Echo To All

Why Copper ETN Is Up More than 70% Year-To-Date

You do realize you stated the following in the same article...

"Record-high demand, primarily as the world’s top copper consumer goes on a commodities shopping spree, has led to a surge in both the price of copper and the related ETN. "

Then...

"The overall demand for copper on a global level is not yet high enough to increase production."

I bit counter intuitive... no. Or just bullshit.

Demand this present, yet they do not increase production. But they can justify little demand so they do not increase production. Yet the price of the commodity rises rapidly.

One would think its a classic act of manipulation from the few large miners we got making their gentleman's agreement... if one were a cynical person

Why This Rally Is Unsustainable

Naufal,

ur over thinking urself here. This rally was not caused by quants or technials. There were very real economic factors that indicated and continue to lead to, stabilization. The market acted accordingly.

The economic footing will prevent a retest of the lows, the low valuations will simply not be justified.

(quant trading facilitates or exaggerates movements, it does not create a sustained market rally as we recently had)

Is It Possible the Current Recession Was Caused by Oil Prices, Not Housing?

"his hypothetical case is remarkably similar to the actual path" -how does he define the hypothetical case?

This argument is truly very hard to believe... but then again, anything can be made true so long as you define everything properly. That's how we got into the financial mess... ignore the obvious truths, and use skewed data to tell you what you want to hear.

The Plight of the Overpaid Banker

the current compensation model can still work, so long as the proper regulations are in place to supress systemic risk. The domino effect will take place...

w/ proper regulation, specifically designed to supress systemic risk, an attempt toward ill gotten gains will be thwarded.

So the banker will only make 'Z' amount instead of 'Z x 33'. Then the banker can keep his/her money.

(its just that going forward it will not be multiplied due to crazy leverage... they can bitch all they want about this very important fact. Then stop working as bankers, and start working at Sysco)

Dendreon Holders: Protect Yourself

no sense of panic here. look at my earlier DNDN articles (years ago, after the panel votes). I was one of the originals in the stock prior to the IMPACT study, and speak of caution, not panic, due to experience.

I earned then lost my first small fortune in this stock. Lessons of protection are expensive ones... hope u do not have to experience it.

read the older DNDN articles, and come up with ur own conclusions via content... not via anonymity

(I do not submit articles... SA takes what they want, but my blog is far more trader oriented, via TA and indicators, versus content/opinion on a stock... and SA prefers the latter)

Why IMF Gold Sales Won't Affect the Gold Market

your ignoring the psychological aspect to this. Traders do not want to see one of the largest holders of gold to sell. Tradeers will sell gold as news of this comes out. If one of the largest gold holders is selling... what does that tell you? (If u do not know who the sucker is when playing poker... its u)

gold broke its 6month uptrend yesterday via its SMAs, and could not breached its previous highs. A negative set up has formed. I don't know how low its going to go because qualitative fundamentals in this metal is difficult due to its speculative nature, but short-term things do not look good.

Should the U.S. Lose Its AAA Rating?

Does it really matter what the rating is, w/respect to countries? (companies I understand the philosophy that some funds can only hold AAA because their money managers can not be bothered by doing any real homework)

When it comes to countries however, does an agencies rating really matter more then the power and might of a countries military? Or its stable political system? or its ability to handle commerce? Or, on a relative basis, as the economic engine?

Will a rating angency lowering its rating matter, when the system is at a low point, and the threat of social unrest is very real... where the safest place to put your money is in the strongest military might. the market player will simply not care about ratings, they care about safety/security.

I agree with the last statement... the market will price things accourdingly. But for now, they choose safety because the system was at a very real state of collapse, and when things (continue to) stabilize, we will see the treasuries yields rise, along with riskier assets. (if you want to define this rise in yields as the US lossing its AAA status so be it)

Why I'm Shorting Google

i see where ur getting at via the technicals. but unless this is a trade that will last a few days, do not take it.

1st... ur thesis is wrong. we do not know the breakup in ad dollars from financials and autos that is specific to goog. (On the web in general yes, but the general web does not correlate with ads that we can understand the ROI)

2nd... goog w/a 20.00 est 2009 eps (which represents zero growth from last year) would give the fastest growing company (whose innovation has not let up) a forward PE of 16. (16 for a stock that usually trades in the 20-30 range)

3rd... they can manipulate eps too well. they aready started putting ads on finance and other places I have not seen before. On top of this, their cost cutting does produce bottom line results. (they proved this last quarter.)

4th... if we are going to have a serious bear market rally (one that allows the SP500 to touch the 200sma), GOOG will retest 380 or even its weekly 50SMA.

simply put, this stock should not be in the 200s due to valuations, but it should not be in the well over 400 given the environment u argue.

Still Substantial Risk in Credit Card Investments

I understand your thesis, but your not quantifying the 'paper-to-electronic' payment change. We all know consumer spending will be down, and the market is not giving MA or V a free pass. They are currently trading at with a 2009 PE of 14-15. So I ask... if a PE of 14-15 too much of a premium for MA, that has beat (sorry... crushed) earnings expectations quarter after quarter.

They are able to do this because the social change of paper-to-electronic payment is extremely difficult to quantify.

I'm not saying MA is going to the moon, I'm just saying ur thesis needs to account for the social change. And your not doing this.

As for the charts, they are holding up very well. Get worried when MA breaks the 120 level. That is when the charts will indicate a fundamental issue not yet revealed.

Winners and Losers from Oil Contango

"...money pouring into oil ETFs from schmuck retail investors..."

they don't really seem like schmucks today. Why insult so many readers by calling them schmucks instead of providing a solution or alternative?

since I was in USO, u called me a schmuck (and the many others in the name)... yet ur simplified recommendation of buy oil stocks makes u the schmuck today. uso is +4%, while most oil stocks are +1 (w/the exception of PBR).

(anyway... i'm ready for the 10 thumbs down from the reads who don't think their schmucks because they agree with you)

I Doubt JP Morgan's Taking Realistic Marks on WaMu Purchase

you can depress a bride on her wedding :)

If the gov were to bring long-term mortgage rates to 4.5, and purchase treasuries wouldn't that flush out the foreclosures? Also, if the proper setting are in place, making it appealing for private capital to come in and take some of this paper off the books, wouldn't this help?

Twenty-Two Years of Job Creation Wiped Out in a Single Day

unfortunately, I am all too familiar with what it feels like to graduate during economic hardship.

I graduated, with honors with a science and engineering degree during the 2002 downturn. Took me 8 months to find a job, and i was greatful. The demoralizing factor did not inspire entrepreneurialism. I had to scrap around bartending/waiting tables for months.

ultimately, it made me a better person. forced my hand to understand the markets/economy and position myself to not be dependent on a 'job'.

In the long run charlie maybe right, many will learn or be forced to become risk tolerant enough to be an entrpreneur (as i sort of became), but in the short-run... the demoralizing selfpitty aspect of graduating with out a job sucks.

Apple and Google: Changing My Mind

I don't know if this is the best strategy, but it has worked for me very well...

i'm a chart guy, so i think i have a good understanding when an equity is really oversold. And when the oversold condition is near a price I am willing to pay for the stock, I sell the puts at a strike I am willing to buy the stock.

For instance with at the moment with GOOG, it is not oversold, and it is hitting the 85sma resistance.

once oversold sell ur puts (or its at a level ur willing to pay for the stock). I stick with short-term options when selling (to benefit from time decay), so I would use the March puts. Assume ur buy price of GOOG is 290. Sell the 280 March Puts. If a hedge is desired, sell the 330 March calls (or a strike your comfortable with, that will not exercise and can provide a hedge)

being a chartist I would (and have) purchased puts (330 march) today, as it reached the 85sma resistance, and when (if) it approaches the target price of 290 with an oversold condition, sell the 280 puts. (possibly keeping the purchased puts as a hedge to the sold puts)

(I primarily use my charts to dictate when to enter/exit, and utilize options based on my understanding of the charts. so i may not be giving the best option strategy via strike prices versus stock price.)

hope this helps

Why Aren't Stocks Falling?

Felix, imo, ur a good financial journalist, but have a poor grip on market dynamics. Looking back at the data recessionary conditions were present over a year ago. And guess what, the market went down before that data appropriately showed how bad things were. (ie a leading indicator)

The market is up 20% from its lows because we had stocks like GOOG at level not justifiable.

Whatever your thinking on the market technicals, leave it for the traders because your concept of the market is wrong. But keep being a journalist, imo ur really good at it.

What Corporate Yield Spreads Are Telling Us About Equities

like every indicator, traders have to know when they are applicable.