Ackman Was Too Kind In His Attack On Herbalife [View article]
Very well written article. I guess it's clear that you don't like the MLM model. I don't like it either, but not as much as you.
Why don't you go after the gambling industry with this same kind of fervor? The losses to the average Joe are many times as great as the losses with MLMs like Herbalife.
As everyone seems to agree, it will be very interesting to see how this whole thing works out. I still think that while the MLM might smell worse than a teenager's sweatsocks, HLF is headed higher.
Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
Yes, I was wrong about the direction of the stock move this week but my options positions made a solid gain, and I expect the stock will move higher next week. Friday's drop was largely due to the buy-write guys who let their stock be taken away from them. They also made a nice gain for the week (assuming they sold in-the-money calls as they usually do) but now they can move on to other opportunities.
How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Announcement [View article]
I closed out the DE options today (prematurely as it worked out) for a little more than a 15% gain after commissions. It was the seventh consecutive earnings gain I made over the past six weeks which netted over 100% in all - I will itemize them all at the Terry's Tips blog after the 8th (Sina) trade is finished tomorrow.
4 Serious Reasons Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
You have confused Ponzi with pyramid - there is a world of difference. Does 400,000 new distributors in 9 months sound like saturation? How can you ignore the facts and just speculate on what you think should be happening?
More Reasons Why Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
A short squeeze is a real possibility here. When you short a stock that doesn't pay a dividend your only cost is the money you have tied up. When that company pays a dividend, you, the short seller, must pay the dividend. In Herbalife's case, Ackman will have to shell out $32 million a year. I suspect the short sellers won't maintain their short positions for the long term and a short squeeze will come along when they start unwinding their positions.
Why The Current Apple Situation Might Be The Best Investment Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
I use options rather than buying stock, and actually have over 3000 equivalent shares of AAPL, and yes, I am a millionaire (and have given over $2 million away to Vermont charities) and trading options is how I got there. I would encourage you to study up on them.
How To Play The Salesforce.com Earnings Announcement [View article]
I must disagree with you. The software I use structures in the expected drop in IV after earnings, and I report exactly how much I have reduced IV (and I base it on where IV fell to after the last earnings announcement). In this article I have assumed (and the graph includes it) that IV will fall from 48 to 40 for the June options.
Your second statement is comparing apples and oranges. Maybe I was not clear in the article. The 6.6% average change only refers to the stock price after the earnings announcement. It doesn't have anything to do with option prices, past or forward.
Your third statement is inaccurate. No matter how far the stock might fall, there will still be a gain. The intrinsic value of the diagonal spread can never be worth less than $2.50 which is less than you paid for it. Since the June options have a month of life remaining, the spread is highly likely to be worth more than the intrinsic value. It is true that if the stock moves higher by a very large amount, a loss would result, and it could be a big one, but I have made over 22% after commissions on 8 consecutive option trades, and I could handle of big loss every once in a while if I am terribly wrong in the direction I think the stock will move. Usually, big moves are to the downside, and that is where I have total protection in this CRM play.
How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Announcement [View article]
I sold the diagonal today at a nice gain and waiting to close the calendar probably until Friday. Could easily be a 30% gain. Keep our fingers crossed.
I think it is foolhardy to use the cautionary prospectus language to forecast that the ETN will eventually head to zero. After all, they are just trying to cover their asses. As long as contango continues to exist I will continue to have more of my invested capital in ZIV (and some in XIV) than any other ETN or ETF.
Backwardation only occurs about 5% of the time so I am invested most of the time. My cost basis for VIX is less than $7 two years ago so even with yesterday's big drop, I'm up over 300%.
How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
Sorry for the typo - it has been corrected. I found the error on the second reading but did not know how to alter it (but now I do). Thanks for pointing out the error of my ways.
Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
I continue to be fascinated by people who can ignore the numbers and find fault with a company that they hate for some reason known only to themselves (and maybe they don't even know why themselves). It is a wonderful lesson in life, and source of ongoing pleasure. Thanks for expressing your vitriol.
Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
I don't quite agree with you. When the buy-write guys come on board, they are buying stock they really don't care much about owning for long and they sell in-the-money calls expiring in a few days with huge premium. This is new money coming into the market - their buys have a 100 delta and their short calls about a 70 delta. The stock moves higher on this buying.(prior to the announcement, as it did this week).
After the announcement, the stock falls only a little bit so they will be exercised out, selling 100 deltas. That will depress the price of the stock on expiration Friday., as it did today.
A Volatility Play With Significant Upside Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
Options on VIX are a much better to provide volatility insurance because you don't have to worry about contango. See my article published today by SA - Black Swan Insurance That Might Pay Off Even if There's No Crash. It makes 50% in one month even if VIX does not move higher, and more if it does.
How To Play Joy Global's Earnings Announcement [View article]
Well, it's been eight years since my settling with the SEC (without admitting guilt, by the way), and ever since then at least 30 unregistered newsletters are having trades executed through Auto-Trade programs openly and daily. One would think that if the SEC intended to shut them down they would have done it long before now.
The essence of Auto-Trade is that it is a contract between the customer and a broker (who is licensed). The newsletter does not participate in that contract, and is just publishing its trade recommendations for all its subscribers to see. The customer makes an agreement with the broker to honor those recommendations and execute trades in his or her account.
Auto-Trade is something the broker offers, not the newsletter. The SEC can't go after the newsletter for expressing its opinions. The newsletter is not a party in the Auto-Trade contract.
Ackman Was Too Kind In His Attack On Herbalife [View article]
Why don't you go after the gambling industry with this same kind of fervor? The losses to the average Joe are many times as great as the losses with MLMs like Herbalife.
As everyone seems to agree, it will be very interesting to see how this whole thing works out. I still think that while the MLM might smell worse than a teenager's sweatsocks, HLF is headed higher.
Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Announcement [View article]
4 Serious Reasons Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
More Reasons Why Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
Why The Current Apple Situation Might Be The Best Investment Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
How To Play The Salesforce.com Earnings Announcement [View article]
Your second statement is comparing apples and oranges. Maybe I was not clear in the article. The 6.6% average change only refers to the stock price after the earnings announcement. It doesn't have anything to do with option prices, past or forward.
Your third statement is inaccurate. No matter how far the stock might fall, there will still be a gain. The intrinsic value of the diagonal spread can never be worth less than $2.50 which is less than you paid for it. Since the June options have a month of life remaining, the spread is highly likely to be worth more than the intrinsic value. It is true that if the stock moves higher by a very large amount, a loss would result, and it could be a big one, but I have made over 22% after commissions on 8 consecutive option trades, and I could handle of big loss every once in a while if I am terribly wrong in the direction I think the stock will move. Usually, big moves are to the downside, and that is where I have total protection in this CRM play.
How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Announcement [View article]
Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
Backwardation only occurs about 5% of the time so I am invested most of the time. My cost basis for VIX is less than $7 two years ago so even with yesterday's big drop, I'm up over 300%.
How To Play The Tesla Motors Earnings Announcement [View article]
Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
After the announcement, the stock falls only a little bit so they will be exercised out, selling 100 deltas. That will depress the price of the stock on expiration Friday., as it did today.
A Far Better Volatility Play With Significant Upside, Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
A Volatility Play With Significant Upside Should We Go Off The Fiscal Cliff [View article]
How To Play Joy Global's Earnings Announcement [View article]
The essence of Auto-Trade is that it is a contract between the customer and a broker (who is licensed). The newsletter does not participate in that contract, and is just publishing its trade recommendations for all its subscribers to see. The customer makes an agreement with the broker to honor those recommendations and execute trades in his or her account.
Auto-Trade is something the broker offers, not the newsletter. The SEC can't go after the newsletter for expressing its opinions. The newsletter is not a party in the Auto-Trade contract.