most accurate measure.
    Jan 22 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Remarkably Safe Way To Play The Apple Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I agree with you that they are the same as two calendars, as well as your experience with the other stocks. That why I emphasized that it would probably not work with using Feb options as the long side - IV will plummet for that series while it shouldn't for the April options.
    Jan 22 10:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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