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  • Dow Remains Resilient Despite Calls for a Correction [View article]
    I think no one is used to bear markets these days...Whenever the Dow goes down there is lot of hue and cry and the Government and Fed comes to action...Quantitative easing, stimulus packages follow...These are just flooding the system with liquidity...So there is a greater disconnect between fundamentals and markets...

    I would say that if the economy gets weaker the markets might go higher....cos the government will again print some more money...that will be used for speculation in different asset classes....
    Nov 10 04:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Same Old Play Book [View article]
    Yes you are correct...did not mention that...the easy money for speculation is only for the big players...


    On Nov 08 09:37 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:

    > Only if you are Goldman Sachs. Have you tried requesting a loan for
    > speculative purposes?
    Nov 8 12:56 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke: Same Old Play Book [View article]
    I am very sure that the Fed would not increase rates anytime soon as they have said...They have done that in the past by keeping rates artifically low even after the recession was over (after the Nasdaq bubble)..I see no reason why they will be different this time...

    This is especially true when they have said that "the interest rates would be low for an extended period"...So Dollar carry trade would go on...lower interest rates will surely not do anything productive,...Only that it will make money more easily avaliable for speculation...
    Nov 8 07:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elliot Wave: The Dollar Is Set for a Major Rally [View article]
    I am not sure if we are going to have a sustained rally in the Dollar...In the very near term, Dollar can go up as sentiments are very bearish on the Dollar...But in general, a strong Dollar would mean weakness in all asset classes...That's something the Fed and the U.S Government does not want...They will do anything to prevent asset deflation...So in the long run the Dollar will go down and its downward trend will be reversed by small upsides when sentimens get too bearish...
    Nov 8 07:53 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Reality Hits: Q3 GDP Growth Breakdown [View article]
    A really nice analysis bringing out the real factors that have lead to the GDP growth...In my opinion as well, the relatively high growth shown in Q3 2009 is not sustainable in the near term...

    I am very sure that in the next few quarters we might hear about another stimulus package as that would be essential to get the economy going...
    Oct 31 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Yields Are a Good Barometer of Economy's Future Prospects [View article]
    Treasury Yields can be subject to some level of manipulation through debt monetization by the Government...any thoughts or opinions on that?

    I think its not always that treasury yields reflect the real picture...However, the treasury yields are surely showing that inflation is coming...and inflation might be coming in the future in a big way...yields have not gone down even after monetization...
    Oct 27 07:44 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund Reserve Ratio Slumps [View article]
    For sure Bair is very right in her comments and suggestions as well...The depositors money needs to be protected at any cost...and bankers are the one who need to take this responsibility more then anyone else...A advance payment to FDIC is not a bad suggestion...But banks are opposing that...However, they are comfortable with huge bonus packages which is again on the cards...
    Oct 27 03:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India Focuses on Poorer Consumers [View article]
    India is surely growing at a decent pace and it has the potential to grow faster if the Government allows for better and easier regulations and there is less of corruption...

    The per capita income for an Indian has doubled in the ast seven years..

    Generally speaking, it is in Asia where the standards of living are going up...On the other hand, the developed world's standard of living is the same or in most case in the process of going down...
    Oct 22 06:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow: The Higher It Gets the Harder It Will Fall [View article]
    I don't think that the Dow will fall really sharply or crash...It will keep going higher in nominal terms but lower against hard assets like gold...This is how the Dow will crash in the future and this is how it has been falling in the past 9-10 years...

    The reason is that even if markets fall 15-20% due to weak economic data or any other reason...the Government is ready with bail out packages and stimulus packages...So Mr. Bernanke and Company are determined not to let asset prices fall...

    So prices might not fall in nominal terms and only fall in real term...What i would refer as the "SILENT CRASH OF THE MARKETS"
    Oct 21 09:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is the Inflation? [View article]
    well if you look at Government published numbers, most probably there will never be inflation...

    Individuals are experiencing inflation...Check out the health care cost...the education cost...check out the food prices...for every family in US, there is over 5% inflation....which is likely to get higher with the recent massive money printing exercise...
    Oct 21 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If the Middle Class Crumbles What Happens to Political Stability? [View article]
    The real household income for a middle-class American has hardly changed in the last decade...The real income is calculated by taking into consideration the CPI...which again is a highly flawed measure of inflation...

    So, one can safely assume that the standards of living for a middle class American has gone down in the last 5-10 years...

    However, many Americans are still not aware of how inflation is eating up their incomes...The day people are generally more aware about this and many other things...it would not be very surprising to see a civil uprising...
    Oct 21 06:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Not a Sucker's Rally - It's a New Bull Market [View article]
    When you give billions to Dollars to major market participants and keep interest rates at near zero levels then a rally in the markets or for that matter many other asset classes is very likely...

    But one needs to see how much the Dow goes up in nominal terms and real terms...So the market rally is also associated with a sharp fall in the Dollar...

    Not always market rally is good news...The real economy is just too weak to absorb all the excess liquidity...Thus, the excess liquidity is getting absorbed by equities, commodities and other asset classes....
    Oct 21 04:19 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Wary of the Gold Trade [View article]
    There is a high probability that Gold might correct in the near term..But in the long term, the trend is still upwards...A weak US dollar, high deficits leading to inflation are the supporting factors for gold...

    So, in my opinion, short term investors would look to book profits at these levels...Long term investors would ideally look to buy more on corrections...

    As long as people like Ben Bernanke are there, Gold will go higher...for this I have full confidence in Mr. Bernanke...
    Oct 21 01:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke Gets It Right, in Asia [View article]
    Mr. Ben Bernanke has also said since the crisis began that a strong Dollar is what the US wants...

    There is a big difference between saying and doing...On one hand he is talking about reducing deficits, on the other hand the US congress has projected a $7.3 trillion deficit by 2019...

    Mr. Ben Bernanke also talks of increasing savings rate...But his policy does not show that he has any intention of doing so...Keeping interest rates so low that it penalizes savers is no way of increasing savings rate...

    Some time back he was calling banks to start lending so that consumption can be spurred up again...

    I don't think Bernanke has any clue of what he wants to do...However his words and actions are poles apart in most of the cases....
    Oct 21 12:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Next Economic Crisis Already Underway [View article]
    I would not entirely agree to the fact that Government Bonds are a good investment...AAA Corporate bonds are giving better returns...moreover, the Government itself has a high probability of going bust in trying to service the huge debt...

    So I would say that short term Government bonds are still fine..

    Long Term Government Bonds are a disaster...
    Oct 20 06:04 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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