Comments on Early Bird's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/early-bird/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-248949 248949 Tue, 09 Sep 2008 00:07:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-246681 246681 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 22:28:44 -0400
And the difference between the 70's and now amount to 3 billion extra mouths to feed. And from what I'm being told nitrogen in particular from China was slowing considerably before summer (based on what I saw from the pre-Olympic sailing invasive species hyper-population no wonder if they are consuming nitrogen domestically). Employing nitrogen-fixing species in farming is a useful but slower process and not practical for corn.

And if prices fall won't that drive supply out of the market too? As long as we are stuck with ethanol as a "solution" fundamentals IMHO will prevail. The buy signal? Mirror mirror on the wall.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-246671 246671 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:54:13 -0400
I think the price of POT has just gone in lockstep with the general trend of commodities (gold, oil, etc) and that is primarily a function of hedge funds dumping commodities and commodity-related stocks in a very big way recently, primarily on dollar strengthening. Many people can't imagine how much money these funds control and how much they influence market prices.

It's pretty simple. When the dollar weakens the hedgies pile into commodity-related investments to (duh) hedge inflation, driving prices into euphoria-inducing regions and when the dollar strengthens they pile out, causing much fear and uncertainty to us regular Joe investors who hold commodity-related investments and think about things like company performance or commodity fundamentals (which do remain positive, I believe).

So what we are seeing now with corrected POT and commodity prices should turn around when the dollar resumes it's decline and the hedge funds pile back in again. However, that may take some time. The better part of a year, I believe. Plus or minus. The dollar (and commodities) will trade in a sideways range during this period.

Patience and faith is required of us long-termers who do not have the inside dope on what the hedge funds or the centrals banks are going to do before they do it.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-246595 246595 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 18:18:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-245761 245761 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 17:17:34 -0400
I'm skeptical of any claim that total human food demand has fallen. Consumers might be moving to cheaper alternative foods though - more or less processed, whichever's cheaper.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-245710 245710 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:21:52 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-245708 245708 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 16:17:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-245569 245569 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 13:08:39 -0400
POT is at the 38.2 retracement

the 50% is at $136 and

the61.8% is at $111

Other levels suggest $111 is the greater possibility]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-245540 245540 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 12:44:47 -0400
jimrogers-investments....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-245129 245129 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 02:44:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244948 244948 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 18:51:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244848 244848 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 16:09:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244778 244778 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 15:02:13 -0400
The dynamic of higher protein diets for a billion+ folks is powerful, amplified by non-sensical mandates for the conversion of corn to dirty fuel.

S & P - btw reiterated target of 280 after last earnings call.

The elephant in the ointment is the impact from the union strike.

Looks like a pretty good entry...

Good Huntin'
fc
fancam.com
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244751 244751 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:40:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244571 244571 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:56:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244569 244569 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:55:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244508 244508 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:11:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244502 244502 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:05:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244501 244501 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:05:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244479 244479 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:46:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244458 244458 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:32:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244457 244457 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:32:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244450 244450 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:26:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244444 244444 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:20:33 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244439 244439 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:18:15 -0400
Their P/E (as on bberg) is about 49 and 44 respectively while the Est 1Year P/E is 13 and 10. If that is any indication the street is expecting a 4x increase in EPS number from these companies.

There is no major volume expansion coming on-line in 2008 or 2009 so that means that 4x EPS increase should come from margin expansions. Seems too aggressive.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244433 244433 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:12:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93718-what-s-in-store-for-the-fertilizer-industry?source=feed#comment-244432 244432 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 10:11:18 -0400