Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Economics Fanatic  

View Economics Fanatic's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    I understand your point on business cycles, but in my view, the intervention of policymakers is a big factor when you are talking about 1949-1956 as compared to 2015. Leverage is also a big factor when you compare these two periods. The point I am trying to make here is that the overall assessment is not as simple as the 8 year business cycle. Never in the history of capitalism has the world been so leveraged. There are lot of things coming in the next decade and many not be very desirable.
    May 17, 2015. 10:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    A weak dollar will have a positive impact on net exports that has been declining in terms of impact on GDP. While less of consumption might not be bad, it is certainly not what policymakers want.
    May 17, 2015. 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    It is difficult to talk about the next three months, 2 years is a long-time. But I do believe that the US economy will need stimulus in some form or the other to sustain growth, even if it means sluggish growth as compared to current levels.
    May 17, 2015. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tumbling Consumer Confidence Increases Policymakers' Worries [View article]
    "The latest slump in consumer confidence is a clear indication that the economy still has headwinds. I would again emphasize that I am not expecting a renewed recession, but the data in the recent past are worrying."

    It is dangerous to take a biased view. Near-term data is negative and that's a fact. However, it does not imply very bearish sentiments. Another article for publishing talks about the positives amidst the negatives. We have to take a balanced view if we intend to generate robust returns from different asset classes.

    May 17, 2015. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is China's Excess Liquidity Flowing? [View article]
    China will likely cut interest rates...
    Apr 20, 2015. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too Early To Be Bullish On Oil [View article]
    I am happy for your gains, but you just need to remain cautious. Volatile markets can give handsome gains as well as big losses. At times, its just a matter of luck...Given the fact that the markets are constantly bombarded with different news, short-term trade can be tricky.
    Apr 16, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China's Growth Will Continue To Disappoint [View article]
    I agree with your point. But I am of the view that the financial sector is and will be in further trouble in China. That's going to impact equities significantly on the downside. Further, the impact of stimulus on equity markets is like a dead cat bounce. I would also wish to see market returns in a strong currency than a currency that is being devalued through money printing. So its not just one aspect.
    Apr 15, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lower Oil Price: More Positive Than Negative For Real Economy [View article]
    In the last 7 years, there have been instances where the private sector savings has increased and subsequently declined. The trend in the last 3-4 months doe not imply a continued direction.
    Apr 14, 2015. 01:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Announcing Winners For Seeking Alpha's First-Ever Investment Pitch Contest [View article]
    Congratulations to the winners. Unfortunately could not participate this time. But looking forward to more such opportunities.
    Mar 23, 2015. 06:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News Continues For Indian Markets [View article]
    There are views that the RBI has cut interest rates due to government pressure instead of acting independently. While I don't subscribe to this view, I completely agree with the point that there are several uncertainties surrounding the inflation outlook.

    In particular, crude oil prices have a key role to play as higher crude oil prices generally translate into higher food inflation as well in the country (due to increase in transportation and related cost).

    Having said that, my view on crude oil is as follows - If there is no significant escalation in global geo-political tensions, crude oil is likely to remain around current levels or lower in 1H15 and gradually trend higher in 2H15. Maybe its too early to take a call on 2016.

    I will also add here that India's new government has thus far outlined a robust growth plan. However, investors will now look for implementation than just plans on paper. Success on that front will help the rally sustain.
    Mar 5, 2015. 08:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The India Story Is Finally Taking Off [View article]
    SSLT is promising for long-term and I believe that decline in oil prices and general depressed sentiments for industrial commodities is a good time to consider exposure to SSLT.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The India Story Is Finally Taking Off [View article]
    India is certainly a growth story worth watching out. In some of my recent articles I have opined that Indian equities will be the best performing globally in 2015 and I maintain that view.

    The upcoming budget promises to be transformational and I also expect another 75 to 100 basis points interest rate cut. Mr. Modi has been entirely focused on the development agenda and I believe that the results will start showing over the next 2-3 years given the point that first the damage to the economy has to be repaired and then the big growth comes.
    Jan 23, 2015. 08:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain In Store For China Equities [View article]
    Given the point that you are well aware of the Chinese economy and the fundamentals, I can say with conviction that you would be aware of the risks in the banking and financial sector. What we see now in terms of bad loans is just the tip of the iceberg.
    Jan 20, 2015. 05:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More Pain In Store For China Equities [View article]
    The US equities (at least for now) are being driven by strong economic fundamentals and liquidity always remains a factor.

    Chinese equities are largely driven by liquidity at this point of time. The IMF growth estimate suggests that China's GDP growth will trend lower in 2015 and 2016. Clearly, reversal in economic activity is not on the horizon and I believe that the liquidity driven rally will stall (sooner than later).
    Jan 20, 2015. 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Draghi Will Trigger Next Significant Upside For U.S. Markets [View article]
    The article begins with the fundamental factors that have taken the US markets higher...And let's not forget, liquidity is a fundamental factor...Of course, the rally has been backed by company specific fundamentals...However, take the liquidity out of the system, valuations will suddenly go down to levels that will make no sense from a company fundamental perspective...
    Jan 2, 2015. 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment