China MediaExpress: The Best Stock in the World [View article]
Markets are not efficient. Investors who believe this myth have to read more about it or go to take an investment course.
Based on the fact that the markets are handled by human beings and not by machines, and that the investment world has a high degree of psychological influence, we can conclude that no matter how regulated they are, the markets cannot be absolutely efficient.
The main reasons for this affirmation are:
1. In real life, information has a cost; no matter how basic it is, not every investor can spend the same amount in obtaining it or receiving it at the moment it becomes public.
In fact, we can’t compare an economic investigation department in a large investment bank with the information a dentist, a student, a writer or a private investor negotiates in the stock market.
2. The difference between those that participate in the investment world. The knowledge of all the variables that are a part of an asset’s price is not the same for everyone, for which it is obvious that the more knowledgeable will take advantage of such knowledge.
If we start from the base that the results of the different investment analysis are reflected in prices, those who dominate such study techniques have a larger advantage than the rest of the investors.
Even more, according to this theory, there are people operating in the market whose only job is being a professional investor, who in turn are competing for the same stock as a common investor.
3. Not everyone has the same access facilities to different price maximizing mechanisms. It doesn’t matter if we get the correct information at the exact moment, be it due to cost or infrastructure, those who have the most advanced operation system will have an advantage.
For example, in our countries the operators with access to foreign markets are a minority, and even if they have all the information about the arbitrage techniques, are not able to sell ADR in New York and buy, simultaneously, stock for that company in the local market.
4. Another of the reasons and perhaps one of the most important is the access to information itself. In every country there are laws that punish privileged or inside information trafficking.
Orient Paper: Inconsistent Record Keeping Raises Red Flags [View article]
This Orient Paper discussion is already going on for quite a long time, why a reporter of the Wall Street Journal or another respectable newspaper doesn't investigate the story. So the SEC gets also interested.
I refer to my own article of one week ago with some additions.
In China, consumers buying residential properties are required to put down 30 percent before taking out a mortgage. For a second home, the down payment is 50 percent, irrespective of their net worth. Home purchase is predicated on affordability not like in the West on debt (How much mortgage I can get?).
Today, there are some 360 million urban residents in China. In the next three decades, the figure is expected to grow to 970 million. What China is trying to achieve is unique in history – to create urban space to more than 610 million people, within a single generation.
In such an environment, periods of overheating will occasionally be accompanied by dramatic price increases. China’s urbanization rate is about 45 percent, whereas in Japan and other advanced countries it is more than 80 percent. As these nations reflect very different levels of economic development and different levels of individual prosperity, their real estate markets are different as well.
Despite its rapid pace of expansion, China’s real estate is still at a very preliminary stage. The marketplace is so colossal that there are no precedents, no simple models.
Yet the prospects for a robust growth remain intact. The key will be not to allow that growth to become threatened by a property bubble – while providing affordable housing for the rapidly-expanding new middle-class.
One of the most important conclusions of the big rise in house prices is of course URBANIZATION. As long as this process goes on house prices will increase slowly or rapidly.
Gold enthusiasts have been on a predictions-spree, forecasting that gold prices would surge to $2,000 per ounce, then $3,000 and eventually even jumping to $5,000 and $10,000 in course of the history.
This big jump in gold prices in 2009 prompted several analysts to predict that gold was on a bubble that would burst soon. The bubble forecasters included noted economist Nouriel Roubini who said gold price is moving up on speculation and therefore the speculative bubble would burst any day. Global commodities investor Jim Rogers blasted Roubini saying that gold or for that matter any other commodity is not on any bubbles and that analysts like Roubini do not know the basic fundamentals of commodities/bullion markets.
The gold bubble debate continues.
Gold hit its record, inflation-adjusted peak at $850 in January 1980. That too was a time of high anxiety, caused then by double-digit inflation and interest rates; huge public- and private-sector debt; and geopolitical uncertainty after the two "oil shocks" of the 1970s. In the short space of a decade, the price of oil – a much bigger part of the Western economy than it is today – had skyrocketed from about $2 per barrel to $34.
But then the U.S. Federal Reserve Board finally broke the back of inflation. Economic growth boomed in the 1980s, and the stock market entered its greatest bull market in history. And gold went into a 19-year free fall, plummeting to a nadir of $252.90 in June 1999.
