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  • U.S. To Reach Real Debt Limit In March (Or June) 2014 [View article]
    Thanks for reading, and no, we don't have that trillion dollar platinum coin yet in the U.S. The concept was floated as a way to get around the borrowing limit due to certain language in a 1997 law. More detail here:

    Many talked about it, but last I heard both the Treasury and the Fed have shut down that idea.
    Nov 21, 2013. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Natural Gas Replaces Diesel In Frack Jobs [View article]
    (1) land-lucked = no export = no emerging country demand to boost price = low price .... got it?

    (2) Coal prices are getting competitive with natgas. EIA Jan. 2013 STEO forecast "Higher natural gas prices, coupled with slightly higher electricity demand, will lead to an increase in coal‐fired generation."
    Jan 15, 2013. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Sovereign Debt Crisis Comes Deleveraging [View article]
    US and Japan are in Credit Counseling. Japan's budget has a high dependency on debt, US is getting there.
    Jun 27, 2012. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Crisis, Deficit Spending And The Coming New World Order [View article]
    Countries still have to be able to service its debt either by using its income or by raising more cash through debt or other means. When it gets over-extended and lives beyond its means long enough, credit gets cut off or becomes so expensive that one no longer can afford, sovereign debt crisis ensues.

    Greece can't no longer borrow from creditors and is bankrupt. Argentine had to default on part of its debt in 2002 and is still reeling from that economic crisis. Being a monetary sovereign does not mean one can continue to spend without worrying about balancing budget and living within means.
    Jun 25, 2012. 10:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil And Petrobras: Oil Potential Or Oil Dream? [View article]
    PBR is definitely a long-term, and more volatile (taking into account the currency, etc.) play.
    Jun 11, 2012. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Brazil And Petrobras: Oil Potential Or Oil Dream? [View article]
    BNDES (Brazilian Development Bank) and MMF (Merchant Marine Fund) are working together to provide friendly long term financing scheme. There are also local industry development, supported by PROMINP and ONIP, which could make more Brazilian made equipment available in the future. However, I'm not aware of significant structured long-term effort by the government to address the education and infrastructure systems.
    Jun 11, 2012. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook IPO: Once Again, Wall Street Wins And Muppets Lose [View article]
    Bernstein went on bberg giving FB underperform with a $25 target. While we are not as optimistic price-wise, we do agree with Bernstein that "It is difficult to argue for owning the stock today."
    Jun 4, 2012. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect A Global Recession No Matters What Happens In The Eurozone [View article]
    Thanks, I forgot to include links to the NYT original charts and report in my post. NYT full report
    and Here is the NYT interactive charts

    I think the NYT chart might not have everything but serves as a visual reminder as to how interconnected the global economies and systems are.

    US debt situation is alarming, but the country has one thing going for them - US dollar (and treasurys) is and will be the dominant reserve currency in the foreseeable future. So I personally don't see a crisis for the U.S. like the current euro sovereign debt implosion, but do see interest rate eventually will go up, which would increase the interest payment. I also think it would be best for the U.S. policymakers to focus on GDP Growth first vs. reining in fiscal responsibility in the middle of a possible double dip.
    Nov 21, 2011. 10:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: What Not To Wear At The High Stake Tech Party [View article]
    If you read carefully, I did not recommend Blockbuster and have no position either as Blockbuster has its own problem which landed the company in its current state to begin with.
    That being said, whenever a company such as Netflix did something to infuriate and alienate its subscriber base, it naturally opens the door for competitors. Blockbuster is the closest alternative that angry customers would go to.
    Oct 10, 2011. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LNG Export: A U.S. Natural Gas Game Changer? [View article]
    The German cabinet agreed on Monday to plans for the nation to phase out nuclear energy by 2022.
    Jun 6, 2011. 08:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Get Ready for Another 'Sell in May and Go Away' Year [View article]
    Go long bonds "during the big down days". May it be just temporary, but when there's a massive asset deflate, people will go to U.S. dollar and bond.
    Apr 17, 2011. 06:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Libyan Oil Offline Indefinitely Just a Red Herring [View article]
    News flash:
    (April 7, 2011) US crude supplies have risen in 10 of the past 11 weeks, reached 357.7mm bbl, gasoline demand down 1.2% yoy

    We don't even know how much is sitting on the Brent side as there's no regular inventory report.

    So, obviously, 'Peak Oil' is not here and now! Not to mention China is raising fuel prices as well as interest rate.

    Right now, demand / supply cannot account for the oil price keeps going up, and I would like to see anyone point to anything other than speculation (and excess liqudity from QE2) that's driving the crude, and other commodity markets.
    Apr 7, 2011. 07:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Market Speculation Argument to Be Tested by WTI Rollover Cycle [View article]
    Copy and paste below is my response to a similar comment at Zero Hedge ((link h/t Charles Mackay):
    [According to FACTBOX from the Reuters], Cushing storage "capacity" is around 52,000 million barrels; however, (excerpted from the same Reuters link)

    "Actual usable storage capacity is estimated to be approximately 80 percent of shell capacity due to operational and safety constraints"

    52mm bbl x 80% = 42mm bbl, so it may even be less than the 44mm bbl I quoted from a CNBC special interview at Cushing.

    My additional comment below:
    Your conclusion about inventory not correlating with oil price in 2008, and other times, exactly proves my argument that speculation drove up the oil price to peak at $147 then, and is doing it now again. (Thanks, by the way)

    Here and now - plenty of supplies with U.S. storage maxing out, another 2 million barrel build just last week, and negative demand growth yoy, and yet crude prices are still moving up, spotlight will be on speculators.

    Although many have concluded that trading activities have very little effect on oil market, but after you eliminate the demand and supply factors, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the answer.
    Apr 7, 2011. 03:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Consumers Have Big Banks to Blame for High Gas Prices [View article]
    As Fxmaven said
    "This would be very difficult to do but would make a great PhD Finance thesis for somebody from Stanford or MIT."

    Mainstream media reports only major banks analysts feed them, and they are long oil. so you don't hear much.

    Check out my analysis about WTI on SA. Traders took deliveries at last rollover (btw, typically big boys can do this), but unlikely to do so in the next rollover since Cushing is litereally maxed out.
    Apr 4, 2011. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Consumers Have Big Banks to Blame for High Gas Prices [View article]
    By the way,
    No Fly Zone Succeeds: Libyan Rebels To Sell First Oil Cargo
    Apr 4, 2011. 08:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment