Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

DWD Investing  

View DWD Investing's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals: Biding My Time For Alpha [View article]
    LOL, no, they have to cover. Since fully 30% is shorted, if it short squeezes, it could run up substantially as short limits are tripped.

    If you have 40-50M laying around, you could cause it yourself.
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Snp, go to his article and read our dialogue. He's right, actually, after he explained it.

    His article says that Ocata's iPSC IP took a hit. So, yes, if the Nature article was retracted, the argument would be invalidated also. However, Ocata just bought iPSC technology from Allele. So, he's right in that respect.

    It seems as if Allele's technology is replacing Ocata's iPSC cell technology. Otherwise, they'd have used their own.
    Mar 31, 2015. 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ocata Therapeutics To Trade On Nasdaq Global Market: Can The Bulls Finally Rejoice? [View article]
    I seriously cannot see AMD trials starting any sooner than Q1 2016, especially if they want SPA status before they start. I think we'll be lucky to see SMD trials start up any sooner than Q4 2015.

    And, we won't see anything start unless they get funding, or simply start huge dilution up again. However, if there isn't any institutional interest at all, well, that's an unsustainable business model.

    How many biotech companies at this stage make it without some sort of institutional support? I'd bet zero.

    Sorry, I'm just not seeing any upside here for the next year, if at all, unless:
    They can somehow get SAP status for the US SMD trials and actually start them Q2 and IF they can get institutional support, it could work out. If they fail that timeline, it's looking grim (with the only option dilution) and no institutional support.

    Look, if institutions thought there was money to be made funding Ocata, they'd get it.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wake Me Up When The Second Half Of 2015 Begins [View article]
    It looks as though my number one wish for 2015 is coming true:

    Instead of a huge correction of 20% or more, we're going to move sideways in a ranged market. I'll take it, however boring it is.
    Mar 31, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Flee Market At Crisis Level Pace [View article]
    Bill,

    "The rest is the tale of woe, investors pulling out of stocks, moving into high grade bonds (with scant yields) and money market fund (yielding nothing)."

    Yeah, I can't understand that. If they don't get their huge correction, they they will pile right back out and into equities.

    I don't even listen to the FED anymore; first they will, then they won't, then they can't , then they don't, will, won't can, don't bull$**t!

    Investors pulling out and into zero to no yield bonds are trying to time market correction, or even cause it by removing billions from equities. Well, good for them. We'll see how their clients like it when they return 2.5% for the year.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BioTime launches pilot program for COPD smartphone app [View news story]
    M. West may be a better marketer than scientist. Apps are the word!
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Competition Could Lower Nokia's Valuation By Up To 10% [View article]
    You all did see ALU killer contract in China Mobile 4G today right? The release made it sound like this contract is so big it puts ALU on the same level 4G supplier wise as Nokia.

    It looks like the competition Trefis talked about is coming true?

    I told you. Don't mess with Trefis. Those guys have more brain power and analytic ability than half the developed world combined. lol
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology's Intellectual Property Takes A Hit [View article]
    I see what you are saying now. I misread your premise too, so I apologize for that.

    You are comparing Ocata's iPSC IP vs. them buying iPSC cells from Allele. So given your very specific premise "Ocata's IP [on iPSC cells] takes a hit," you are correct--in fact, they have at least in some degree or completely (we don't know) replaced their own iPSC cells with Allele technology.

    It's like they just gave up on their iPSC cells and decided to license them from Allele. So in that respect, yes, you are correct.

    I'm wondering if it really matters given what Ocata is doing "with" the cells? I mean, as others have stated, the gold isn't in what cells they use, but how they use them?

    But, your argument is indeed still valid given your specific premise on iPSC's, for sure, assuming Allele cells replace Ocata's, not just add too their product pipeline, and we have no reason to think that Ocata is using both. That, and they licensed Allel's technology, and haven't licensed their own. So currently, I have to agree with you. Ocata isn't going using their own cells iPSC cells. That's where I see the evidence leading.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Navidea Biopharmaceuticals: Biding My Time For Alpha [View article]
    It's a battle right now man. This is trading central on NAVB, not investing currently. 30% of the equity is shorted and shorts want their money!

