Echo To All

Is It Possible the Current Recession Was Caused by Oil Prices, Not Housing?

"his hypothetical case is remarkably similar to the actual path" -how does he define the hypothetical case?

This argument is truly very hard to believe... but then again, anything can be made true so long as you define everything properly. That's how we got into the financial mess... ignore the obvious truths, and use skewed data to tell you what you want to hear.

Winners and Losers from Oil Contango

"...money pouring into oil ETFs from schmuck retail investors..."

they don't really seem like schmucks today. Why insult so many readers by calling them schmucks instead of providing a solution or alternative?

since I was in USO, u called me a schmuck (and the many others in the name)... yet ur simplified recommendation of buy oil stocks makes u the schmuck today. uso is +4%, while most oil stocks are +1 (w/the exception of PBR).

(anyway... i'm ready for the 10 thumbs down from the reads who don't think their schmucks because they agree with you)

Global Financial Crisis Makes Oil a Great Hedge

I disagree. Peak oil is real, and so long as usage outstrips supply (or is close to it) oil will remain high.

We have entered a pretty bad economic step, yet oil is still trading above 80. There is a reason for the high price. Previous down turns would have brought crude to the 20s. The fact that oil is remaining high, in a real global crisis, is no accident.

I would be very careful shorting oil here (and i had no problem shorting oil in the high 130s/140s due to anticipation of the current hick up we are now in).

Peak oil is real, and the only thing that will merit lower usage of oil is when alternatives are truly being used. Right now they are not. (wind, solar, nuclear... all for electric generation. crude is not used for electric generation, and the battery powered car will not make a dent in the use of oil for at least 5-10yrs.)

I would be cautious shorting crude here.

Long Gold/Short Oil vs. Long Natural Gas/Short Oil

I see ur thesis, but oil was in a speculative move the past few months. I am under the impression that oil will come down harder than Gold and Nat Gas, but all three commodities will fall in the interm.

Slowing global economy and rising rates does not held Oil, Gold or Nat Gas. (unless one of them has a reason to diverge from the current economic situation)

The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing

I don't know if Oil was as severe of a bubble as you claim because we can not dismiss the fact that supply constraints existed, and demand was really high. There are also obvious macro economic effects that support an elevated Crude price. But, with that said, I was Short Oil via USO puts from 138-145 as the fundamentals drifted from the price of Oil.

Over the past few month we have been seeing a huge demand destruction, lack of physical buyers and emerging markets slowdown, yet Crude kept rising.

We will be able to call oil's awesome move a bubble if...

1. demand destruction continues
2. new supplies come on line to meet future growth demand
3. how quickly the US can adjust to alternative energy vehicles
4. geo-political threats ease

All of which will continue to create downward pressure to oil, and fortunately are in the cards, but we can't call oil tulips just yet.