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  • Is This The Beginning Of A Meaningful Correction?
    Today, 8:36 AM SPY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • The sharp market correction yesterday is likely to be the beginning of a sustained correction.
    • Treasury bond yields and dollar index supports my view on market correction.
    • The ECB meet today is unlikely to have a positive impact on markets and can accelerate correction on the contrary.
  • Where Is Natural Grocers Headed?
    Thu, Sep. 25 NGVC 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Natural Grocers continues to grow, but the stock still remains ahead of its fundamentals.
    • The stock can correct by another 10%-15% as forward PE valuations still look stretched.
    • Natural Grocers has good long-term prospects and further correction will be a good investing opportunity.
  • Tata Motors Looks Good For Further Rally
    Thu, Sep. 25 TTM Comment!

    Summary

    • Tata Motors has been moving higher and looks good for further rally.
    • Jaguar Land Rover will continue to be the company's biggest growth driver with product innovation and emerging market growth.
    • As economic growth in India picks up, the company commercial vehicle segment is also likely to grow at a strong pace.
  • Seadrill: Fredriksen's Commitment Builds Confidence
    Tue, Sep. 23 SDRL 13 Comments

    Summary

    • John Fredriksen acquired shares worth $57 million from the markets and this might signal an end to the stock's current slide.
    • John Fredriksen share purchase comes amidst Tor Olav Trøim's exit and the share acquisition signals his commitment towards Seadrill.
    • While Seadrill looks attractive, investors can still wait for more clarity to emerge on the Rosneft deal as it involves Russia.
  • Crew Energy Has More Upside Potential
     • Fri, Sep. 19 CWEGF 1 Comment

    Summary

    • In the last 14 months (since my coverage), Crew Energy has moved higher by 76%.
    • The company's upside potential is not over as it plans the next big stage of growth through non-core asset disposition.
    • Big capital expenditure program with high operational success rate are the critical success factors for Crew Energy.
    • Financial flexibility is strong for the planned expansion activity.
  • AGCO Has A Great Future
    Thu, Sep. 18 AGCO 3 Comments

    Summary

    • AGCO, with its production innovation, is well positioned to grow steadily in the agriculture sector.
    • Low crop yield in emerging countries along with high level of harvest related losses are opportunities for AGCO.
    • Food demand is expected to grow by 60% by 2030 as compared to 2012 and this will keep demand for the company's products stable.
  • Adecoagro Has Strong Upside Potential
    Thu, Sep. 18 AGRO 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Adecoagro is undervalued based on the market valuation of its farmland.
    • An increase in crushing capacity by March 2015 will boost the company’s growth and will take the stock higher.
    • Continued sale of farmland assets at premium over appraised value will keep financial flexibility high and help fund core operations.
  • Seadrill: Remain On Sidelines For Events To Unfold
    Mon, Sep. 15 SDRL 33 Comments

    Summary

    • Seadrill has slumped in the recent past and I expect more correction in the stock.
    • Negative impact from sanctions on Russia is a looming negative trigger.
    • Seadrill needs to cut dividends as its payout exceeds the OCF in relatively challenging market conditions.
    • In the long term, Seadrill remains a good bet, provided industry conditions improve.
  • RigNet Remains A Value Creator
     • Thu, Sep. 11 RNET 1 Comment

    Summary

    • RigNet has moved higher by 86% since I covered the stock in June 2013 and the rally is likely to continue.
    • The company continues to increase its market share in the remote communication industry through superior services.
    • Strong growth in the offshore oil & gas industry is the company’s key revenue driver and will remain the growth driver over the next few years.
    • RigNet still looks attractive considering a likely earnings growth of 54.4% in 2015.
  • Indicators Of Overvalued U.S. Equities
    Wed, Sep. 10 SPY 17 Comments

    Summary

    • The forward PE indicates overvaluation in US markets as compared to historical averages.
    • US equities are overvalued even in terms of cyclically adjusted PE ratio and Tobin's Q ratio with a likely downside of 10%-15%.
    • High level of margin debt indicates high speculative activity and this is another sign of near-term peak in markets.
  • Eros International Will Deliver Strong Growth And Returns
    Wed, Sep. 10 EROS 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Eros International is the global leader in Indian filmed entertainment and well positioned to grow in an under-penetrated market.
    • Theatrical content is likely to be the biggest growth driver for the company followed by television content and digital content.
    • Eros International has an edge over peers with a comprehensive library of movie rights and with high financial flexibility.
  • Positive Sentiments And Stock Upside To Continue For GasLog
     • Tue, Sep. 9 GLOG 2 Comments

    Summary

    • GasLog has moved higher by 87% since my coverage and more upside is likely.
    • Delivery of new vessels in 2015 and 2016 will spur revenue and EBITDA growth.
    • High revenue visibility make cash inflow certain and strong industry fundamentals will help revenue visibility remain strong.
  • Investment Amidst Unusual Movement In Asset Classes
    Mon, Sep. 8 GLD, JNJ, SPY 2 Comments

    Summary

    • There has been an unusual synchronized move in global asset classes in 2014.
    • Treasuries can rally more in the short-term while equities can correct by 10%-15% before further rally.
    • Dollar index surge in the recent past is a sign of relative contraction in global liquidity.
  • Transocean Partners: 5.1% Distribution Yield And Strong Growth Potential
    Fri, Sep. 5 RIGP 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Transocean Partners has a 5.1% distribution yield, which is likely to grow over the next two years.
    • The company is undervalued on a relative valuation basis, and the stock still has upside potential even after a 30% upside since IPO.
    • The omnibus agreement with Transocean allows for revenue and EBITDA growth under long-term rig contracts.
  • Air Lease: Credit Perspective For Equity Investors
    Thu, Sep. 4 AL Comment!

    Summary

    • Air Lease has a debt of $6.3 billion, but the company can comfortably service debt and leverage is not a worry.
    • The company's loan-to-value is less than 100% providing scope for further leveraging.
    • Most of the new aircraft delivery over the next 2-3 years is leased and will result in easy debt financing.
  • A Good Time To Buy Wal-Mart
    Thu, Sep. 4 WMT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Wal-Mart is likely to do well in the seasonally strong quarters coming up.
    • Consumer confidence is at its highest since the crisis and festive season consumption should increase.
    • E-commerce for Wal-Mart is just starting to get bigger and holds immense long-term potential.
  • MakeMyTrip Will Continue To Create Value
    Wed, Sep. 3 MMYT 1 Comment

    Summary

    • MakeMyTrip has moved higher by 126% since my recommendation and the stock will continue to trend higher.
    • The company serves a fast growing and under-penetrated market with market leadership being an added advantage.
    • Higher sales mix of hotels & packages as compared to air ticketing is boosting margins as MakeMyTrip moves towards profitability.
  • The Failure Of Expansionary Monetary Policies
    Tue, Sep. 2 GLD, SPY 17 Comments

    Summary

    • Money Velocity is at a 50-year low, indicating sluggish real business activity.
    • Expansionary monetary policies have done little beyond helping the financial system out of crisis.
    • Policy change and favorable business environment for infrastructure, manufacturing and small businesses is the need of the hour.
  • Will Employment Factors Prevent An Interest Rate Hike?
    Fri, Aug. 29 BSV, PG, VCLT 4 Comments

    Summary

    • The headline unemployment paints a positive picture, but there are several other employment related concerns.
    • SNAP Participants are increasing along with an improving economy, indicating that things are worse than what headline numbers suggest.
    • Record number of people not in labor force and 30-year low employment population ratio are some other major concerns.
  • Talking Gloom Amidst The Boom
    Thu, Aug. 28 GLD, INDA, INDY 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Equity markets are near record highs, but there are warning signals that should not be ignored.
    • Global debt levels are higher than that of 2007 and leverage can translate into another crisis.
    • Geo-Political tensions have not significantly impacted equities, but have the potential to spook markets.
    • China debt crisis still remains to unfold in my opinion.
  • Ensco Looks Attractive At Current Levels
    Thu, Aug. 28 ESV 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Ensco looks attractive at current levels on a standalone basis and relative to Seadrill.
    • The company will continue to increase dividends at a robust pace as new rigs become operations.
    • Low leverage and attractive valuations are the other positive factors for Ensco.
  • No Reason To Remain Bearish On Gold
    Fri, Aug. 22 ABX, NEM, GLD 9 Comments

    Summary

    • The correction in gold and bearish sentiments is a good buying opportunity.
    • Expansionary monetary policies and geo-political tensions are gold price supportive.
    • Additionally, gold mining stocks are trading at attractive valuations and are a value buy.
  • Strong Growth Drivers For Freeport-McMoRan
    Fri, Aug. 22 FCX 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Amidst a slowdown in China, Freeport-McMoRan has underperformed in the last two years.
    • Freeport-McMoRan capital expenditure cycle is picking-up and it indicates stronger growth in the future.
    • Significant investment in next 3 years in oil & gas assets will boost the EBITDA margin.
    • Resumption of exports from Indonesia is another stock upside factor.
  • Correction, Not Crash, Is What I Expect
    Mon, Aug. 18 JNJ, PG, SPY 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Market valuations are stretched, but a crash in unlikely.
    • Expansionary monetary policies will continue to support markets.
    • A 15%-20% correction would not be a surprise after a five year bull market.
  • Fed Likely To Implement Negative Deposit Rates
    Sun, Jun. 22 FCX, JNJ 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The Fed is likely to follow the ECB and introduce negative deposit rates.
    • The excess reserves of depository institutions with the Fed has surged to $2.5 trillion, and the Fed pays an interest of 0.25% on excess reserves.
    • A likely introduction of negative deposit rates can spur a further rally in stocks and bonds.
  • Tata Motors Still Has Upside Potential
    Wed, Jun. 18 TTM Comment!

    Summary

    • Tata Motors has surged by 48% in the last one year and the rally is likely to continue.
    • Jaguar Land Rover will continue to be a major revenue and margin driver for the company with continued sales growth.
    • Government change in India and a likely shift in monetary policy will support local growth for cars and commercial vehicles.
  • Caterpillar Is An Avoid At Current Levels
    Wed, Jun. 18 CAT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Continued slump in the resources industry sales will keep Caterpillar's revenue and EPS growth muted.
    • China's economy is expected to grow at a sluggish pace over the next two years according to IMF and this will impact Caterpillar.
    • Based on the forward PE valuation and current EV/EBITDA valuation, Caterpillar is expensive and a correction is likely.
  • Markets Headed For Steep Correction
    Mon, Apr. 14 EEM, JNJ, PG 10 Comments

    Summary

    • US markets can potentially correct by 15%-20% in 2014.
    • A record high margin debt indicates excessive levels of speculation in the market.
    • The US IPO market is flooded with new paper and valuations signal that the end of party might be in sight.
  • Seadrill Looks Attractive After Correction
    Tue, Feb. 4 SDRL 12 Comments
  • The Fed Needs To Continue Its Expansionary Monetary Policies
    Mon, Feb. 3 JNJ, PG, VHT 2 Comments
  • Zooming Monetary Base Supporting Equity Markets
    Oct. 19, 2013 GLD, JNJ, PG 20 Comments
  • Head NV Will Continue To Head North
    Oct. 8, 2013 HEDYY Comment!