    Watch time and sales and a 30 day chart focused on support of 1.55 and price changes vs volume. Painting a pretty clear picture of what is going on. Buyers are trying hard to push the price up but are getting smacked by shorts.

    If you are wanting to trade this equity, you're going to need some balls currently. If you're long, just go to sleep and hold. It will go up based on fundamentals.

    A break in support at 1.55 could be a nice buying opportunity. Always look at it as an opportunity, not a defeat.

    A good sign is that in this consolidation period, every spike up is traced with increase volume, whereas every move down shows a volume pull back. That tells me accumulation moves are stronger than distribution moves.

    We shall see soon where this is going. IF it breaks above 1.70, it could move fast, depending on volume.

    People are trading this equity currently, not investing in it. Take advantage of it if you like.
    Mar 31, 2015. 11:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alcatel-Lucent scores China Telecom deal, unveils new optical tech [View news story]
    That's because we don;t know how much the contract is worth.

    "Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) has landed a 4G infrastructure deal with China Telecom that will make it one of the carrier's three largest 4G suppliers, along with Huawei and Nokia."

    How much? Nokia hasn't moved and it IS one of the largest 4G suppliers, plus Nokia has a mountain of MS cash, still.

    Good news, but man, this is a rough market.
    Mar 31, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology's Intellectual Property Takes A Hit [View article]
    Esekla,

    "I think Ocata paying for the technology to create these cells, rather than being paid for it validates my original argument as presented here."

    Well, we can believe whatever we want. Please consider:

    Your entire article rests on this premise: "A recent paper published in the scientific journal Nature calls into question the value of ACTC's iPSC patents," which is now false.

    It's not your fault that the paper was falsified, but if your argument here depends on that premise to make it true, then the entire argument is now invalid.

    However, your conclusion may be correct. In that case, you would need new premises that lead directly to your current "belief" that the conclusion here, in this article, is correct.

    In other words, you'd need to show that your replacement premise (Ocata licensing cells from Allele) leads to the conclusion that Ocata's IP isn't as meaningful or substantial as people think.

    I also think you should update the article noting that your original premise is now invalid, even though you think the conclusion is true.
    Mar 30, 2015. 02:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Esekla,

    "Haruko Obokata, the stem-cell biologist whose papers caused a sensation earlier this year before being retracted, has resigned from the RIKEN Center for Developmental Biology in Kobe, Japan.

    . . . .

    Her emotional resignation letter was posted on RIKEN’s website on December 19 alongside results of the organization’s own investigation, which failed to confirm her claims of a simple method to create pluripotent stem cells.

    . . . .

    Obokata’s method—known as stimulus-triggered acquisition of pluripotency, or STAP—was published in Nature in January. However, the results immediately came under suspicion, and the papers were retracted in July. A few weeks later, one of the paper’s co-authors, Yoshiki Sasai, took his own life."
    http://bit.ly/1HehcWF

    So, I'm wondering if you article here is based on that paper, is your conclusion invalidated as well?
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Do you know when Ocata's patents--that would affect it's MAD therapy--expire? Once a patent is issued, a company only has 20 years to profit from them before the patent becomes public domain.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Advanced Cell Technology Interim Results And Shelf Offerings [View article]
    Yeah, I think he need to clarify his position. If his article "Intellectual property takes a hit" was based on that one publication, then it is definitively invalid at this point. It should be taken down, if so.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Advanced Cell Technology's Intellectual Property Takes A Hit [View article]
    I rember this, but never read it. It's substatial:

    "Haruko Obokata, the stem-cell biologist whose papers caused a sensation earlier this year before being retracted, has resigned from the RIKEN Center for Developmental Biology in Kobe, Japan.

    Her emotional resignation letter was posted on RIKEN’s website on December 19 alongside results of the organization’s own investigation, which failed to confirm her claims of a simple method to create pluripotent stem cells. . . .Obokata’s method—known as stimulus-triggered acquisition of pluripotency, or STAP—was published in Nature in January. However, the results immediately came under suspicion, and the papers were retracted in July. A few weeks later, one of the paper’s co-authors, Yoshiki Sasai, took his own life."
    December 2014 (http://bit.ly/1HehcWF)
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
9,470 Comments
5,911 Likes