Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Dr. Terry Allen  

View Dr. Terry Allen's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    The prices I showed were exactly the market shortly after the open on Friday, November 28. If you have an account at thinkorswim you can use their OnDemand feature and go back and see the exact option prices on that morning.
    Dec 4, 2012. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Those prices were available on Friday morning, November 28 when I wrote the article. It could have been executed as a spread at $1.25. If you have an account at thinkorswim you can use their OnDemand feature and go back and see exactly what the option prices were (bid and ask) just after the open on that day.
    Dec 4, 2012. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    While what you say is true, these options expire in only 15 days so the difference between spot VIX and the futures is inconsequential. If we were trading further-out months it might make a difference.
    Dec 4, 2012. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    I do understand that - it is where contango comes into play.
    Dec 3, 2012. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. We have both been through similar times with VXX.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. Of course, if you short VXX and the crash does come, you get killed. Not so with the long VIX calls.
    Dec 3, 2012. 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    I guess you were lucky. Those calls trade with almost no premium in them but buying below intrinsic value is nice when it comes along. Congratulations!
    Dec 3, 2012. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    That is probably a good deal as well. I like the premium decay on the December options though (I think nothing will get done by the 19th and enough uncertainty will continue to keep VIX up nicely). Once they expire I'll probably do something similar for January.
    Dec 3, 2012. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    Unless things really settle down in Europe and we get our unemployment rate way down, I think VIX will remain above 15 for quite a while. Fear is all over the place, especially with Iran and Israel unrest and terrorist possibilities all over the world.
    Dec 3, 2012. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatility Play With Significant Upside Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Options on VIX are a much better to provide volatility insurance because you don't have to worry about contango. See my article published today by SA - Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even if There's No Crash. It makes 50% in one month even if VIX does not move higher, and more if it does.
    Dec 3, 2012. 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    VIX has never been that low and probably never will be. There will always be market volatility no matter how complacent people get. On the other hand, VXX will surely get that low sometime soon.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside The Apple iPad? It Makes Sense! [View article]
    Great comments. Thank you.
    Dec 2, 2012. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    As you can expect, I did very well on the diagonals I placed earlier but lost money on the calendars (even though they were at higher strikes than the stock at the time). In total, I made about 40% on my investment for the month which I will take any time. I now hold March - Dec1-12 Weekly calendars at every strike from 35 to 38 as well as the Jan-Dec calendars at much lower strikes (they have essentially no value so I have not closed them out - who knows, the stock may crash in the next three weeks and they will be worth something.

    The March options cost a little over $5 and you can collect about $1 in premium for the at-the-money Weeklys and do it 15 times by owning the March options. Feels good to me.
    Dec 2, 2012. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I expect to close out everything at the December expiration.
    Nov 21, 2012. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I agree completely - the drop could be significant. The vertical spreads, however, which make up the great majority of the money at risk, would be exempt from the IV crash.
    Nov 20, 2012. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
222 Comments
113 Likes