Comments on Dylan Jovine's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/dylan-jovine/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-300585 300585 Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:12:36 -0500
The problem is that 95% of the so-called investors out there don't use technical analysis properly. Predictions are for the novice! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-286927 286927 Tue, 21 Oct 2008 05:22:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-285387 285387 Sat, 18 Oct 2008 20:16:47 -0400
Forgetting periods of mass hysteria... the 'game' of market (be it gold, stocks, bonds, tulip-bulbs, etc.) is arbitrage, which is inherently relative to the 'real value' of that market.

An obvious idea until you try to assess that 'value'. Is it buildings and trucks (pretty safe to estimate)?, or brand value (?). Add to the buildings and trucks, the recent concept of 'efficient information systems' like amazon, google, and ebay, where the internal information flow mastery is every bit as real as a truck, but much harder to measure... what is a fair book value?

As an optimist, I like to trust the annual/quarterly reports, but ala Adam Smith's anecdotes in the timeless 'The Money Game', creative accounting and greed often leave reality behind. How many more Enrons are lurking out there?

Dylan's advice makes sense in most contexts, which is all one can ask for in such an article - Additionally, his points make even more sense if you consider the inversion of any single element: e.g. would you invest in a company with a CEO that didn't have and interest in the firm? Is it wise to buy into something that you know nothing about? If so, how can you estimate the exit point?

thanks for the good read. it keeps the gears going.

good luck out there!

--ikk]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-285091 285091 Sat, 18 Oct 2008 06:38:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-285084 285084 Sat, 18 Oct 2008 05:30:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284808 284808 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 15:50:09 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284784 284784 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 15:21:08 -0400
If the author had simply dusted off his Burton Malkiel (A Random Walk Down Wall Street), he would see all of the metrics that indicate why it's not a good idea to speculate on market bets (value or otherwise). Malkiel makes an indisputable historic observation about the valuelessness of green-eye-shade technical analysis, stock gurus, actively managed mutual fund investing, and the inevitable market bubbles created by the greatest fool who is last to enter those boom periods.

A simple, more effective, and boring approach for a long-term investor is to dollar-cost average into broadly based indices and forget about trying to achieve what can never be achieved --- becoming the one who truly understands what a company does, what is its true value, and even worse, what it will become in the future.

The market is efficient, and those who try to predict do so at their own peril.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284666 284666 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 13:08:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284632 284632 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 12:29:19 -0400
The example cited, Cisco, has been selling routers forever. At the top, it had a P/E of 132:1, a market cap of 543 billion and sales of 12 billion.

Today, the P/E is 10.5, it has sales of 39.5 billion and a market cap of 104 billion.

The stock price today, around $17, is the same as it was in November, 1998. Cisco has never paid a dividend.

If I am a long-term investor, could somone please tell me why I should be interested in buying Cisco today? Will the E of the P/E continue to increase, will the P/E ration expand, will they sell more routers, will management continue to perform, etc. etc.

If Cisco can double, why can't it be cut in half? Last question: how many products, companies, financial statements, management qualifications, etc. can the author be an expert on?

Don't you see that this is the same sales pitch that every mutual fund manager, private equity manager, etc always make. These fundamental approaches are 99% of the way its sold in the professional marketplace. Only 1% of investors rely solely on technical analysis. I don't have it in front of me, but I would guess that the vast majority of the Fortune 400 have made their money in private businesses that later went public, in leveraged real estate or some form of commodity business such as oil.

There will be very few professional money managers in the 400. Maybe a while ago, but not today.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284630 284630 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 12:26:57 -0400
May I add another wrinkle on other people's investment advice? When the conventional opinion is fairly uniform, go the other way. And this includes advice on some sound value companies. For years, Washington Mutual showed up on lists of most recommended stocks. Of course, following your advice above to avoid stocks with more than 40% debt, you would avoid all financials, right?

Another example - last year investment advisers were uniform in recommending diversification into international stocks (and commodities), probably because of the declining dollar which was destined to decline further because that was the chart trend. That worked well, didn't it?

Right now, Walmart is the most recommended stock. That would presumably mean it has a lot of support from institutional buyers, but it's not going to be a good long-term prospect. Too big to grow much, and it's a retailer, a sector like airlines. They come, they go.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284596 284596 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 12:00:19 -0400
Dividend Growth Investor]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284425 284425 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 09:45:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-284254 284254 Fri, 17 Oct 2008 01:51:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283979 283979 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 16:01:45 -0400 Sometimes this is just too easy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283925 283925 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:59:54 -0400 "Experience has taught me that the flip side of the panic coin is "opportunity." That's why, whenever I hear the word "crisis," I replace it with "opportunity": As in the "Greatest Opportunity Since the Great Depression.""

I have heard before that the Chinese symbol for opportunity and crisis are the same! just a factoid for everyone.....

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283868 283868 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 14:01:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283741 283741 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 12:04:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283712 283712 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:46:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283691 283691 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:38:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283686 283686 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:33:34 -0400
Your initial point re chartists is so spot-on! Whenever I see one spouting their "expertise", I see a driver steering his vehicle by firmly grasping his rear-view mirror!

Also, your advice to understand what a company does before investing is so basic and yet so often ignored. But it has served Uncle Warren well over the years, hasn't it? As has his advice to panic when others are greedy and be greedy when others are in panic.

You are, however, very forgiving of stockbrokers. My experience of them over forty plus years of investing is a bit less charitable. I define a broker as someone who will likely make you moreso.

Overall, a very good article. Thank you.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283685 283685 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 11:33:30 -0400
Does anybody on this board have a way of tracking Siri and Xm market cap over the past 5 years? Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283638 283638 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 10:35:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283628 283628 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 10:24:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/100224-the-most-dangerous-place-to-get-investing-advice?source=feed#comment-283627 283627 Thu, 16 Oct 2008 10:23:38 -0400
That should be the new slogan for Seeking Alpha.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-268258 268258 Mon, 29 Sep 2008 08:33:30 -0400 W may have had a C average.
Al Gore FAILED out of his first endeavour in college - divinty school.
Last time I looked, C beats an F. Now Al is just preached another religion. Rather have the so-called moron whom we understand than the morons who never have understood us and, frankly, don't give a rat's ass about the middle class. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-267809 267809 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 17:25:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-267588 267588 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 13:25:08 -0400
Where were you when the "party" was raging?
Are you wise only at looking back after the finacial failure-of-the-century already happened?
Why didn't you ask your wise questions then when they were needed? They are useless now.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-267536 267536 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 12:26:16 -0400 by peaceful or revolutionary means-into making the laws."
Frederic Bastiat
Madison and the others assumed that a democratic majority would never be attained and that was their defense of a strong central government. Wake up.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-267410 267410 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 10:24:15 -0400
I hope we can get past the finger pointing and blame game, learn our lesson (about ourselves), make the neccesary (not over reacting) adjustments, and get back to living a healtier and more responsible lifestyle.

Cheers!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97526-the-secret-villain-behind-our-economic-collapse?source=feed#comment-267389 267389 Sun, 28 Sep 2008 10:02:10 -0400
Are we going to learn and becareful next time? Perhaps

20 years later, I guarantee there will be a repeat. It's all human nature here...]]>