Seeking Alpha

Dutch Trader

 
View as an RSS Feed
View Dutch Trader's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Why China Stocks Trade So Cheap (And Which Stocks Should Fly) [View article]
    Everything has just to do with risk aversion. If risk appetite comes back in the markets, Chinese stocks are going to fly.

    For now they are undervalued based on several metrics.

    So we just have to wait.

    Sep 14 11:14 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orient Paper: Inconsistent Record Keeping Raises Red Flags [View article]
    This Orient Paper discussion is already going on for quite a long time, why a reporter of the Wall Street Journal or another respectable newspaper doesn't investigate the story. So the SEC gets also interested.
    Aug 12 12:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The China Property Bubble [View article]
    I refer to my own article of one week ago with some additions.

    In China, consumers buying residential properties are required to put down 30 percent before taking out a mortgage. For a second home, the down payment is 50 percent, irrespective of their net worth. Home purchase is predicated on affordability not like in the West on debt (How much mortgage I can get?).

    Today, there are some 360 million urban residents in China. In the next three decades, the figure is expected to grow to 970 million. What China is trying to achieve is unique in history – to create urban space to more than 610 million people, within a single generation.

    In such an environment, periods of overheating will occasionally be accompanied by dramatic price increases. China’s urbanization rate is about 45 percent, whereas in Japan and other advanced countries it is more than 80 percent. As these nations reflect very different levels of economic development and different levels of individual prosperity, their real estate markets are different as well.

    Despite its rapid pace of expansion, China’s real estate is still at a very preliminary stage. The marketplace is so colossal that there are no precedents, no simple models.

    Yet the prospects for a robust growth remain intact. The key will be not to allow that growth to become threatened by a property bubble – while providing affordable housing for the rapidly-expanding new middle-class.

    One of the most important conclusions of the big rise in house prices is of course URBANIZATION. As long as this process goes on house prices will increase slowly or rapidly.
    Aug 1 04:42 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Gold Losing Its Luster? [View article]
    Gold enthusiasts have been on a predictions-spree, forecasting that gold prices would surge to $2,000 per ounce, then $3,000 and eventually even jumping to $5,000 and $10,000 in course of the history.

    This big jump in gold prices in 2009 prompted several analysts to predict that gold was on a bubble that would burst soon. The bubble forecasters included noted economist Nouriel Roubini who said gold price is moving up on speculation and therefore the speculative bubble would burst any day. Global commodities investor Jim Rogers blasted Roubini saying that gold or for that matter any other commodity is not on any bubbles and that analysts like Roubini do not know the basic fundamentals of commodities/bullion markets.

    The gold bubble debate continues.

    Gold hit its record, inflation-adjusted peak at $850 in January 1980. That too was a time of high anxiety, caused then by double-digit inflation and interest rates; huge public- and private-sector debt; and geopolitical uncertainty after the two "oil shocks" of the 1970s. In the short space of a decade, the price of oil – a much bigger part of the Western economy than it is today – had skyrocketed from about $2 per barrel to $34.

    But then the U.S. Federal Reserve Board finally broke the back of inflation. Economic growth boomed in the 1980s, and the stock market entered its greatest bull market in history. And gold went into a 19-year free fall, plummeting to a nadir of $252.90 in June 1999.

    Gold, truth to tell, is a lousy investment. It pays no dividends and incurs high storage costs. It is illiquid (try paying for groceries with a gold bar). And it's in almost infinite supply. Central banks and the International Monetary Fund can and do regularly sell off gold from their reserves, flooding the market. Gold producers bring uneconomic mines back into production when a rise in gold prices makes them viable again.

    And gold, unlike oil, does not change its chemical composition, and turn into something else, when used. Practically every bit of gold in use since the Pharaohs remains in existence. It is a notoriously "soft" metal useful in few industrial applications. For many precious-metals buyers, it is eclipsed in "aspirational" value by platinum.

    And at its current price, gold still hasn't recovered over the past 30 years to meet, much less surpass, the $850 that had Torontonians lining up around the block in the bitter cold of January 1980 to buy gold wafers, bars and coins at the since-defunct Deak & Co. at King and Yonge Streets.

    Taking inflation into account, gold should now be trading at $2,163.62 to match its previous high. Anyone who bought gold at its historic peak in 1980 is suffering a $1,313.62 loss three decades later on every ounce of gold purchased at that time.

    Gold has increased in price by about 350 per cent since its 1999 nadir. You would have done better in that time with shares in the prosaic Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (up 771 per cent). If you'd bought stock in Wal-Mart Stores Inc. when it went public two years before gold hit its all-time 1980 peak, you would have gained 68,109 per cent on your investment.

    Economic conditions today arguably are better than at the time of the mania three decades ago. The U.S. dollar has strengthened — accounting for gold's recent retreat - and will strengthen further as its economy recovers and its yawning trade gap with China narrows. It's the weakening of the greenback, more than anything, that accounts for the recent rush to gold.

    Gold will retain its millennia-old appeal, freighted as it is with symbolism. But if an apocalypse truly does beckon, gold won't be much help to you.

    As Roubini wrote his clients in December 2009: "If you truly fear a global economic meltdown, you should stock up on guns, canned food and other commodities you can actually use in your log cabin."
    Jul 27 01:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Reverse Merger Minefield [View article]
    Of course there are some points that are clearly the case but I also want to add the following points. The failure rate of 85% mentioned in the article has also to do with the the risk aversion of private and professional investors for Chinese companies in general and the naked short selling by criminal entities.
    Jun 12 12:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Don't Be Fooled [View article]
    One question and then I will stop commenting to your articles QTR. It's nothing personal, but many folks just don't know how the auditing process works and think if an audit takes too long the company has to be a fraud.

    Do you have any idea how many NQ articles are you still going to write?
    Jul 9 11:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sino Agro Food: Take Action While You Are Waiting [View article]
    @JoeNatural @RealDutch Dilution is not the issue, because book value and EPS has grown accordingly.
    Jun 10 08:40 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adamis Pharmaceuticals: Still No Love After Uplisting To Nasdaq [View article]
    Thanks Joe, I will have a look!
    Apr 8 12:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Multiple Red Flags At Kingold Jewelry [View article]
    Interesting discussion! As a devoted investor in US-listed China small caps myself, the only thing I have to say to management teams of these companies. Improve your corporate governance, pay dividends, buy back stock, connect with your investor's base (road shows), look for a qualified CFO that understand US GAAP and other US regulations.


    Be open and transparant!
    Apr 7 02:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile, A Near-Term Road Map: Navigating Your Investment Through Uncertain Times [View article]
    They are writing some new stuff, so don't have time to comment. Time is money!

    .........................
    Dec 12 05:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile, A Near-Term Road Map: Navigating Your Investment Through Uncertain Times [View article]
    Congrats, an AAA article.

    Robert Zangrilli has to like this article as a historian. Odd, that he wrote an article about numbers he doesn't understand, while this article would fit more his profile.
    Dec 12 04:07 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Is Wrong On NQ Mobile And Muddy Water [View article]
    The first thing auditors nowadays do if a short seller article pops up that claims cash is not there is verifying those claims by immediately starting up the confirmation procedures.

    If there was the slightest doubt about cash the auditor in question would resign right away. They simply are not taking the risk anymore such as in other cases (Longtop).
    Dec 6 07:45 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Bull Is Wrong On NQ Mobile And Muddy Water [View article]
    Most of them are reverse mergers stocks with questionable auditors. NQ is the opposite .
    Dec 5 11:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Money Real? [View article]
    Maybe Paulo got paid a nice sum of money to write something questionable? LOL ...............just kidding! A little bit odd that you wrote this article.
    Nov 21 10:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NQ Mobile: Many Suspicious Recent Acquisitions [View article]
    Are you serious?

    I am getting bored of these fear mongering articles without any evidence of wrongdoing.

    Nov 18 02:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,123 Comments
983 Likes