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Dr. Terry Allen  

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  • Dow 16,000 And The IBM Impact [View article]
    The Dow should go the way of the buggy whip. The only company that has been in the Dow since the beginning is GE. Since the turn of the century, GE has fallen by 50%. If it were the only company in the Dow, we would be looking at a Dow of 6000 instead of 16,000. They only goosed up the Dow by adding high-flyers and eliminating decaying companies, all part of Wall Streets propaganda machine.
    Nov 28, 2013. 01:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman Was Too Kind In His Attack On Herbalife [View article]
    Very well written article. I guess it's clear that you don't like the MLM model. I don't like it either, but not as much as you.

    Why don't you go after the gambling industry with this same kind of fervor? The losses to the average Joe are many times as great as the losses with MLMs like Herbalife.

    As everyone seems to agree, it will be very interesting to see how this whole thing works out. I still think that while the MLM might smell worse than a teenager's sweatsocks, HLF is headed higher.
    Jan 24, 2013. 01:35 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Will Soar In Price This Week - Part 2 [View article]
    Yes, I was wrong about the direction of the stock move this week but my options positions made a solid gain, and I expect the stock will move higher next week. Friday's drop was largely due to the buy-write guys who let their stock be taken away from them. They also made a nice gain for the week (assuming they sold in-the-money calls as they usually do) but now they can move on to other opportunities.
    Feb 8, 2013. 07:09 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Dow Is An Imprecise Measure Of The Market [View article]
    You have clearly drunk the Wall Street cool-aid hook line and sinker. Brainwashing works. While I will be guilty of mixing metaphors, you have enjoyed the sausage without any understanding of the ingredients that went into making it.
    Sep 11, 2013. 04:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I closed out the DE options today (prematurely as it worked out) for a little more than a 15% gain after commissions. It was the seventh consecutive earnings gain I made over the past six weeks which netted over 100% in all - I will itemize them all at the Terry's Tips blog after the 8th (Sina) trade is finished tomorrow.
    May 16, 2013. 02:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Serious Reasons Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
    You have confused Ponzi with pyramid - there is a world of difference. Does 400,000 new distributors in 9 months sound like saturation? How can you ignore the facts and just speculate on what you think should be happening?
    Jan 23, 2013. 11:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Reasons Why Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
    A short squeeze is a real possibility here. When you short a stock that doesn't pay a dividend your only cost is the money you have tied up. When that company pays a dividend, you, the short seller, must pay the dividend. In Herbalife's case, Ackman will have to shell out $32 million a year. I suspect the short sellers won't maintain their short positions for the long term and a short squeeze will come along when they start unwinding their positions.
    Jan 13, 2013. 09:46 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Current Apple Situation Might Be The Best Investment Opportunity Of The Decade [View article]
    I use options rather than buying stock, and actually have over 3000 equivalent shares of AAPL, and yes, I am a millionaire (and have given over $2 million away to Vermont charities) and trading options is how I got there. I would encourage you to study up on them.
    Sep 7, 2012. 08:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nike: Solid Company, Promising Future - And Overpriced Stock? [View article]
    Very well researched and written article. Thank you. I have recommended reading it to my subscribers (to my Terry;s Tips newsletter). We carry out an options portfolio using NKE as the underlying that made 70% over the past six months, and we are looking forward to picking up more, especially if the stock moves sideways for a while as you suggest it might.
    Jan 18, 2014. 10:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Dow Overstates Actual Market Performance [View article]
    Where did you get your 4.5% dividend figure? It is closer to 2%, or just about how much the fees are for anyone with an equity mutual fund, bringing the net annual gain back to 5.3%.
    Dec 2, 2013. 04:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Dow Overstates Actual Market Performance [View article]
    The 5.3% average market growth of the U.S. stock market over the last 100 years was calculated by Warren Buffett and published in his 2008 letter to stockholders. Do you consider him to be just "other people?" Your 10% figure is exactly what the Wall Street media machine is trying to foist on the gullible public - I guess they succeeded with you at least.
    Dec 2, 2013. 03:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Seagate Technology Earnings Announcement This Week [View article]
    Nobody probably reads down this far, but I hope someone sees that I really nailed this one on the head. They beat estimates and the stock tanked anyway because expectations were so high. A court re-affirmed a $650 million lawsuit in their favor this week as well (which should have moved the stock higher).
    Jul 24, 2013. 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I must disagree with you. The software I use structures in the expected drop in IV after earnings, and I report exactly how much I have reduced IV (and I base it on where IV fell to after the last earnings announcement). In this article I have assumed (and the graph includes it) that IV will fall from 48 to 40 for the June options.

    Your second statement is comparing apples and oranges. Maybe I was not clear in the article. The 6.6% average change only refers to the stock price after the earnings announcement. It doesn't have anything to do with option prices, past or forward.

    Your third statement is inaccurate. No matter how far the stock might fall, there will still be a gain. The intrinsic value of the diagonal spread can never be worth less than $2.50 which is less than you paid for it. Since the June options have a month of life remaining, the spread is highly likely to be worth more than the intrinsic value. It is true that if the stock moves higher by a very large amount, a loss would result, and it could be a big one, but I have made over 22% after commissions on 8 consecutive option trades, and I could handle of big loss every once in a while if I am terribly wrong in the direction I think the stock will move. Usually, big moves are to the downside, and that is where I have total protection in this CRM play.
    May 19, 2013. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Play The Deere & Company Earnings Announcement [View article]
    I sold the diagonal today at a nice gain and waiting to close the calendar probably until Friday. Could easily be a 30% gain. Keep our fingers crossed.
    May 15, 2013. 08:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware The Sweet Siren Song Of XIV [View article]
    I think it is foolhardy to use the cautionary prospectus language to forecast that the ETN will eventually head to zero. After all, they are just trying to cover their asses. As long as contango continues to exist I will continue to have more of my invested capital in ZIV (and some in XIV) than any other ETN or ETF.

    Backwardation only occurs about 5% of the time so I am invested most of the time. My cost basis for VIX is less than $7 two years ago so even with yesterday's big drop, I'm up over 300%.
    Apr 16, 2013. 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment