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  • The 'Golden Age Of Biotechnology'? - After The Storm, An Update. [View article]

    Yeah, sadly, all true. Even the last sentence is sadly true.
    Oct 8, 2015. 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech In A Bear Market. First Move? Don't Panic! [View article]

    "predictable but unintended consequences of ill thought out and poorly excecuted power grab."

    That would have to be a power grab by corporations because if you look at who wrote most of the ACA, it was corporate managers.
    Oct 8, 2015. 03:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    Not a terd for me. I bought at 1.645. I'm up 40% for the year. Sorry that you sold at a low, exactly when I said to hold. Your own fault. You should accept responsibility for your actions, not blame others. Just a reminder to you and others on your call:

    Link for below discussion:

    "Why upon FDA approval with no revenue the stock was 3.40 and now it is 1.40 with FDA (3 approvals) and EMA approval????? I am just sick of waiting I might have to sell this stock as it looks like it will be dead money for some time and heading lower for sure.
    29 Apr, 03:30 PM

    DWD Investing
    Well, I think what we're seeing is capital running away from small cap bios to safer large cap bios or really down sectors like energy, hoping that the move will "pop" and they can get out with a nice profit--Bret Jensen just came out with an article today outlining the move away from small cap to large cap.

    That made a lot of sense to me because I was thinking for a few weeks now, "Where are these guys going?" Money is chasing a market that isn't growing due to economic fundamentals, but QE and stock buy backs.

    [There is also a looming concern of a biotech correction coming.]

    Companies are set to buy back 1T in 2015 starting about right now. So big money wants in on that. What will happen is they will dove into safer larger caps, you'll see a spike up, accumulation will be quickly exhausted 4-8 weeks), and then reallocation back into the now really low small cap bio sector.

    Right now, money is just moving around, and a good example of that is how money is moving out of NAVB even when they are going black Q1 2016 with positive 20% Q/Q increases in Lymphoseek and a good credit line to bridge to a JV or their own profit.

    There is nothing you can do about it except use any money you have to chase the equities that big money is chasing. Any large cap equity set to buy back huge sums of stock is a really good bet. But don't get caught in them too long because if this is correct, we're just in for huge volatility this year.

    ---->For those reasons, yeah, NAVB may just dump to sub dollar levels, but it should spike back up again like it did to $2 after money comes back in again.<----
    29 Apr, 09:55 PM

    "I am out good luck to all. Cant see watching losing 2% daily. Earnings will suck 1.3 million yippee, MT is years away."
    30 Apr, 10:02 AM

    DWD Investing , contributor
    "You exited your position? If you did that today, I think that was a really bad call, PJ."
    30 Apr, 04:36 PM

    "No I exited on Wed at 1.45"
    1 May, 08:50 AM


    Yes you did even with my best attempts to stop you from doing so at 1.45, and now you are mad at the company because you made a bad call?
    Oct 8, 2015. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Traders brace for Q3 earnings season [View news story]
    "of what some expect to be a swarm of lackluster Q3 reports."

    Could you please be more general? "Some" indeed.
    Oct 8, 2015. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech In A Bear Market. First Move? Don't Panic! [View article]

    If your reply is to me, I agree. And I don't see evil healthcare companies. However, 50% SSI disability money goes to what? It goes to private healthcare corporations because we don't have government healthcare. (Maybe an exception is VA?)

    Anyway, my point is that the ACA provided a nice boost in revenue, from taxes and higher premiums for those making too much for subsidy, to healthcare. And healthcare in the USA is a private affair.
    Oct 8, 2015. 12:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Golden Age Of Biotechnology'? - After The Storm, An Update. [View article]
    Pretty general article, really.

    "To sum up my views, I don't expect biotechnology to have a meaningful recovery even after the magnitude of this sharp decline and expect potentially more downside."

    It will recover. What is your time frame, one week, month, year, decade?

    "Also a lot of the 'no revenues' companies that have IPOed in the last 2-3 years haven't yet gone through the whole cycle of trials (pre-clinical, Phase 1, Phase 2, Phase 3, Approval), and it's often at the later stage of development that you have more opportunities for issues and adverse effects to arise - for the most problems/fails versus the expectations that had been embedded in price following promising data from earlier stages, see recent exhibit 1 and 2 PBYI and ESPR."

    You could say the same thing about any Phase of a company. "After a study reads out ‘positive’ (that is, with a p value below 0.05), the chance of a further study now failing is not less than 5% as suggested above. It might even be as high as 70% depending on the overall experimental design. This has nothing to do with changing end-points or populations. In fact, it has nothing to do with clinical trials or biology – it is down to an inherent, and frequently ignored, property of statistics itself."

    Which seems to play right into what you are saying, until we know the failure rate of Phase I vs Phase II and Phase III:

    "the likelihood of approval (LOA) from Phase 1 to be about 10% for all indications, and 15% for lead indications. From Phase 1 to Phase 2 success rates are about 65%; from Phase 3 to new drug applications success rates fall again between 60% and 68%. The biggest drop off comes moving from Phase 2 to Phase 3, with only 32% of all indications advancing."

    So sure, you're information is correct, but you are using it incorrectly. Your premise is that success rates drop off between Phase II and III, but Phase I is the worst. Using your own logic, we should be get out of biotech because Phase I's fail often. That doesn't work. I know what you want to say. You mean that even though there are many Phase II, III coming up, failure rates will push down overall market biotech prices, therefore, get out now. Again, this doesn't work for me.

    "The "whatever market can bear" pricing strategy has a limit and we have probably reached it already, and that's why the P/Es aren't high. . . ."

    For some companies yes, for others no. This is the specific to the general fallacy, unless you have statistical information to show overall that biotech markets are priced above equilibrium, or at it. Moreover, all companies should always be at equilibrium. It's good business. And if that is true, "the equilibrium is high get out" argument has no teeth.
    Oct 8, 2015. 12:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech In A Bear Market. First Move? Don't Panic! [View article]

    I think the comment above was a little loose to reply to, but the way I took it is similar to the Ford Pinto of the 1970s.

    Ford new about the gas tank problem, where the Pinto would burst into flames on specific rear end crashes. They decided NOT to recall the cars. Instead, they decided it would be more economically sound to pay off in court those who died or were maimed in those types of situations after being sued.

    The question is, would you support that sort of decision making, because that is what business did based on good economic models--and it was. It costs them less to pay the legal fees instead of recalling the cars.
    Oct 8, 2015. 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech In A Bear Market. First Move? Don't Panic! [View article]
    "Question is why is so little done to prevent the some $150 billion annually in Medicaid, Medicare and social security fraud? "

    That's easy--windfall profits to health care corporations. Even though Repubs chided the ACA, they actually were salivating that the Dems did their job, and they could, at the same time, play like they don't like it. Of course they love it. Both parties are corporatist in nature.

    I'm not saying they should not be, only that is the fact, as it should be, since we rely on market economies for economic structures.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    They do have proof of concept studies running for Manocept also. A good proof of concept announcement would solidify the range, if nothing else.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft's Continuum Has Potential To Be Disruptive, But Isn't There Yet [View article]

    Good article. As you know I've been saying this in comments for two years now. MS will get it right or MS will become irrelevant. That because smaller is always the future and too for consolidation. Everything you say here is spot on.

    However, laptop makers will not fade to black. They will simply make docking laptops sans CPU. They may even make them with high powered video cards, which would solve the gaming problem, since phones will eventually go x86--as you say they must.

    In my view, laptops will have a place to plug in the phone, like a docking station, and will provide a nice keyboard, peripheral outlets, a powerful graphics card, and a nice large (maybe even 19" or larger) OLED screen.
    Oct 8, 2015. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Is Vastly Undervalued [View article]
    7 more days and we'll be ranged around the 2.30-40 area. If it's done moving, I would expect short sell off soon. The thing is, short % is about the same as it always is. We need some news, and the good kind, with sugar on it.

    What do you all think will be the next material news?
    Oct 8, 2015. 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just When You Thought It Could Not Get Any Dumber... [View article]
    Well, it makes an easy target, right? :)
    Oct 7, 2015. 08:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Cyclicality Will Delay The Inevitable Crash For Another Year [View article]
    Hey John,

    Fair enough and thanks for thee explanation and article.
    Oct 7, 2015. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Just When You Thought It Could Not Get Any Dumber... [View article]
    Why even listen to CNBC? Their a tabloid trying to sell rags.
    Oct 7, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Cyclicality Will Delay The Inevitable Crash For Another Year [View article]
    "I am going to illustrate this with the lead up to the collapse of the bull markets of the 1920s and 1990s. Although the 1920s appear to be a better fit to the experience of the 2010s, the lack of monthly data makes it necessary to turn to the 1990s to round out the picture somewhat. Both are suitable, because they were both unexpectedly massive bull markets that began in the wake of war and recession and coincided with global deflation and economic and political turmoil."

    I'm not convinced the 1929 and 1990 are anywhere near similar enough to predict 2017. I'm not saying your conclusion is wrong, only that I am not being convinced that your premises lead to that conclusion. And, if your conclusion is correct, but the premises don't lead to that conclusion, you are correct by accident.

    However, it's a good article and food for thought, regardless of the formal structure.
    Oct 7, 2015. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment