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Dr. Terry Allen

 
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  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. We have both been through similar times with VXX.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Thanks for your kind words. Of course, if you short VXX and the crash does come, you get killed. Not so with the long VIX calls.
    Dec 3, 2012. 06:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    I guess you were lucky. Those calls trade with almost no premium in them but buying below intrinsic value is nice when it comes along. Congratulations!
    Dec 3, 2012. 05:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    That is probably a good deal as well. I like the premium decay on the December options though (I think nothing will get done by the 19th and enough uncertainty will continue to keep VIX up nicely). Once they expire I'll probably do something similar for January.
    Dec 3, 2012. 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    Unless things really settle down in Europe and we get our unemployment rate way down, I think VIX will remain above 15 for quite a while. Fear is all over the place, especially with Iran and Israel unrest and terrorist possibilities all over the world.
    Dec 3, 2012. 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Volatility Play With Significant Upside Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
    Options on VIX are a much better to provide volatility insurance because you don't have to worry about contango. See my article published today by SA - Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even if There's No Crash. It makes 50% in one month even if VIX does not move higher, and more if it does.
    Dec 3, 2012. 11:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even If There Is No Crash [View article]
    VIX has never been that low and probably never will be. There will always be market volatility no matter how complacent people get. On the other hand, VXX will surely get that low sometime soon.
    Dec 3, 2012. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Inside The Apple iPad? It Makes Sense! [View article]
    Great comments. Thank you.
    Dec 2, 2012. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    As you can expect, I did very well on the diagonals I placed earlier but lost money on the calendars (even though they were at higher strikes than the stock at the time). In total, I made about 40% on my investment for the month which I will take any time. I now hold March - Dec1-12 Weekly calendars at every strike from 35 to 38 as well as the Jan-Dec calendars at much lower strikes (they have essentially no value so I have not closed them out - who knows, the stock may crash in the next three weeks and they will be worth something.

    The March options cost a little over $5 and you can collect about $1 in premium for the at-the-money Weeklys and do it 15 times by owning the March options. Feels good to me.
    Dec 2, 2012. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I expect to close out everything at the December expiration.
    Nov 21, 2012. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I agree completely - the drop could be significant. The vertical spreads, however, which make up the great majority of the money at risk, would be exempt from the IV crash.
    Nov 20, 2012. 09:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Dynamite Options Strategy To Play The Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Earnings Announcement [View article]
    You may be right and I hope you are. Just as long as it doesn't fall more than 10% I will be a happy (and richer) camper.
    Nov 20, 2012. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Options To Buy Fiscal Cliff Insurance Protection [View article]
    This strategy is essentially the same as my earlier article although I have added some calendar spreads selling weekly options to generate short-term revenue to assure that a small gain results if the market moves higher.

    VXX can fall about 15% before any loss would occur on the downside (on the upside, the higher the better). With VIX already low by historical standards, I think VXX is unlikely to fall by this amount in the next 5 weeks no matter how spectacular the rally might be. Of course, I never believed AAPL would fall as far as it has, either.
    Nov 13, 2012. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Options To Buy Fiscal Cliff Insurance Protection [View article]
    You pose an interesting question, but volatility is hard to predict. If a deal is reached in Congress,volatility is bound to plummet (although it is pretty low already) while no deal means much higher volatility. It's a crapshoot guess at this point.

    Enjoy your studying.

    Terry
    Nov 12, 2012. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Use Options To Buy Fiscal Cliff Insurance Protection [View article]
    Thanks for you words of support. I don't get them often. Most people complain that the strategies are so complex (and convoluted to many).
    Nov 12, 2012. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
218 Comments
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