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  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    It is difficult to talk about specific targets. But if oil is around $90-$100 and if emerging Asia shows sustained recovery, I believe that FCX can potentially double from these levels...Take a 3-5 year investment horizon...
    Nov 20 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport-McMoRan: Bullish View Maintained For The Long Term [View article]
    I believe that Freeport-McMoRan will be trading meaningfully higher even if a time horizon of 12-24 months is considered.
    Nov 19 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Seadrill To Cut Dividends In Q314 [View article]
    I agree that it can be a series of smaller cuts than one big cut. it all depends on how the oil prices move from here and the day rate trend. The day rate trend looks very weak and that is not good news for new rig deliveries happening in 2015 and 2016.

    According to Morgan Stanley, the offshore markets are likely to recover in 2016. If that happens, that will be a big respite for heavy debt laden offshore drillers.

    As I mentioned in the article, I am also positive on Seadrill for the long-term and I will be more positive on the company if they cut dividends.
    Nov 5 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Seadrill To Cut Dividends In Q314 [View article]
    The company needs to borrow to pay the current dividends and interest outgo.The next year cash flow will be lower as several rigs are going off-contract and they will be contracted at lower day rates.

    If paying dividends by taking additional debt is called sustainable, than it is surely sustainable. But I believe that the management will consider financial prudence and cut dividends.

    Let us also not forget that debt will increase further in 2015 and 2016.
    Nov 5 08:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect Seadrill To Cut Dividends In Q314 [View article]
    The management certainly did not expect value erosion at it has happened now. Let's wait and watch. Does a 18% dividend yield look sustainable? It is not sustainable from any perspective. Thanks.
    Nov 5 08:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    The Fed (to some extent) can determine how much money flows into the financial and economic system. However, they have no control over where the money will go. Excessive liquidity is manifesting itself in the form of asset inflation across all asset classes globally. This has created more volatility and uncertainly.
    Oct 21 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    Yes, we need to let the free markets work. There was no cap on high asset prices, no cap on over leverage, but when the system started adjusting, policymakers intervened. Its just setting stage for a bigger crisis that will come without doubt.
    Oct 21 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    First, there will be no high interest rate as I believe that real interest rates will remain negative for the next 5-10 years (if not more). In any healthy economy, the interest rates are higher than the rate of inflation.

    And look at any middle-class household in the US. I am sure you will agree that the annual inflation is at least 5% and not the numbers published by the government.
    Oct 21 12:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Back To Square One [View article]
    Leverage and expansionary monetary policies caused the crisis in the first place. More leverage was then needed to prevent a greater crisis and it has set stage for an even greater crisis. Is there an end?
    Oct 20 11:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Correction Overdone - Bounce Back Imminent [View article]
    "Another factor that can keep oil prices relatively lower is the current negotiations with Iran on the uranium enrichment issue. If the United States and Iran can come to an agreement on limiting the uranium enrichment, sanctions will be eased and Iran's oil exports can surge. However, this factor will be offset by global growth revival, which increases the demand for oil in emerging countries."

    Check for per capita consumption of oil in India and China. Also other emerging markets. If growth is back in emerging markets, the demand will be very significant.
    Oct 18 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Looks Vulnerable Among Drillers [View article]
    I believe you are talking about adding the special cash dividend in addition to the regular dividend paid by the company. And I believe that you need to wait for the next few quarters to see if the special cash dividend is sustainable. In my opinion, its not. Thanks.
    Oct 5 02:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Indian Markets Likely To Be Star Performers [View article]
    These stocks are not listed in US or Europe, but I am looking with great interest at -

    1) Treehouse Education & Accessories
    2) Prozone Capital (now Intu Properties)
    3) Broadly the Banking Sector

    Disclosure: I am long Treehouse Education.
    Oct 4 02:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adecoagro Has Strong Upside Potential [View article]
    Well, I don't see it coming anytime soon. Can't predict the timeline, but for now they might be better off recycling their funds to operational expansion than dividends.
    Sep 19 02:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Talking Gloom Amidst The Boom [View article]
    Not necessarily true. If you look at the chart of emerging and developed market equities performance in the last three years, you will get the answer.
    Aug 30 02:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ensco Looks Attractive At Current Levels [View article]
    Thanks for your comment. But I clearly understand the difference. If you go back to my articles, I have been following Seadrill for years and there are several bullish articles on the company.

    Related to other points, check on my other comments and the clarification related to the debt.
    Aug 28 11:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment