Sell In May? Not According To These 3 Charts [View article]
Thank You as usual Lou. Itallian Stallion. Though to add a balancing POV, like Kerrys, the point of Selling in May is to avoid Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep which in your 1st chart is mildly negative.! The second chart only hilites how much more productive the cooler months are! The 3rd chart is at first a great proof, but on closer examination 1871 to 1951 BnH 1000x 1 to 1000 MO 10x 1 to 10 winner BnH 1951 to 2011 BnH 100x MO also 100x winner BOTH the 4th chart would be a Fund Managers dream, the Blue BnH is hideously volatile and only produces about the same NET result as the MayOct orange which in risk-adjusted eg Sharpe terms is far superior. All that said nice to have your relatively calming voice. Cheers
Sorry, Doomers, The Stock Market Isn't Divorced From Reality [View article]
All Hail Hale, Thanks for the article. Quite enjoyable- BTW what would motivate such an apparently loveable chap as yourself to become a "tax lawyer".? Anyways, Paradox is the KEY; another pertinent point is that stock returns do NOT have any direct correlation to GDP growth(Credit Suisse 83 countrys, 1979 to 2009) or in fact are mildly inversely correlated. Curioser and curioser, so indeed does lower risk(volatility) provide a higher return(Barclays, 1969 to 2010). It is quite easy for many to proclaim/presume this or that relationship, without m/taking the effort to look at reality/data; ie it doesnt even matter if the market IS divorced from these doomers "reality", the reality is that does NOT matter. Further your article provides another delightful disproof of their gloom. Good Luck
Japan: Why The Yen Will Move Lower And The Nikkei Will Move Higher [View article]
Nonsense! P = M x V !!! Look at the Japanese Money Base which has doubled in the last 12 years and Prices have persistently deflated. Increasing the Money Supply does NOT always lead to inflation. WHY? V! in the simplest Monetarist model, in this view the Velocity of Money is causing a classic Money TRAP, and the US is experiencing similar problems. Fed Pumps but previously risk-torn and averse Banks are not leanding to "risky" customers. Anyway as a Japanese lover I do hope it does work, though just rationally do not expect that
7 Reasons To Expect A Record-Breaking Year For Stocks [View article]
Thank You. Wonderful concise and varied data links supporting the article really appreciated. That GDP has NO correlation on Stocks.That Low volatility correlates to high returns. etc.maybe this IS the wall of worry that Bull markets mount.
I see. Cheers Travis. Havent been following much of late but what prob.ly(incorrectly) confuses some like kaboons is that your unabridled love of AAPL comes across in your twitter stream as a perma-Bull- the tone that is. Of course anyone who took the time to distinguish between your bullish tone and comments and the much more nuanced trading views would not go wrong. But kaboons prob.ly didnt take/make that time/effort. BTW are your option Flys etc still doing well?
FAS at 143 on 30 Jan 2013. How does SA publish this garbage?. Went from very overbought to mel brooks style very very extremely very overbought. High probability Mean reversion LOL. Bull trend my boy.
Options Trading: A Little Knowledge Is A Very Dangerous Thing [View article]
Funny.! Crazy even. The title is the answer. TB admits to little/ no trading "knowledge" and then yet presumes to make judgment on options;. and then makes quite a few ridiculous and some valid points. NO security in the history of Finance allows such precision tailoring of risk and reward exposure as Options. They are NOT as simple as shares. They are NOT for everyone. A lot of preparation is required. Once you commit to the intellectual and numerical grunt required they can be the most absurdly profitable and sometimes even safe place in the markets. There are at least 5 parameters in any option trade, mathematically, S , K , T , V, r. IF you can take a calculated VIEW on all of these you can obtain better returns for less risk than with ANY underlying. This has been proven. The proofs are not easy nor general public knowledge. In rebuttal of the negativity of this slightly nonsensical article. IF you CANNOT/Do Not take a view of ALL parameters as many "simple", inexperienced retails dont you can easily lose ALL your money even on buying just vanilla Puts And Calls. As an ex Market Maker heres a secret, most Books are NET Vol/Theta short-but yes once in a black swan these Books too are rarely cracked. Options further more offer the MOST AMAZING VARIETY of Views to be taken again simply unavailable on an underlying alone. eg 1 If a securitys price remains relatively unchanged.you can profit-can NOT do that with most underlyings. eg2 Sep AAPL ER I sold a nearTM VCS and a large Fund Manager did the opposite sold a nearTM Put, we both were nimble we both made excellent returns in one day with OPPOSITE positions. LOVE IT. To agree with the title Get Educated or Get Out. There are innumerable ways to make money with Options ( and lose too), but its Not going to be given to you easily. Its definitely worth the pain and effort. The despised complicated strategys are with the right underlying view, S, K, T, V are too sometimes amazingly profitable. There are quite a few doing short term Flys and ICs on AAPL making 600% in 20minutes etc. Good Luck
Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
No. If as the author demonstartes your thesis is NOT explaining the FACTS maybe you are wrong and need th change your thesis. Just suggesting. Or as Wilde might say, the market can be WRONG a lot longer than you can be solvent. LOL
Apple's War Chest: Rethinking the Theory That Cash Is a Burden [View article]
Great Article. Geordys comments too. As a valuation metric could be handy if it works:KISS. If it doesnt work then its useless. Georgdys point of 1 for 1(or less) is true, but that doesnt diminish the cash multiple valuation thesis. Only that this multiplier doesnt work does, You can both be right. And wrong. Thanks
Dogging The Dow: Examining The 'Dogs Of The Dow' Strategy [View article]
Thank you for the article. Some reasonable points too. Some simplistic strategys DO outperform the market: Cranky v DrGoldin. Depends what the strategy is(and perhaps the years invovled too). What is interesting is that with this Pedigree model of great fundamental criteria the performance is so relatively pathetic. Fundamentals and security price do NOT have such a clear and/or happy relationship. Nor even do the technicals. Which is why most get such paltry returns CF the heavy hitters.These take higher risks to get their high returns. Buffet did well, but he included/s other factors and his FOCUS strategy is not simplistic and is also very high risk. Good Luck to you all, and TY to the animal farm Cranky for his Cat and Dog fight addition, quite an enjoyable read
Trading Friday's (January 4, 2013) Unemployment Release And The Other Releases Too [View article]
StatsTrader Thank You. Nice to see someone else using hard data calculations and getting published on SA. One small request instead of using % for number of times please note the actual/raw frequency number, ie instead of 33.3% of the time please note 3 out of 10 times XLF went up. IE The percent here is meaningless, as what does 53.1% of the time increased mean? I have done all the stats for AAPL day of week right up to the fdfs, prob. wouldnt publish on SA, but if you are interested mightsend a sample. Regardless, after the stats are done as here the next even more important step is to identify actually profitable trades. Good Luck
Assessing My Recommendations In 2012, Plus My Top Pick For 2013 [View article]
Like Yin and Yang, and the two faces of a coin, RISK and RETURN are inextricably linked. LeftBanker put it succintly, the author is not calculating what he claims. Alpha is a risk-adjusted measure. The authors is not. I dont care but as southgent was a lawyer I would imagine even the US has Consumer Protection laws that forbid false/misleading claims. However as a real Quant to give Tom his dues, he does produce even correctly calculated alpha, and more to the point as he says(heresy)statistical price variance is a woeful way to measure risk; although that is precisely what alpha uses! and why I showed his pf returns only half the SPYs total(though still variance based)risk-adjusted Sharpe return. As a real Quant, option trader, futures traders with their fatal margins are/must be much more attuned to risk. Thats why they look at Maximum drawddown, etc. In Toms pf, 1 share YPF had a -52% return=Drawdown.Thats big! CF SPY of -1.77% !Only 1 share of a pf but still not appro for some.Most can compare returns thats easy, the part of successful traders is the analysis/management of RISK. Thats why so many get wiped out. Toms comments signal he is aware of many risk issues so he anyways will probably be OK. Just dont ignore RISK. Its like discussing a couple and only talking about one partner. or just as Macro said claim 10% return in excess of SPY NOT ALpha.!! SIMPLE. Thanks for the better than average SA article to Tom and all commenters too. Good Luck and Seasons Greetings
Assessing My Recommendations In 2012, Plus My Top Pick For 2013 [View article]
Thanks for links. So how does reducing Supply mean reducing Demand? Are you suggesting that with stricter EPA requirements the cost of coal energy will increase thereby leading to lower demand? Other than that sort of thing lower supply with constant or greater demand should lead to higher prices/profits.
Sell In May? Not According To These 3 Charts [View article]
Itallian Stallion.
Though to add a balancing POV, like Kerrys,
the point of Selling in May is to avoid
Jun,Jul,Aug,Sep which in your 1st chart is mildly negative.!
The second chart only hilites how much more productive the cooler months are!
The 3rd chart is at first a great proof, but on closer examination
1871 to 1951 BnH 1000x 1 to 1000 MO 10x 1 to 10 winner BnH
1951 to 2011 BnH 100x MO also 100x winner BOTH
the 4th chart would be a Fund Managers dream,
the Blue BnH is hideously volatile and only produces about the same NET result as the MayOct orange which in risk-adjusted eg
Sharpe terms is far superior.
All that said nice to have your relatively calming voice.
Cheers
Stocks And Bonds: The Rebalancing That Never Was [View article]
Agree and not expecting too soon but beware the tap urning off becoming a tsunami
Sorry, Doomers, The Stock Market Isn't Divorced From Reality [View article]
Thanks for the article.
Quite enjoyable-
BTW what would motivate such an apparently loveable chap
as yourself to become a "tax lawyer".?
Anyways, Paradox is the KEY;
another pertinent point is that stock returns do
NOT have any direct correlation to GDP growth(Credit Suisse 83 countrys, 1979 to 2009) or in fact are mildly inversely correlated.
Curioser and curioser, so indeed does lower risk(volatility) provide a higher return(Barclays, 1969 to 2010).
It is quite easy for many to proclaim/presume this or that relationship, without m/taking the effort to look at reality/data;
ie it doesnt even matter if the market IS divorced from these doomers "reality", the reality is that does NOT matter.
Further your article provides another delightful disproof of their gloom.
Good Luck
Japan: Why The Yen Will Move Lower And The Nikkei Will Move Higher [View article]
7 Reasons To Expect A Record-Breaking Year For Stocks [View article]
Apple: Even Poormen Achieve Alpha [View instapost]
The Foundation Of Options Trading [View article]
Options Trading: A Little Knowledge Is A Very Dangerous Thing [View article]
S, K, T, V are too sometimes amazingly profitable. There are quite a few doing short term Flys and ICs on AAPL making 600% in 20minutes etc. Good Luck
Something Is Definitely Broken With The Market [View article]
Apple's War Chest: Rethinking the Theory That Cash Is a Burden [View article]
You can both be right. And wrong. Thanks
Apple's War Chest: Rethinking the Theory That Cash Is a Burden [View article]
Dogging The Dow: Examining The 'Dogs Of The Dow' Strategy [View article]
What is interesting is that with this Pedigree model of great fundamental criteria the performance is so relatively pathetic. Fundamentals and security price do NOT have such a clear and/or happy relationship. Nor even do the technicals. Which is why most get such paltry returns CF the heavy hitters.These take higher risks to get their high returns. Buffet did well, but he included/s other factors and his FOCUS strategy is not simplistic and is also very high risk. Good Luck to you all, and TY to the animal farm Cranky for his Cat and Dog fight addition, quite an enjoyable read
Trading Friday's (January 4, 2013) Unemployment Release And The Other Releases Too [View article]
Thank You. Nice to see someone else using hard data calculations
and getting published on SA.
One small request instead of using % for number of times please note the actual/raw frequency number, ie instead of 33.3% of the time please note 3 out of 10 times XLF went up. IE The percent here is meaningless, as what does 53.1% of the time increased mean?
I have done all the stats for AAPL day of week right up to the fdfs,
prob. wouldnt publish on SA, but if you are interested mightsend a sample.
Regardless, after the stats are done as here the next even more important step is to identify actually profitable trades.
Good Luck
Assessing My Recommendations In 2012, Plus My Top Pick For 2013 [View article]
although that is precisely what alpha uses! and why I showed his pf returns only half the SPYs total(though still variance based)risk-adjusted Sharpe return. As a real Quant, option trader, futures traders with their fatal margins are/must be much more attuned to risk. Thats why they look at Maximum drawddown, etc. In Toms pf, 1 share YPF had a -52% return=Drawdown.Thats big! CF SPY of -1.77% !Only 1 share of a pf but still not appro for some.Most can compare returns thats easy, the part of successful traders is the analysis/management of RISK. Thats why so many get wiped out.
Toms comments signal he is aware of many risk issues so he anyways will probably be OK. Just dont ignore RISK. Its like discussing a couple and only talking about one partner. or just as Macro said claim 10% return in excess of SPY NOT ALpha.!! SIMPLE. Thanks for the better than average SA article to Tom and all commenters too. Good Luck and Seasons Greetings
Assessing My Recommendations In 2012, Plus My Top Pick For 2013 [View article]