Echo To All

Why I'm Not Buying Allegheny Technologies, Titanium Metals, or RTI International Metals, Just Yet

i don't know Trader Mark, I am a trader (and am playing TIE) and can not get excited again until it breaks 32 or so, but when I see multi-million dollar insider purchases while TIE is 'broken' by insiders... it makes me pay attention. Maybe the market is having one of its 'inefficiency' moments. Hence deducing future fundamental performance via current stock price is wrong. just a thought.

Titanium Metals Is Going Down

but the markets are not in a bubble. air travel has nothing to do with the credit markets. increased demand in air travel is due to more wealth in the world (which we have). global growth should continue which means a hell of a lot more people in india, china and developing nations (not to mention in the US) will be flying requires more planes, hence more are built. (how they are built and the financing for them being built is a separate issue... they will still need to be built due to the demand.)

IMO the market in general are over exended technically, in fact i shorted the market this morning for the short downward consolidation and TIE should go down with it. Seeing how it is a volatile stock the downward move maybe more exaggerated.

Also, in regards to Management buying. Harold Simmons made billions toward his beliefs, so if there is a belief there I will pay attention. But he is not the only one buying, multiple upper management is aswell.

Revenue is not growing faster because TIE runs at a 95% capacity, and the new capacity is not fully on line yet to increase revenue. There are only a few players in the space, and few high quality TI plays.

And be very careful using the term inventory. The raw material inventory DECLINED from 12/31/06 to 06/2007. Work-in-process inventory increased.

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Titanium Metals Is Going Down

I share part of you concern, especially due to the chart... posted this on my blog a few days ago

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A few things though... revenue is hostage to capacity capabilities and pricing. back log is at a billion (consistent from last 2 quarters). reduced margins due to increase supply and wider use, but earnings growth is what we really care about. For the last few months there has been consistent insider purchases

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I can not really say these are BS purchases as they add up to a few million dollars worth. what do they see or know?