Gold, truth to tell, is a lousy investment. It pays no dividends and incurs high storage costs. It is illiquid (try paying for groceries with a gold bar). And it's in almost infinite supply. Central banks and the International Monetary Fund can and do regularly sell off gold from their reserves, flooding the market. Gold producers bring uneconomic mines back into production when a rise in gold prices makes them viable again.
And gold, unlike oil, does not change its chemical composition, and turn into something else, when used. Practically every bit of gold in use since the Pharaohs remains in existence. It is a notoriously "soft" metal useful in few industrial applications. For many precious-metals buyers, it is eclipsed in "aspirational" value by platinum.
And at its current price, gold still hasn't recovered over the past 30 years to meet, much less surpass, the $850 that had Torontonians lining up around the block in the bitter cold of January 1980 to buy gold wafers, bars and coins at the since-defunct Deak & Co. at King and Yonge Streets.
Taking inflation into account, gold should now be trading at $2,163.62 to match its previous high. Anyone who bought gold at its historic peak in 1980 is suffering a $1,313.62 loss three decades later on every ounce of gold purchased at that time.
Gold has increased in price by about 350 per cent since its 1999 nadir. You would have done better in that time with shares in the prosaic Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (up 771 per cent). If you'd bought stock in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. when it went public two years before gold hit its all-time 1980 peak, you would have gained 68,109 per cent on your investment.
Economic conditions today arguably are better than at the time of the mania three decades ago. The U.S. dollar has strengthened — accounting for gold's recent retreat - and will strengthen further as its economy recovers and its yawning trade gap with China narrows. It's the weakening of the greenback, more than anything, that accounts for the recent rush to gold.
Gold will retain its millennia-old appeal, freighted as it is with symbolism. But if an apocalypse truly does beckon, gold won't be much help to you.
As Roubini wrote his clients in December 2009: "If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities you can actually use in your log cabin."
Of course there are some points that are clearly the case but I also want to add the following points. The failure rate of 85% mentioned in the article has also to do with the the risk aversion of private and professional investors for Chinese companies in general and the naked short selling by criminal entities.
Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
Sorry folks, but to give personal attacks to contributors goes much too far. Kevin was in good faith when he made an analyze of the company. He and many other contributors (including myself) couldn't know that LPH was a fraud. In my opinion the only person that knew what he was doing was the CEO himself.
To blame contributors for investment losses is of course easy. Investing is taking risks and sometimes these risks are out of control.
I don't agree with your thesis, because the growth in emerging markets will offset the stabilization in mature markets with a factor two the years to come.
The key growth items you will see in their snack business and healthy drinks. Especially in South East Asia they could double their revenues in a time frame of 4-5 years.
European Telecom Companies Face Crisis But Offer Long-Term Opportunities [View article]
That is a very good question, I think I didn't mention it because I was looking to European countries that face difficulties and Germany is best in class.
The story of DT is that the company expanded into the US and Eastern Europe to reduce dependence on its home market, which has been very competitive. DT responded with cost savings and price cuts and merged its German operations to become more competitive. DT has been changing its strategy and now aims to concentrate on Europe but the sale of the US mobile unit failed. In October 2012, DT announced to merge its US Mobile business into listed MetroPCS. The transaction enables an exit from the US at a later stage, which is positive. However lots of challenges remain. Rival SprintNextel got financial support from Japanese mobile operator Softbank and is speculated to launch a counter bid for MetroPCS.
Anticipated synergies look ambitious and the new company will remain a distant number 4 in the U.S. mobile market focusing on lower quality customers. The deal is better than none but is no game changer.
Q3 results were relatively solid. Guidance for 2012 including dividend per share was confirmed but management was more cautious on dividend. Analyst consensus already expects a 15% lower dividend in 2013. From a credit (bonds) perspective DT is an attractive defensive credit, because until now the company has reported predictable results, with robust top line margins and weakness in market share.
Interesting Opportunities In The Vitamin Market [View article]
Ian, look at this http://bluscience.com and then make some calculations. Definitely worthy to look into and devote another article about the future prospects. I think RedChip is even too conservative with their numbers.
Why people consider it a pump and dump? It's a long-term winner.
ChromaDex has so much potential, maybe management doesn't even know it.
Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map [View article]
Amsterdam, 12 June 2012 – TomTom (AEX:TOM2) has signed a global agreement with Apple® for maps and related information. No further details of the agreement will be provided.
AAPL is just going to buy TomTom so they don't have to worry about maps anymore.
2 U.S.-Listed China Stocks To Buy Now [View article]
Many investors believe what they read on message (trash) boards such as Yahoo. That's the big problem nowadays with social media, they can hurt and break a company.
China MediaExpress: The Best Stock in the World [View article]
Based on the fact that the markets are handled by human beings and not by machines, and that the investment world has a high degree of psychological influence, we can conclude that no matter how regulated they are, the markets cannot be absolutely efficient.
The main reasons for this affirmation are:
1. In real life, information has a cost; no matter how basic it is, not every investor can spend the same amount in obtaining it or receiving it at the moment it becomes public.
In fact, we can’t compare an economic investigation department in a large investment bank with the information a dentist, a student, a writer or a private investor negotiates in the stock market.
2. The difference between those that participate in the investment world. The knowledge of all the variables that are a part of an asset’s price is not the same for everyone, for which it is obvious that the more knowledgeable will take advantage of such knowledge.
If we start from the base that the results of the different investment analysis are reflected in prices, those who dominate such study techniques have a larger advantage than the rest of the investors.
Even more, according to this theory, there are people operating in the market whose only job is being a professional investor, who in turn are competing for the same stock as a common investor.
3. Not everyone has the same access facilities to different price maximizing mechanisms. It doesn’t matter if we get the correct information at the exact moment, be it due to cost or infrastructure, those who have the most advanced operation system will have an advantage.
For example, in our countries the operators with access to foreign markets are a minority, and even if they have all the information about the arbitrage techniques, are not able to sell ADR in New York and buy, simultaneously, stock for that company in the local market.
4. Another of the reasons and perhaps one of the most important is the access to information itself. In every country there are laws that punish privileged or inside information trafficking.
Why China Stocks Trade So Cheap (And Which Stocks Should Fly) [View article]
For now they are undervalued based on several metrics.
So we just have to wait.
Orient Paper: Inconsistent Record Keeping Raises Red Flags [View article]
The China Property Bubble [View article]
In China, consumers buying residential properties are required to put down 30 percent before taking out a mortgage. For a second home, the down payment is 50 percent, irrespective of their net worth. Home purchase is predicated on affordability not like in the West on debt (How much mortgage I can get?).
Today, there are some 360 million urban residents in China. In the next three decades, the figure is expected to grow to 970 million. What China is trying to achieve is unique in history – to create urban space to more than 610 million people, within a single generation.
In such an environment, periods of overheating will occasionally be accompanied by dramatic price increases. China’s urbanization rate is about 45 percent, whereas in Japan and other advanced countries it is more than 80 percent. As these nations reflect very different levels of economic development and different levels of individual prosperity, their real estate markets are different as well.
Despite its rapid pace of expansion, China’s real estate is still at a very preliminary stage. The marketplace is so colossal that there are no precedents, no simple models.
Yet the prospects for a robust growth remain intact. The key will be not to allow that growth to become threatened by a property bubble – while providing affordable housing for the rapidly-expanding new middle-class.
One of the most important conclusions of the big rise in house prices is of course URBANIZATION. As long as this process goes on house prices will increase slowly or rapidly.
Is Gold Losing Its Luster? [View article]
This big jump in gold prices in 2009 prompted several analysts to predict that gold was on a bubble that would burst soon. The bubble forecasters included noted economist Nouriel Roubini who said gold price is moving up on speculation and therefore the speculative bubble would burst any day. Global commodities investor Jim Rogers blasted Roubini saying that gold or for that matter any other commodity is not on any bubbles and that analysts like Roubini do not know the basic fundamentals of commodities/bullion markets.
The gold bubble debate continues.
Gold hit its record, inflation-adjusted peak at $850 in January 1980. That too was a time of high anxiety, caused then by double-digit inflation and interest rates; huge public- and private-sector debt; and geopolitical uncertainty after the two "oil shocks" of the 1970s. In the short space of a decade, the price of oil – a much bigger part of the Western economy than it is today – had skyrocketed from about $2 per barrel to $34.
But then the U.S. Federal Reserve Board finally broke the back of inflation. Economic growth boomed in the 1980s, and the stock market entered its greatest bull market in history. And gold went into a 19-year free fall, plummeting to a nadir of $252.90 in June 1999.
Gold, truth to tell, is a lousy investment. It pays no dividends and incurs high storage costs. It is illiquid (try paying for groceries with a gold bar). And it's in almost infinite supply. Central banks and the International Monetary Fund can and do regularly sell off gold from their reserves, flooding the market. Gold producers bring uneconomic mines back into production when a rise in gold prices makes them viable again.
And gold, unlike oil, does not change its chemical composition, and turn into something else, when used. Practically every bit of gold in use since the Pharaohs remains in existence. It is a notoriously "soft" metal useful in few industrial applications. For many precious-metals buyers, it is eclipsed in "aspirational" value by platinum.
And at its current price, gold still hasn't recovered over the past 30 years to meet, much less surpass, the $850 that had Torontonians lining up around the block in the bitter cold of January 1980 to buy gold wafers, bars and coins at the since-defunct Deak & Co. at King and Yonge Streets.
Taking inflation into account, gold should now be trading at $2,163.62 to match its previous high. Anyone who bought gold at its historic peak in 1980 is suffering a $1,313.62 loss three decades later on every ounce of gold purchased at that time.
Gold has increased in price by about 350 per cent since its 1999 nadir. You would have done better in that time with shares in the prosaic Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (up 771 per cent). If you'd bought stock in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. when it went public two years before gold hit its all-time 1980 peak, you would have gained 68,109 per cent on your investment.
Economic conditions today arguably are better than at the time of the mania three decades ago. The U.S. dollar has strengthened — accounting for gold's recent retreat - and will strengthen further as its economy recovers and its yawning trade gap with China narrows. It's the weakening of the greenback, more than anything, that accounts for the recent rush to gold.
Gold will retain its millennia-old appeal, freighted as it is with symbolism. But if an apocalypse truly does beckon, gold won't be much help to you.
As Roubini wrote his clients in December 2009: "If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities you can actually use in your log cabin."
The Reverse Merger Minefield [View article]
Some Thoughts About BlackBerry [View article]
Longwei Petroleum: The Most Brazen China-Based U.S. Listed RTO To Date [View article]
To blame contributors for investment losses is of course easy. Investing is taking risks and sometimes these risks are out of control.
Pepsi - Too Much Froth [View article]
The key growth items you will see in their snack business and healthy drinks. Especially in South East Asia they could double their revenues in a time frame of 4-5 years.
http://seekingalpha.co...
China Central Television Coverage Of Longwei Petroleum Reinforces GeoInvesting's Findings Of Fraud [View article]
European Telecom Companies Face Crisis But Offer Long-Term Opportunities [View article]
The story of DT is that the company expanded into the US and Eastern Europe to reduce dependence on its home market, which has been very competitive. DT responded with cost savings and price cuts and merged its German operations to become more competitive. DT has been changing its strategy and now aims to concentrate on Europe but the sale of the US mobile unit failed. In October 2012, DT announced to merge its US Mobile business into listed MetroPCS. The transaction enables an exit from the US at a later stage, which is positive. However lots of challenges remain. Rival SprintNextel got financial support from Japanese mobile operator Softbank and is speculated to launch a counter bid for MetroPCS.
Anticipated synergies look ambitious and the new company will remain a distant number 4 in the U.S. mobile market focusing on lower quality customers. The deal is better than none but is no game changer.
Q3 results were relatively solid. Guidance for 2012 including dividend per share was confirmed but management was more cautious on dividend. Analyst consensus already expects a 15% lower dividend in 2013. From a credit (bonds) perspective DT is an attractive defensive credit, because until now the company has reported predictable results, with robust top line margins and weakness in market share.
Interesting Opportunities In The Vitamin Market [View article]
Why people consider it a pump and dump? It's a long-term winner.
ChromaDex has so much potential, maybe management doesn't even know it.
Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map [View article]
AAPL is just going to buy TomTom so they don't have to worry about maps anymore.
Tibet Pharmaceuticals Looks Like A Terrible Bet [View article]
http://bit.ly/HctYdl
So, hopefully they come with a PR this week. I would say Thursday or Friday.
An explanation is wanted!
2 U.S.-Listed China Stocks To Buy Now [View article]