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  • Seismic Services and the Price of Oil [View article]
    Yes, I believe this sector will stay busy 2011 onwards. Seismic is a sector often overlooked by the investing community, probably due to its very technical nature. Hope this article will provide some insight into this very facinating segment of the oil and gas industry. Greatly appreciate your comment here.

    On Jul 28 08:12 AM Youri Carma wrote:

    > Happen to meet a guy regularly who works at a Dutch compagny doing
    > this seismic groundwork. He said they have loads of work and he travels
    > all over the world laying out these seismic sensors.
    > I think that's because a lot of countries want to know what their
    > natural "assets" are in a time when assets are desperately needed.
    > I quess this sector will profit from that.
    Jul 28 09:32 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bonds: Dropping Real Yields Indicate Inflation on Horizon [View article]
    Essentially, the Fed is experimenting on what drives inflation: the money supply or the output gap, and is betting on the economic contraction would keep inflation low. However, the core US PPI rose 0.5% from May, the biggest rise since October 2008, while the core US CPI was up 1.7% Y/Y. So, it looks like the liquidity the Fed has injected could begin to pose an inflationary threat unless the FOMC pares it down and raises interest rates.

    More realistically, the Fed will likely be slow to soak up the liquidity, in part because of the still- high unemployment. The U.S. is still in the early stages of recovery, so we've got a lot of reflation ahead of us, and ultimately could end with double-digit inflation.
    Jul 27 07:11 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seismic Services and the Price of Oil [View article]
    The seismic equipment sector is dominated by CGV and IO. SLB also has a presence, and there are a dozen other companies as well. The equipment sector is largely dependent upon the seismic activity, and price of oil. So, CGV and SLB will be safer than the other small pure players, if you are looking to add seismic equipment holdings to your portfolio.
    Your comment is greatly appreciated.

    On Jul 27 11:28 AM Gary Holdsworth wrote:

    > Could also add to your list of impacted stocks seismic equipment
    > providers such as IO, BOLT, and OYOG.
    Jul 27 01:39 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seismic Services and the Price of Oil [View article]
    I only used the US EIA graph to illustrate the general forecasts of oil. I see oil in trading range of $50 to $75 to 2010 or 2011, assuming no geopolical "crises" and excessive artificial manipulations. Of course, oil markets, as we all know, are extremely volatile. It is hard to really predict, but based on what I see today, $50-$75 seems reasonable at the moment.
    Jul 27 08:15 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yale's Shiller Still Glum on the Economy, Housing [View article]
    No economies can stage a meaningful recovery without the backing of a healthy financial and housing market. Though there are some positive indications on the residential housing, commercial real estate is the next front in the financial crisis after the collapse of the housing market. The financial sector right now is artificially "pumped" by bailouts and the need for serious reform and restructure remains.

    Although S&P index earnings topped the average of analysts’ predictions, sales growth lagged behind profits as companies "shrink" to stay profitable through aggessive cost cutting measure. The divergence between earnings and revenues is another sign that the economy is still weak and not roaring back.
    Jul 25 09:40 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in the Pickens Plan, One Year Later [View article]
    This article was included as part of Pickens Plan media coverage 7/3-7/9/09
    Here is the Reuters link for this article
    Jul 23 02:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hydrogen the Best of the Green Fuels? [View article]
    This article is included as part of Pickens Plan Media Coverage 7/18-7/2009
    Jul 23 02:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 11 U.S. Oil Drilling Companies to Invest in [View article]
    Significant reduction in new project sanctions in 2009 relative to 2008 will likely affect demand possbily through 2013. Jackups and semisubs of <4,000 ft. sectors are particularly at risk of oversupply, thus lower dayrates. In addition, North Sea, and possibly Austrilia/Asia are two regions that could experience weakness in E&P activity, so dayrates are expected to be flat to lower as well. Deepwater activity has been holding up a lot better than that of onshore. So, offshore drillers are more likely to have stronger performance than onshore-cetric drillers. Among offshore drillers, depending on fleet makeup and global region coverage, companies with larger deepwater fleet should perform better than peers with mostly shallow water fleet.
    Jul 22 02:32 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Recession off the Menu for 2010 [View article]
    The current "rally" is artificial partly from government handouts and partly from overreactions of investors fearing the worst. For example, both UK and US are still expecting higher unemployment rates (8%ish in the US for the next 2-3 years) even with "raise GDP forecasts". Consumer spending drive 70% of the US GDP. HIgher unemployement = lower consumer spending = lower GDP. The current loose QE will not last forever. The statement, Global Recession is Off the Menu for 2010, sounds a bit prematurely optimistic from where we stand right now.
    Jul 22 09:25 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Hydrogen the Best of the Green Fuels? [View article]
    This article has been picked up by Reuters:
    Jul 20 01:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $20 Oil by Year's End? [View article]
    40% drop in E&P capex this year does not translate into $20 oil ever due to the long project time frame for most oil E&P projects (about 4 years, at least). We do have a temporary oversupply situation right now, but as global economy slowly recovers, this overhang will get worked off, and we may see the oil market tightening again.
    Jul 19 09:40 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing in the Pickens Plan, One Year Later [View article]
    This article is also on Reuters
    Jul 14 12:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen's Stagnation View: A Real Possibility? [View article]
    See this article on USA Today web stie:
    Jul 14 12:42 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yellen's Stagnation View: A Real Possibility? [View article]
    There are indications that China may halt their stock piling on commodities as they are getting pricey. This will likely drive the commodity prices back down, as there are no visible demand recoveries anywhere else in the world. Of course, when the prices are low enough, China may start buying and prices would go up again. So, you might see this pattern repeating, but it is in no way a "sustained upward pressure".

    The recent run-up in the commodities is mainly techinical and seasonal based, not on market fundamentals. China/BRIC and traders can not drive the commodities forever. The 2nd half is traditionally the weaker part of year for commodities. We are already seeing oil prices dropping back to $60/b, which is just one example.

    In addition, much of the emerging economies' growth is still largely dependent upon developed countries like the U.S. If U.S., still the largest economy in the world, is not buying or investing as much due to factors outlined in my article, developing economies will likely be negatively impacted as well since it is a global economy.

    Bottom line: There has to be a recovery from developed as well as developing countries to sustain a true global market recovery.

    On Jul 13 10:22 AM TradingHelpDesk wrote:

    > Very interesting thank you. Is it possible that the US can stay in
    > a deflationary environment when there is likely to be sustained upward
    > pressure on commodities due to Asian growth.
    > GDP predictions for 2009: China 7.5%. India 5.4%. Middle East 2.0%.
    > Also a likely return to 2.5% global growth in 2010. (IMF predictions).
    > How can the US suffer deflation in that environment? I am not questioning
    > your obvious expertise, but there is a global economy to consider,
    > not just a US one.
    Jul 13 10:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Future of Transportation Fuel Is Hydrogen [View instapost]
    Currently, the U.S. and most of the world is in what would be called the fossil fuel economy. The majority of our power source is from oil, natural gas, coal, and petroleum products. We need energy to keep our world and society running; however, fossil fuel energy also creates problems such as pollution, climate change and imported oil dependence.
    In a pure hydrogen economy, the hydrogen must be derived from renewable sources rather than fossil fuels so that we stop releasing carbon into the atmosphere. The scenario described here is a mixed one where all energy sources coexist to produce a single form of fuel. This mixed system has the benefit of reducing not only pollution, but also greenhouse gas and oil dependence. In addition, we will have a more distributed production network since hydrogen can be produced anywhere that you have electricity and water.
    However, generating enough electricity without using more fossil fuels to produce hydrogen will be a challenge. Another big question, similar to that of the CNG (compressed natural gas) as described in my article- “Investing in the Pickens Plan, One Year Later”, is the transporting, distributing and storing infrastructure. Once both of these questions are answered in an economical way, the mixed hydrogen economy should theoretically be in place.
    Jul 12 05:48 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment