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  • A Financial Reform Wish: End All Support for Housing Market [View article]
    Manya05,
    Yes, of course you simply state what I spent plenty of words on:
    "my conclusion is that the real estate market has a way to go (down) before it can reach a sustainable equilibrium (which is probably what you were trying to say in the first place)"
    I could have saved all that typing!

    I have always viewed a home purchase as a lifestyle choice and a sort of forced savings plan. As it now has become just another lottery ticket way to try and score big profits, housing now has dissociated from any metric used to value it. It started in the middle 1980's, collapsed in early ninetirs, then caught wildfire without comparison in the 2000's.

    So yes, still a ways down from here for almost all markets.
    Jan 21 08:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Financial Reform Wish: End All Support for Housing Market [View article]
    All,
    I am not getting into a health care debate here but here are my thoughts:
    Subtract the gains in life expectany from a deacreased infant mortality rate since 1900 and you will see only the slightest bump in longevity. Manya05 highlights lifestyle differences as well and that is huge. As far as that the US pays more, it allows so many others to pay less. That sucks but it is what is is. If the US payed what the Swiss do, the Swiss would have to pay much more as well as all the other nationalized programs. See how that works out.

    My post highlighted the help offered to housing and a fat panda asked where do I draw the line, that's easy end all support including interest deduction. When I wrote all I meant all.
    Jan 21 07:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Store Retail Sales: Final Aggregate Numbers 'Unexpected' - What Happened? [View article]
    ctjaeger,
    right on. That about squares wtih my research as well.
    Jan 15 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Store Retail Sales: Final Aggregate Numbers 'Unexpected' - What Happened? [View article]
    Manya05,
    Great points made in the first section. I will pass your take along to the reader that asked the question; thanks for the information.

    I think your second point really nails it.
    Jan 15 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Same Store Retail Sales: Final Aggregate Numbers 'Unexpected' - What Happened? [View article]
    Michael,
    As I wrote it is not even that much of the numbers/data is massaged but that plenty of it is still bad but nobody cares. I guess you can have a bull market if everyone wants one!
    Jan 15 07:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    BTW,
    please do not refer to me as "E.D." LOL.
    Jan 9 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Michael Clark,
    good to see you again! Sorry not all of my posts make SA.

    Enigmaman,
    I am not sure what you mean about the SPAM thing?

    Lower and Milkweed,
    housing is very regional. I think Calculated Risk posts architect order charts and those are very low and not rebounding on a national level, but markets differ.

    Home sales numbers have indeed been high (relatively) but most of that is low end homes going fast to tax credit takers. Not sure how that helps the builders as low end homes are not their thing. Also I would wonder about the sanity of any buyer that would think 5-8k makes or breaks their home buying decision, wait till the roof goes!

    Structural unemployment, higher interest rates, and loss of the illusion of real estate riches will keep a lid on things for a while, but I have been wrong many times before about many things!

    This post has the most comments I have ever had so I thank everyone for participating!
    Jan 9 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Milkweed,
    the three game changers:
    1-Bigger the bust the longer it takes to come back '
    2-What will the mortgage market look like going forward? (I have predicted a new government agency which will be the mortgage market)
    3-Public appetite for homes

    I like your thinking here but I would put the recovery out closer to 2013-2015.
    Jan 9 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Lower and Milkweed,
    Thanks for the input. Great comments and plenty of hard facts to back it up which is rare sometimes in the comments section!
    Jan 9 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Lower,
    check your dates because you have the early 80's mixed with the late 80's.

    Housing types,
    homes via rental or own are steady streams but not goldmines; 150 years of history tells us this.
    Jan 8 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    For anyone interested;
    I have tons of extras up on my own site for friday night like music, trivia, and laughs so stop on by if you like!
    Jan 8 08:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Ignore fds, SA will delete him.

    Milkweed,
    You really have a hold on this information. Can I ask if you are in the industry (home building) or just a hard core study?

    I disagree on time frames, butI find it hard to quarrel with your data.
    Jan 8 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    I think there will be a time for homebuilders but that time is far off and is going to need a final flushing of inventory which every governemnt program delays.
    Jan 8 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Milikweed,
    you bring up excellent points and back it up with historical data so it seems you really have a grasp on this subject.

    I would say the 80' s bubble in RE that ended around 89-91 was maybe 2-3 times smaller than the last bubble we just had. I would adjust the time periods as such to fit that model, then yes, maybe builders are looking up.

    Great comment.
    Jan 8 11:31 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lennar Posts Profits - But Not All Is as It Seems [View article]
    Milkweed,
    if you think huge housing numbers are on the way, especially for NEW homes then good luck with that.

    Manya,
    have not had a blog post picked up for a while and I am glad you are still reading. I do hope the Icelanders do not lose their nerve and give in.
    Jan 8 08:52 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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