Echo To All

Hedge Funds Are Suffering Too

the growth of the hegde fund industry will not be what it was... the golden age (or rather the age of idiots/imitators) is over. The investment banking model of promoting and supporting hege funds is dead, especially with much needed and deserved tighter regulations on leverage coming very quickly.

Many of these guys I do not think will be able to raise serious institutional capital for a long long time.

Retail Sales Report: Do Facts Mean Nothing?

nice article.

Apple Investors: Fasten Your Seatbelts, Put On Helmets

why can't u just say ur shorting AAPL because it is a proxy to the markets?

instead u try to justify ur short by wordy arguments and connecting unconnectable dots... and the icing on the crappy cake is this statement... "traders know they can bring AAPL down to do their bidding, and so they will."

Can Apple Withstand the Financial Sector's Fall?

After reading the article I do not understand why your short AAPL? Is it based solely on the new iPod line? Is it because the Mac is taking too much market share? Is it because the iPhone 3G will mostlikely crush original expectations? Is it because AAPL is still a few steps a head of everyone? Is it because the new Macs have not be revealed yet? Is it because everything about the company is already known, despite their track record of beating those known expectations?

I don't get it. Now if u were to say u are short because the bad chart and negative market sentiment, then I understand. But to sell a short position due to the fundamentals of the company... well that is just crap.

Wake Up America, You’re Sinking

another feel good story, within a bear market, from what appears to be an elitist touting the grass is greener over 'there'. awesome.

I am an American that has his eyes open, and knows how to play the trends. I also travel to europe quite a bit, and see the realities over there too. Things are not good for the average person there.

Within America... how about we look a few short years out, and the consequence of having an far more independent energy structure? what would that mean? How much money would that equate to staying in the US? What would that do to the dollar?

every country has its problems.

Visa: Positioned for Strong International Growth

how is europe benefiting Visa? From V's 10-Q...

"Visa Europe did not become a subsidiary of Visa Inc., but rather remained owned by its member financial institutions and entered into a set of contractual arrangements with Visa Inc... Our relationship with Visa Europe is governed by a framework agreement providing for exclusive, perpetual, non-transferable trademark and technology licenses within Visa Europe’s field of use and the provision of certain bilateral services."

Is MasterCard Signaling Caution?

"the company managed to beat expectations primarily by cutting back on the marketing expenses for the quarter"

Some would consider this cost control, not weakness. But to each their own... i guess.

So when is cheap enough? No doubt multiple contraction is present, but when has it contracted enough?

I believe MA has beat every quarter, and now they will simply not going forward?

The US is a saturated market much more leveraged to economic growth when dealing with transactions, yet even in this horrible consumer environment there was still some transaction growth.

if anything, the fact that US transaction growth was even present in the horrible US consumer environment suggest the continued favorable paper-to-plastic trend.

I agree multiple contraction needed to occur, I just do not agree with ur reasoning.

Long Gold/Short Oil vs. Long Natural Gas/Short Oil

I see ur thesis, but oil was in a speculative move the past few months. I am under the impression that oil will come down harder than Gold and Nat Gas, but all three commodities will fall in the interm.

Slowing global economy and rising rates does not held Oil, Gold or Nat Gas. (unless one of them has a reason to diverge from the current economic situation)

The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing

I don't know if Oil was as severe of a bubble as you claim because we can not dismiss the fact that supply constraints existed, and demand was really high. There are also obvious macro economic effects that support an elevated Crude price. But, with that said, I was Short Oil via USO puts from 138-145 as the fundamentals drifted from the price of Oil.

Over the past few month we have been seeing a huge demand destruction, lack of physical buyers and emerging markets slowdown, yet Crude kept rising.

We will be able to call oil's awesome move a bubble if...

1. demand destruction continues
2. new supplies come on line to meet future growth demand
3. how quickly the US can adjust to alternative energy vehicles
4. geo-political threats ease

All of which will continue to create downward pressure to oil, and fortunately are in the cards, but we can't call oil tulips just yet.

Will Electric Power Cause the Next Price Shock?

I do agree, electricity generating commodities are still a good play, but...

1. You are completely discounting the effecient use of the grid via smartgrid tech/software.

2. Wind and Solar will be continuous power sources. The highest cost here is the cap ex needed to build them. And if solar is truly decentralized, then house holds/cars can pump power into the grid. (generating credits/money)

(i can go on and on about the positives, but i'll stop it at the most obvious and relevant.)

The one thing i will say, even though i disagree somewhat with your economics, your article inadvertantly highlights the massive importance of the powr grid going forward.

More on Technical Analysis

"everything in technical analysis seems to work backwards"

true, but your ignoring principals surrounding the historical data. Your ignoring the value in that data. We can not ignore the importance of regression analysis and Six Sigma simply because these principals primarily use historical data.

Technical analysis, when used correctly, is unbelieveably valuable. Markets change, so how u use technical analysis must change as well. Just like Quant models must change with market conditions to be truly effective. (if you can not understand this, you will not understand the principals of TA, hence u will continue to bash it.)

Stocks have no memory, but the prinipals of human behavior do. Markets are driven by people, and people have psychologies. The psychologies are driven by patterns, logical principals (ie scientific) and/or unknowing principals (ie the 'golden ratio' being so important far reaching applications of life, in engineering/science and markets).

anything exposed to a market has a behavior because of the human element driving the market entity, and TA facilitates in understanding that behavior. ignoring it is careless.

in any case... it works for me, and i list the trades (with charts) on my blog to back up the value in TA.

JP Morgan Offer for Wachovia Makes Sense

these rumors were flying for a few months, and now it is getting a lot more attention. but WB has been an acquirer over the years, hence do not see them being bought out. also, if JPM is primarily looking for retail operations in the SE, WB has a lot of other businesses JPM would need to divest. (the deal would seen complicated and costly)

i think jpm needs to stick to a smaller player focused in the SE. (i'm actually waiting for this rumor to be squashed so I can buy jpm... i don't want them to buy WB just yet due to the Gold West mortgage exposure. Don't know if those problems are out of WB yet.)

Quanta Services: Piggybacking on the Alternative Energy Boom

good luck with that short, but a bit more understanding to the entire AE boom on your part is needed. AE will encompass a LOT of things. Most importantly, before it can become a reality within the US, the Power Grid needs to get upgraded to handle the extra load.

Then, the Smart Grid will be build. I am not going to spoon feed u the info, but I do suggest you do a LOT more homework as you are short the only pure play to a company very instrumental (in the begining part of the tail) to the AE/smart grid boom.

Currently its a overbought and may need to consolidate some, but that is only technical.

Credit Cards: The Next Subprime?

come on Grace... everyone working on the street knows debt from credit cards are higher risk, and understand that risk far better than they did subprime debt. Meaning, they will be taking these delinquencies into account.

not that I even have to spell it out for you (as i am sure u already know), but the difference between credit card debt and subprime debt is that a grossly incorrect assumption to risk was placed on subprime.

investors know very well in times of economic slowdown credit cards delinquencies go up. (especially when the consumer is squeezed with a higher cost of basic goods.)

so no... its not the next subprime, its just the normal increase in delinquencies from an economic slow down. Pending how severe the slow down and real inflation (not gov. reported inflation) stays high, prudent assumptions should be the delinquency rate goes higher.

Gas Is Actually a Bargain at $3.56

Graybeard... thanks for the info regarding the trading. But the argument can become a 'chicken or the egg'... currently i completely agree with what u stated. tax policy plays a huge role, but back in the day when the highway infrastructure was being built, I seriously doubt our tax policy played any role. The US had the objective to have automobile centered cities, and interconnecting highways which naturally promoted greater driving habbits.

Most other cities around the world, primarily europe are not centered around the automobile. Hence promote less driving. (This is why there is so much congenstion in london, paris, athens etc and they must have added tax, on top of the huge gas tax, to prevent traffic.)