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  • TIPS Yields Signal New Inflation Concern [View article]
    Thanks for your feedback. Your readership is much appreciated. What I meant, and as stated in my article, was that in this unprecedented most synchronized global recession cycle, wealth & capital will be redistributed from develped coutries to developing countries. This transition will put governments in the West in a dilemma handling the resulted social and economic impact, as there's no precedent to draw experience from.

    On Jun 15 06:32 AM Clive Corcoran wrote:

    > Interesting article but you lost me in the last sentence - what exactly
    > is the capital and wealth allocation dilemma?
    Jun 15 11:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TIPS Yields Signal New Inflation Concern [View article]
    Thanks for your feedback.
    You are correct that the TIPS spread of 2+% representing the market's infllation expectation. However, in my opinion and as pointed out in my article, it is grossly underestimated. Investors should be prepared for the coming inflation, which, quite possibly could reach double-digit in 5 years or so, in my view. Thanks.

    On Jun 15 09:00 AM No Free Cake wrote:

    > Surely the 2% inflation indicated by TIPS/Nominal spreads should
    > be read as a sign of low inflation expectations - not high inflation.
    > The recent change in the spread to this higher 2% (from nothing)
    > is simply the restoration of more typical nominal treasury yields
    > after the panic flight into them last fall.
    > To me, this change doesn't indicate anything other than TIPS and
    > Treasury bond buyers are expecting low inflation and a weak economy
    > for some time.
    Jun 15 10:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Copper in 2011: A Beijing Opera [View article]
    That's why my conclusion that copper would be hard-pressed to top $5 a pound in 2011 primarily because I see a potential significant slowdown in China this and next year.

    But with so much liqudity slushing around, stranger things could happen including a $5.50 copper price without much fundamental. .
    Jan 3 05:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: The Clock Is Ticking [View article]
    From what I understand, the study only looked at a completely replacing oil scenario, which it concluded would 131 years given the current pace of R&D.
    Alternative fuels of course will erode oil market share over time, but that is not what the study was looking at. And based on many other studies, oil will remain the main energy source in the foreseeable future, albeit with decreasing market share. .
    Nov 14 02:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. and China Play the Currency Kabuki [View article]
    Not sure what you mean....
    In my previous post, which I referenced in this article (link below), I outlined several major risks for China--employment, exports, and reserve value--if Beijing were to allow yuan rise rapidly as the U.S. would like.

    My point is that a yuan appreciation would hurt China, while the U.S. is unlikely to gain as much benefit as preached or perceived. So, it is quite futile for the US to press on, risking trade war and alienating Beijing.

    Even though yuan revaluation could potentially decrease Chinese company's cost base, the reduced exports could mean job loss. Civil unrest would be a risk that China will not take, cue to how Mao gained power from KMT.

    Estimate-wise, the Economist cited several studies suggesting that "China’s exports would fall by about 1.5% when its trade-weighted exchange rate, adjusted for inflation, strengthens by 1%."
    Sep 21 06:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Faber and Schiff on the American Bond Bubble [View article]
    I believe developing countries most likely will provide better upside vs. the industrialized nations. I also like commodities, of course, they are linked to developing regions' demand growth. And like Mr. Schiff said, some foreign government bonds could be worth a look as well. Many ETFs and mutual funds provide convenient vehicles for retail investors.
    Aug 26 11:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China: Investing in the U.S. After Unocal [View article]
    Yes, it was a typo on my part, thanks for letting me know. SA editors have been alerted.
    Meanwhile, if anyone is reading this post before the correction, the bullet point should read as follows:

    "• In May of this year, Hopu Investment Management Co., a Chinese private equity firm, invested about $100 million for around 1% stake in Chesapeake Energy (CHK)."
    Aug 22 02:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unthinkable: U.S. Stripped of AAA Credit Rating by Chinese Agency [View article]
    I forgot to include a hyperlink on the graph.
    Here is the link from visualeconomics
    for your reference. The graph might or might not be as current; nevertheless illustrates the point that the U.S. debt level is quite alarming.
    Jul 13 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ferguson, Roubini vs. Krugman: U.S. Slowdown or Depression? [View article]
    China practically spent all its stim to build out excess infrastructure just to ward off a recession, and has caught lots of flak from China bears. But I believe Beijing knows what it's doing--building for the future.
    IF this time around, the U.S. has better spending plan focusing on job creation and some of the much needed infrastructure, then the deficit spending could be worth it. Sadly, reality isn't always so.
    Jun 30 10:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fear Premium of Gold [View article]
    Is this not what I said--"fiat currencies debase" as one of the fear factors driving investors to gold? Distrust/fear of fiat currencies bidding up gold prices, thus adding a "fear premium" to gold. Thanks for commenting.
    May 15 03:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Outlook for Oil: When Contango Trade Unwinds [View article]
    If you click on blog link in MY Zero Hedge artile: Economic Forecasts & Opinions, you will be directed to my blog site.
    Yes, I'm asiablues on zero hedge. Thanks for your readership.
    Jan 19 03:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Has Spiked 60% Since Labor Day. Why? [View article]
    There is typically more than one side of any story. I presented my view via this article for people to ponder upon.
    Thanks for your comment. Hope to see you here often.

    On Sep 14 04:21 PM ETETET wrote:

    > Dian, Thanks for the contrarian view.
    Sep 14 05:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas Has Spiked 60% Since Labor Day. Why? [View article]
    Thank you. Looking forward to your comments and feedback.

    On Sep 14 07:41 AM H. T. Love wrote:

    > Dian,
    > Regardless of others thoughts, your article plugged a couple holes
    > in my knowledge about why we saw this rally in prices recently.<br/>
    > And I just asked those questions this A.M.
    > The OFO's I was already on-board with. Also be aware that several
    > of the major pipelines are performaing the mtce. you mention at this
    > time. So that will aggravate the situation that any volume-induced
    > OFOs might induce.
    > Thanks for the article!
    > HardToLove
    Sep 14 05:36 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will This Gold Rush Continue? [View article]
    I recommended $FCX & $NG due to the fact that their copper mining op offsetting gold opex. In addition, copper is a base metal trending with different market factors from precious metals, so for investors wanting to get into gold, these 2 miners should give the upside with less risk than pure gold miners or the physical market. I also like unhedged miners, thus the $JAG mention.
    Thanks for your comment.

    On Sep 11 07:26 AM Boot wrote:

    > I liked the how you developed your argument about gold rising, and
    > the market drivers involved. You lost me on the recs thought. I think
    > that's another article for another day. Explorers, Producers, Established
    > Producers all have positive and negative influences that deserve
    > well thought out arguments. It is a mine field out there, one need
    > to navigate carefully.
    Sep 11 07:39 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil and Natural Gas: Ratio Explodes in 2009 [View article]
    The ratio tightening discussed in the article is based on my view of the global (and U.S.) economic stagnation scenario (low/no growth) in 2010, and ramp-up from 2011 onwards. Based on this, dollar, natgas, oil, etc. should resume the historical correlation/ratio pattern.
    If you are looking at just 2010 or even 2011 timeline, then no, natgas prices are not going to take off to $6-8/mmbtu. That's why I recommended the investment options for long term investors.
    Thanks for your comment.

    On Aug 28 01:11 AM William M. Wright wrote:

    > Many agree Oil is the logical pull-back price. Market economic forces
    > are working on NG but not Oil. Yes, the dollar weakness is the killer.
    > But they need to raise margin requirements.
    > Margin requirements on oil need to be closer to stocks requirements.
    > Recall when the news blamed one trader using margin responsible for
    > pushing Oil over $72, as the trade was unwound the price of oil declined
    > for weeks? Remember? Now were right back to pushing Oil to $75. Yes,
    > Oils inverse correlation to the dollar is the reason you have to
    > toss out the old ratios. Sure the ratio was smaller in the 90's because
    > the dollar was climbing. Looking at the statistics you can see the
    > ratio changing back in 2003.
    > Now here is food for thought to show you how times change. Look at
    > the price of NG back in 2002-2003. Now look at the price of DVN,
    > APC or APA back then -I know I owned DVN and no one wanted to be
    > these stocks back then but now everyone's looking to buy them on
    > pull backs even though the price of NG has fall all year long and
    > the storage tanks are full.
    Aug 28 07:43 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment