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  • Seadrill's Likely Dividend Cut: Morgan Stanley Agrees With Me [View article]
    Yes, i was also expecting the dividend yield to come down to 10% from 19.8% after dividend cut. The suspension of dividends came as a surprise to me as well. However, good for the long-term.
    Nov 26, 2014. 05:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seadrill's Likely Dividend Cut: Morgan Stanley Agrees With Me [View article]
    This article was for PRO subscribers (released yesterday). You are reading after a 24-hour Embargo. Thanks.
    Nov 26, 2014. 04:59 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Pain Is India's Gain [View article]
    No doubt India is way behind...Just consider the per capita consumption of oil and commodities in India...http://bit.ly/1y1NJvc

    However, a lower base means bigger growth. And this is the best time with the current government pushing for growth and likely big reforms...
    Nov 23, 2014. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Global Gloom? [View article]
    I believe that with 7 euro-area countries already in deflation...Recession is entirely likely there...http://bit.ly/1y1NHDK

    Further, China is in a spot of bother. I see only US and India and relatively bright spots for equities in 2015.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Pain Is India's Gain [View article]
    Negative outlook for India does not mean doom for China. The entire point is related to where you will make more money. Currently, you will make more money in Indian markets than Chinese markets. And this can be the trend for the next 5-10 years.
    Nov 23, 2014. 08:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    It is difficult to talk about specific targets. But if oil is around $90-$100 and if emerging Asia shows sustained recovery, I believe that FCX can potentially double from these levels...Take a 3-5 year investment horizon...
    Nov 20, 2014. 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    I believe that Freeport-McMoRan will be trading meaningfully higher even if a time horizon of 12-24 months is considered.
    Nov 19, 2014. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Seadrill To Cut Dividends In Q314 [View article]
    I agree that it can be a series of smaller cuts than one big cut. it all depends on how the oil prices move from here and the day rate trend. The day rate trend looks very weak and that is not good news for new rig deliveries happening in 2015 and 2016.

    According to Morgan Stanley, the offshore markets are likely to recover in 2016. If that happens, that will be a big respite for heavy debt laden offshore drillers.

    As I mentioned in the article, I am also positive on Seadrill for the long-term and I will be more positive on the company if they cut dividends.
    Nov 5, 2014. 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Seadrill To Cut Dividends In Q314 [View article]
    The company needs to borrow to pay the current dividends and interest outgo.The next year cash flow will be lower as several rigs are going off-contract and they will be contracted at lower day rates.

    If paying dividends by taking additional debt is called sustainable, than it is surely sustainable. But I believe that the management will consider financial prudence and cut dividends.

    Let us also not forget that debt will increase further in 2015 and 2016.
    Nov 5, 2014. 08:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Seadrill To Cut Dividends In Q314 [View article]
    The management certainly did not expect value erosion at it has happened now. Let's wait and watch. Does a 18% dividend yield look sustainable? It is not sustainable from any perspective. Thanks.
    Nov 5, 2014. 08:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    The Fed (to some extent) can determine how much money flows into the financial and economic system. However, they have no control over where the money will go. Excessive liquidity is manifesting itself in the form of asset inflation across all asset classes globally. This has created more volatility and uncertainly.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    Yes, we need to let the free markets work. There was no cap on high asset prices, no cap on over leverage, but when the system started adjusting, policymakers intervened. Its just setting stage for a bigger crisis that will come without doubt.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    First, there will be no high interest rate as I believe that real interest rates will remain negative for the next 5-10 years (if not more). In any healthy economy, the interest rates are higher than the rate of inflation.

    And look at any middle-class household in the US. I am sure you will agree that the annual inflation is at least 5% and not the numbers published by the government.
    Oct 21, 2014. 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    Leverage and expansionary monetary policies caused the crisis in the first place. More leverage was then needed to prevent a greater crisis and it has set stage for an even greater crisis. Is there an end?
    Oct 20, 2014. 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Correction Overdone - Bounce Back Imminent [View article]
    "Another factor that can keep oil prices relatively lower is the current negotiations with Iran on the uranium enrichment issue. If the United States and Iran can come to an agreement on limiting the uranium enrichment, sanctions will be eased and Iran's oil exports can surge. However, this factor will be offset by global growth revival, which increases the demand for oil in emerging countries."

    Check for per capita consumption of oil in India and China. Also other emerging markets. If growth is back in emerging markets, the demand will be very significant.
    Oct 18, 2014. 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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