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Drew Handy

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  • 3 Stocks Virtually Guaranteed To Raise Dividends [View article]
    Commenters: I regret the error, which was imported from Yahoo Finance but is mine. Until it is duly corrected, readers will benefit from all of you pointing it out, which I appreciate.
    Aug 16 11:59 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Stocks For The Consumer Food Revolution [View article]
    Thank your for contributing your thoughts. I should preface this by saying I am a long term investor.

    I hold a generally different macro view than you. I am positive on the medium to long term (3-5 years) for the equity markets. Corporate earnings in the United States remain robust and the weakness in Europe is something that will take time to get through --- I anticipate the political process in Europe will take another 8-12 months to get to a level of cooperation that will yield stability in the EuroZone. That being said, a stagnant Europe and U.S. that will grow 2-5% per annum would be positive for corporate earnings going forward.

    I view PNRA as better suited to long term growth than WEN, because PNRA has better pricing power that can grow profits during good times and protect against potentially volatile and higher commodity prices (which Fed policy is increasing the risk of) in the medium/long run. I view WEN (though I appreciate the breadth of their menu as a consumer) as being in a tough competitive environment and generally without the kind of pricing power than will enable them to grow profits. WEN's prospects do improve if the U.S. enters a long-term recessionary environment that cripples consumers, however. Considering you subscribe to that view, it would make sense that you'd view WEN favorably.

    My broadest forecast for U.S. consumer demand over the next 10-20 years is greater luxury demand, more niche/value-added demand, etc and that luxury demand filtering down aggressively to aspirational consumers in the middle and lower-middle classes. Due to their growth rates, those firms are often relatively expensive fundamentally but because they fit long running secular trends I seek out buying opportunities in them.
    Aug 2 07:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Next-Of-Breed': Forget Procter & Gamble And Clorox; Invest In Prestige Brand Holdings [View article]
    Thank you very much for identifying this error---you are absolutely correct and I regret the error.

    Readers: In the meantime, please use the following as the correct data for CLX in the table above:

    Market Cap: 9.50B
    Employees: 8,100
    Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): .7%
    Revenue (ttm):5.41B
    Gross Margin (ttm): 0.42
    EBITDA (ttm):1.07B
    Operating Margin (ttm):0.17
    Net Income (ttm):536.00M
    EPS (ttm):4.03
    P/E (ttm):18.14
    PEG (5 yr expected):2.78
    P/S (ttm): 1.75
    Jul 27 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Small And Mid-Cap Stocks That Could Quadruple Or Go Bankrupt Within 3 Years [View article]
    It's of course tautological and absurd (i.e. your comment) to state that any company can fail, therefore there is no use in assessing factors that put firms at a greater probability for failure. All firms have unique risk profiles, which in many cases vary dramatically temporally; in this case these are high beta names based on the attributes in the article.

    Investors in EK and GM had decades to see the writing on the wall---not that those names have any relevance to this discussion.
    Jul 19 07:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Small And Mid-Cap Stocks That Could Quadruple Or Go Bankrupt Within 3 Years [View article]
    I see there is quite a bit of passion from investors in ARNA, which can be a good thing, of course. I find it interesting that most of the focus is on holders not wishing to consider or downplaying downside risks, rather than the upside potential of a 4-bagger.

    The focus of this brief article are those types of companies, due to their principal business, characteristics, and timing, that have a wide range of potential outcomes, risks, and opportunities over the short to intermediate term. These can serve a constructive role in a portfolio. With ~ 300 words per name, it is not meant to be a full analyst report on each name; rather, it's a general introduction to further research for those new to the names or an instrument of discussion.

    Good luck to you all.
    Jul 19 07:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Small And Mid-Cap Stocks That Could Quadruple Or Go Bankrupt Within 3 Years [View article]
    Doug: Just an FYI regarding Vivus: FDA approval was announced for Qsymia between the time this article was submitted and published.
    Jul 19 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks Virtually Guaranteed To Raise Dividends [View article]
    This list is focused upon companies that raise dividends. A future list will focus on companies that provide the highest and/or safest dividend yields. However, you may wish to focus less on current yield, as companies that consistently raise dividends allow investors to have significant compounding effects (like that cited by "Gosh" below who now effectively yields 8% on XOM) that can make for far higher effective yields for investors over time.
    Jul 8 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Does The Microsoft, Yammer Deal Say About The Prospects For Jive? [View article]
    That's why it's utilized as the most bullish case, or upper band of prospects. The sector has been richly valued for some time, and is well illustrated by the leader in the field CRM (with far lower growth prospects) being valued at 8 x's sales. Having a small growth firm in a sector with few acquisition targets does cause desperate behavior in terms of acquisitions, even in less appealing spaces as storage...see Compellant, 3Par, Isilon for instance.
    Jul 4 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Starbucks And Teavana: A Match Made In Heaven? [View article]
    Thank you for your contributing your perspective.

    We may differ in what we see---I see TEA as offering synergies in terms of offering what SBUX has been deficient. First, TEA has what Tazo does not: brand recognition. It also provides a strong high-end niche retail business, which fits where SBUX has begun to go with their boutique/premium coffee lines. There would also be overhead synergies and upstream supplier efficiencies relative to TEA today.

    I am surprised that SBUX would go to the massive expense and risk to attempt to develop a brand without much equity (TAZO). Perhaps it's another one and done experiment by Howard (see: Starbucks Cafe). However, if it's the first in a large scale development of TAZO locations, I'll be highly surprised. There are three potentials: 1) one-and-done experiment; 2) development of TAZO line; and 3) acquisition. 1) is ineffectual; 2) is expensive and risky; and 3) offers value to the brand. How do you view that triad? The article is most about assessing the strategic move of SBUX, after all.
    Jul 2 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In The Travel Industry: Aggregators Or Hotel Chains? [View article]
    Thanks for contributing to the discussion.

    I don't disagree, and I view aggregators very positively from an investment perspective. That said, aggregators owe their existence to the hard assets ultimately, so they face some risk of hoteliers taking that margin over in-house (perhaps a poor business move as you mention), or low barriers to entry (marketing and perhaps early-mover advantage are the only "moats" for aggregators) potentially generating increased competition.

    That said, corporate hotel chains have compelling assets in the U.S., including many assets that are attractive to foreign buyers, so it will be interesting to see their performance and the evolution of their balance sheets over the long run.
    Jun 27 03:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short TVIX: The Ultimate VIX Contango Trade [View article]
    Excellent analysis and call on this trade, author.

    To be honest, I don't understand why CS and other issuers are allowed to float these products in the open market.
    Jun 24 07:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks With Unsafe Dividends [View article]
    Thank you for contributing to the discussion, Justin.

    Absolutely---I actually believe companies should be more willing to reduce dividends when warranted, and SFL does have a track record of active dividend management. The risk (or future opportunity) from the shareholder perspective is that reduced dividends often produce significant downward volatility in shares. I hope you'll also notice that I'm not making any claims regarding the future performance of these companies --- just that investors heavily focused on the attractive dividend yields should be aware that they are outsized by metrics and could fall. In the case of SFL, an increase in global economic activity in coming quarters or years could well increase profitability and cash flows and sustain the dividend. As a shareholder, you will no doubt be richly rewarded in that event.

    Many dividend investors view all dividends as substantively equal, so my hope is to get investors to look more closely at the quality and sustainability of dividends.
    Jun 15 05:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks With Unsafe Dividends [View article]
    Yahoo Finance and the 10-K
    Jun 15 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Stocks With Unsafe Dividends [View article]
    J Connors, thank you for adding insight to the discussion. My belief is that dividends that are sustainable over the long term are ideally supported (to a greater extent) through net income. Is your view that dividends supported by depreciation are equally safe over the long term?
    Jun 15 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tootsie Roll Industries: Will Patient Investors Eventually Be Living The Sweet Life? [View article]
    Very true, thanks for adding to the discussion.
    Jun 15 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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