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Dylan Byrd  

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  • Medical Marijuana: It's Just A Pump And Dump [View article]
    And wasn't it proven not to be? The bubble on that one burst in 2000 and thousands of investors lost huge. If you are buying this company now, it is only based on your own "self-accounting" for the market size and how much of that market the company will be able to obtain. How do you know who ends up winning in the end? If you want to know the "Facts" for this as everyone has been alluding to in the comment section, the "Facts" are there is no proven potential, "Regardless of state laws to the contrary, there is no such thing as 'medical' marijuana under Federal law," and even the products which have been shared as miracle working products: have no clearly proven track record of producing profit. Investing in this company now, and I emphasize now, is like investing in the airline industry/single car manufacturers during their early years. Even though you can "clearly see the potential," there is no guarantee that shareholders will be the ones that profit from the trend, even if the trend is right. What guarantees/precedence do you have for how this company will distribute its profits? Will it go to employees? Will it go to suppliers? Or management? Or will it actually make it to shareholders?
    For these reasons, and the "coincidence" that the company fits the pump and dump style all too well, I recommend no one touches this company. You may be right in the end about the trend of the market potential, but the price you are paying today does not compensate you well for the risks you are taking.
    Feb 18, 2013. 06:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG - Buy It Today For Value And Sell Covered Calls For A 37.5% Annualized Yield Rate [View article]
    Good points, and I like your idea for seeking a great yield, but I would warn you that the current PE is deflated due to subsidies from the government. I think if you look a little closer, and apply a regular tax rate (as opposed to the huge tax credit) then the stock is currently trading at a PE of about 10 or a little more. Still, good points about how the company is backed by the US government, and honestly, that is one of the biggest reasons I am invested with them. I see the discount as an added bonus, and I wish you luck in your investing. Thank you for the insights
    Feb 10, 2013. 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • On Growing Embedded Value [View article]
    In my opinion, even though there are ghost towns, why not take advantage of one of the companies that is most directly contributing to that infrastructure? I'm looking at LIWA. Although you could argue the Bubble is going to come crashing down for property. The stock is already trading at cash value, and honestly, since I just got a glimpse at all the infrastructure they built, I'm prone to believe that the company has the money it says it does.
    Jan 19, 2013. 06:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking to raise maybe another $6.5B in cash, AIG has put on offer the rest of its stake (13.7%) in AIA Group. Hank Greenberg used to call AIA the crown jewel of AIG, but today's shareholders - adding the $6.5B to the $4.23B from the ILFC sale - will no doubt be excited about the stock repurchase possibilities. [View news story]
    Two things: you misinterpret my comment on deploying their capital efficiently for what I would like them to do in my article (in only make sense for me as a share holder to gain even more BV per share, in my mind it is the simplest way to do so). I'll tell you right now, that is not what I meant in the comment.
    I agree with you that they need to cover their butts on Sandy, but the amounts don't match up entirely. The highest I heard was in the amount of $2 Billion, but more lately I have heard $1.3 Billion. The company is going to take a loss, and their profitability until interest rates rise will be hindered for the next few years (just like other financials)..
    Dec 17, 2012. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking to raise maybe another $6.5B in cash, AIG has put on offer the rest of its stake (13.7%) in AIA Group. Hank Greenberg used to call AIA the crown jewel of AIG, but today's shareholders - adding the $6.5B to the $4.23B from the ILFC sale - will no doubt be excited about the stock repurchase possibilities. [View news story]
    Not if they deploy these funds in a more efficient way, and for that: only time will tell.
    Dec 17, 2012. 12:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream (SODA) looks like a holiday season retail winner to StreetAuthority. The company's rapidly growing retail footprint hits at a time when consumers are focused on cost savings and health. Profits are still growing, while debt isn't an issue. [View news story]
    I don't agree with the idea for a buy back. The company is in its early breaking out stages and the capital would be better deployed to expand the business. I am perfectly fine with the stock price stagnating while there is development in the company, it makes the margin of safety even bigger for more purchases. I hope it goes back down to the 35$ range I initiated this position in so I can have even more shares at an even better deal.
    Dec 15, 2012. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Year Could See Immediate Recession At Worst, Slower Growth At Best [View article]
    so do any of the bears here have money in the stock market?
    Dec 14, 2012. 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Management can now devote 100% of its attention to driving returns," writes Sterne Agee of AIG following Treasury's exit. Rating the stock a Buy, the team hopes in the near future to see a dividend, details on cutting expenses, and a change to management-incentive programs to realign them with shareholder interests. Shares +0.8% premarket. [View news story]
    They must think the company will go back to its old ways... The cool part about it is that the people who were a part of those old ways leading the company down the wrong path are gone, and replaced with management which I have extreme confidence in. The shell name of AIG may be the same, but it's outlook is completely different than what these people think. By the time they trust it though, that will be the time I will sell.
    Dec 13, 2012. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Management can now devote 100% of its attention to driving returns," writes Sterne Agee of AIG following Treasury's exit. Rating the stock a Buy, the team hopes in the near future to see a dividend, details on cutting expenses, and a change to management-incentive programs to realign them with shareholder interests. Shares +0.8% premarket. [View news story]
    Call me naive, but this is still a great deal...
    Dec 12, 2012. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On AIG, And When Efficient Market Hypothesis Fails: A Chance To Make Real Returns [View article]
    Okay Abigsoxfan, I can see that maybe not all of their assets right now are worth book value (ILFC), but you can't tell me that everything they have, particularly their bonds which make up about 3/5 of their assets should be discounted.
    Dec 12, 2012. 09:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG agrees to the sale of an 80.1% stake in its plane-leasing unit - ILFC - for $4.23B, valuing the entire business at $5.28B, a bit less than the $5.5B bandied about on Friday. The good news: AIG's continued refocus on core operations, and the raising of cash to buy back shares. The bad news: The sale price is about two-thirds of ILFC's book value, and certainly less than what AIG had hoped it might fetch when it began talking about an IPO many moons ago. (PR[View news story]
    Something that has been missing even from my analysis would be that even though rising interest rates are seen as a risk, insurance companies (most are close to book value, and some like AIG are below book value) would like to see higher interest rates. This would allow them to create more cash from assets which are sitting with very low rates today.
    I won't claim to know everything about their form 10-K. It is daunting. But if you've read through a CMG balance sheet, and a BJRI balance sheet (two restaurants, which are relatively understandable) then you have read through an AIG balance sheet. I wouldn't say you need to read through it all. Half of it is redundant as the same risks in each section of the company are repeated. I feel you are provided the information you would want though. You can't let the length deter you, it really is full of a lot of informative stuff.
    Dec 11, 2012. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG agrees to the sale of an 80.1% stake in its plane-leasing unit - ILFC - for $4.23B, valuing the entire business at $5.28B, a bit less than the $5.5B bandied about on Friday. The good news: AIG's continued refocus on core operations, and the raising of cash to buy back shares. The bad news: The sale price is about two-thirds of ILFC's book value, and certainly less than what AIG had hoped it might fetch when it began talking about an IPO many moons ago. (PR[View news story]
    I agree, The Hammer, selling for less than book value to buy stock for less than book value seems to be a symbol of this company's struggles recently. I just hope that everyone forgets about the past (except the company itself) and grows back to even half of its former glory.
    Dec 10, 2012. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AIG agrees to the sale of an 80.1% stake in its plane-leasing unit - ILFC - for $4.23B, valuing the entire business at $5.28B, a bit less than the $5.5B bandied about on Friday. The good news: AIG's continued refocus on core operations, and the raising of cash to buy back shares. The bad news: The sale price is about two-thirds of ILFC's book value, and certainly less than what AIG had hoped it might fetch when it began talking about an IPO many moons ago. (PR[View news story]
    Paul, your type of cynicism is exactly the kind that got me a great deal on this stock. I highly doubt we'll have to bail them out again. But you know, it is a "free" market so who knows, maybe the greedy pigs depicted by the media earlier are still controlling this one and I'm just being too optimistic. I would say most of your fears are already priced in, but then again, if you think AIG is going bankrupt then your fears will never be priced in until 0.
    Dec 9, 2012. 10:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On AIG, And When Efficient Market Hypothesis Fails: A Chance To Make Real Returns [View article]
    My apologies. I will make my points more straight forward. This article is mainly a supplement to my last article I published a few days ago. I agree that it sort of seems chopped and tossed together. There are just so many different moving parts which affect the future of this stock which I tried to address on both sides, it just got to be too much.
    I will keep your feedback in mind on my next article, and I will definitely hope that you approve of how the information is presented next time. I am exploring writing styles on the website, and I will do my best to make a more clear and guided presentation of related data next time.
    Dec 6, 2012. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On AIG, And When Efficient Market Hypothesis Fails: A Chance To Make Real Returns [View article]
    I mentioned BV a lot more in my previous article I mentioned, but wanted to expand more on the negative side in this article. So in your professional opinion, do you think they have valued their liabilities correctly? To me they seem to be much better, but I don't have the expertise as you do. By the way, thank you for taking time to comment. I am learning just as much as everyone here and I am posting these articles to not only share what I see, but to hear what others are seeing as well.
    Also, this may just be a typo, but undervaluing by $10 billion? I would think it was more like $100 Billion before.
    Dec 6, 2012. 07:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
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