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  • The Unthinkable: U.S. Stripped of AAA Credit Rating by Chinese Agency [View article]
    I read somewhere the EU is quite miffed with the big 3 consistently downgrade them right before bond sale and that they are going to either sponsor own rating services or something to shift away.
    There is also this issue with the big 3 downgrade often times right in trading hours distressing trading position already in place. Corporations typically do that off hours.
    Jul 13 11:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unthinkable: U.S. Stripped of AAA Credit Rating by Chinese Agency [View article]
    I forgot to include a hyperlink on the graph.
    Here is the link from visualeconomics www.visualeconomics.co...
    for your reference. The graph might or might not be as current; nevertheless illustrates the point that the U.S. debt level is quite alarming.
    Jul 13 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ferguson, Roubini vs. Krugman: U.S. Slowdown or Depression? [View article]
    China practically spent all its stim to build out excess infrastructure just to ward off a recession, and has caught lots of flak from China bears. But I believe Beijing knows what it's doing--building for the future.
    IF this time around, the U.S. has better spending plan focusing on job creation and some of the much needed infrastructure, then the deficit spending could be worth it. Sadly, reality isn't always so.
    Jun 30 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will BP Go Bust? [View article]
    It is common practice for oil majors to be self insured. There's is a pool of fund covering losses of contributing member companies.

    The industry is extremely vigilant on safety training, even for employees who will never set foot in the field. This is a freak accident that BP will be paying for a long time in the form of money and a very tarnished reputation.

    But in reality, the cleanup costs even if without insurance or cap, BP could make back in a year or two. People over-react and underestimate BP just like they did with XOM's Valdez. XOM came roaring back from Valdez. BP will be hurt for sure, but going bust is highly unlikely.
    Jun 3 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities: Go Long and Physical [View article]
    Several OPEC members indicated they prefer oil price in the range of $70 to $80. So, yes, if crude stays below $70 long enough, DEFCON will likely go up on OPEC.
    Jun 3 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Shale Shocked in America [View article]
    Natgas storage still increased to 2,165 bcf as of May 14, and were 73 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 308 Bcf above the 5-year average of 1,857 Bcf.
    EIA also reported Baker Hughes horizontal gas rigs reached 2½ -year high mainly from Marcellus and Haynesville plays.
    So, the overall supply/demand balance does not look bullish enough for natty to go above $5 in the near term.
    May 21 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Shale Shocked in America [View article]
    My understanding is that Canadian natural gas producers typically have higher cost base when compared with the U.S. players primarily due to transportation costs. Hence you see many Canadian producers aggressive in accumulating acreage in the U.S. shales.
    May 21 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Shale Shocked in America [View article]
    Refer to onshore section of my earlier article covering the service sector seekingalpha.com/artic....
    The component companies within the OSX is another good starting point as well.
    May 20 03:40 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Shale Shocked in America [View article]
    Most producers seem to say their shale projects are profitable at $4 gas price. So, the $4 to $6 is still a workable range.
    May 20 10:18 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fear Premium of Gold [View article]
    In case I had some impatient readers at the sentence "according Jon Nadler", I subsequently rebuffed Mr. Nadler's $800 prediction by outlining the "fear factors" supporting gold long term. However, I do expect gold to experience pullbacks while seesawing up in the near to medium term. Dow dropped 1,000 points in 5 minutes due to some hedging strategy by a fund manager, who's there to say the same will not pop up in the gold markets? Thanks for the comment.
    May 15 04:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fear Premium of Gold [View article]
    I typically write about market sectors that I'm not currently in to maintain objectivity. Thanks for the comment.
    May 15 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fear Premium of Gold [View article]
    Is this not what I said--"fiat currencies debase" as one of the fear factors driving investors to gold? Distrust/fear of fiat currencies bidding up gold prices, thus adding a "fear premium" to gold. Thanks for commenting.
    May 15 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Flash Crash a Result of 'Fat Fingers' or 'Sell in May'? [View article]
    It'd seem I was not far off -- from Reuters: money manager Waddell & Reed Financial Inc named as e-mini 'flash crash' seller ht.ly/1LdQd
    May 14 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: A Tale of Three Swan Songs [View article]
    I looked at different reserve currency alternatives in my Mar. 3 article:"Chinese Yuan v U.S. Dollar: In the Case of Global Reserve Currency". Alternative currency scenarios do not appear plausible in the medium term.
    Mar 26 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do the Chinese Save So Much? A Different Explanation [View article]
    It was a published paper that merits discussion. My view is summarized in the last 4 paragraphs of the article. Spending and Savings are two sides of the deficit/surplus equation and equal consideation.
    Mar 25 10:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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