Echo To All

What Corporate Yield Spreads Are Telling Us About Equities

like every indicator, traders have to know when they are applicable.

Can You See Apple Under $60?

a lot of the new negativity for the stock market is coming via the CDS spreads.

and the CDS spreads are saying BRKA has more of a chance of going bankrupt vs MS. this very observation is, imo, a clear indication the CDS market is too easily manipulated, and can not be trusted. But when u see BRKA achieving such spreads, the CDS market is simply wrong or manipulated to achieve a perception.

if u r lucky enough to see apple at 60, it will be there for literally a second before major major buying takes place, seeing how it will be trading half its cash value. probably ending back at 80 within days.

The Calm Before the Storm?

or maybe the markets are just waiting for monday. If the deal does not pass the equity market will collapse.

the market was speaking last week, as it moved in the direction of political mood. It was up when their was confidence in the deal to get done, and futures tanked when talks broke down.

I do not want a bs deal to go through, but the markets want something. We don't get a deal before market opens monday, the market stops waiting to pick a direction... it will choose down... big time.

Wake Up America, You’re Sinking

another feel good story, within a bear market, from what appears to be an elitist touting the grass is greener over 'there'. awesome.

I am an American that has his eyes open, and knows how to play the trends. I also travel to europe quite a bit, and see the realities over there too. Things are not good for the average person there.

Within America... how about we look a few short years out, and the consequence of having an far more independent energy structure? what would that mean? How much money would that equate to staying in the US? What would that do to the dollar?

every country has its problems.

The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing

I don't know if Oil was as severe of a bubble as you claim because we can not dismiss the fact that supply constraints existed, and demand was really high. There are also obvious macro economic effects that support an elevated Crude price. But, with that said, I was Short Oil via USO puts from 138-145 as the fundamentals drifted from the price of Oil.

Over the past few month we have been seeing a huge demand destruction, lack of physical buyers and emerging markets slowdown, yet Crude kept rising.

We will be able to call oil's awesome move a bubble if...

1. demand destruction continues
2. new supplies come on line to meet future growth demand
3. how quickly the US can adjust to alternative energy vehicles
4. geo-political threats ease

All of which will continue to create downward pressure to oil, and fortunately are in the cards, but we can't call oil tulips just yet.

Interpret a Stagnant VIX As You Will

currently, the vix is representing the longer-term bearishness of the overall market... no spikes in a down market is not good in general. (at least that is what my obervation with the vix has told me over the 2yrs correlating it with the market day to day.)

doesn't mean we go down tomorrow, but we just haven't seen a bottom yet.