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  • The Futility Of Expanding The Monetary Base [View article]
    I think the Fed has tried all tricks in it's bag. For now, the best idea could be to let the free markets work. We have no seen that for a while.

    Re: inflation - It is difficult to target inflation (in my opinion). It is a dynamic process and it can very from sector to sector. Even today, some sectors are experiencing deflation while others mild or relatively high inflation.
    Apr 9 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Futility Of Expanding The Monetary Base [View article]
    Yes, as you pointed out, understanding the fractional reserve banking system is critical. I think it is so simple that people fail to understand it. Or accept it...:)
    Apr 9 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Futility Of Expanding The Monetary Base [View article]
    Thanks Joseph for your comment.

    I think the Fed might eventually try everything to prevent deflation. If deflation occurs, household and financial assets will vanish in thin air.

    However, i also think that there will be a point when the policymakers will be impotent in preventing deflation. might be more of a scenario where the current financial system goes bust.
    Apr 9 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For A Potential Deflationary Scenario [View article]
    Timing the market is never easy. However, my opinion is that we might trend higher on the S&P over the next 3-5 years. Sure, there will be corrections.
    Mar 6 06:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Preparing For A Potential Deflationary Scenario [View article]
    What one needs to understand is the scenario in which deflation is likely. In my opinion, it is very likely in a scenario where currencies are crumbling after a bout of high inflation.

    When the value of paper money becomes zero, gold still remains value as a currency.
    Mar 6 06:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Big Reasons To Buy Gold [View article]
    Different people have different strategies. The key point is to be flexible and not rigid in your opinion. It needs to be accessed and revised with time and the prevailing scenario.

    Just as an example - Gold has outperformed Berkshire Hathaway and S&P by a long way since 2000. However, S&P and BH outperformed gold during the period 1980 to 2000.

    The point I am making here is that we need to capitalize on long-term secular bull market for different asset classes instead of having a bias for any asset class.

    In the current scenario, given the reasons above and several other factors, gold will continue to do exceedingly well. It therefore makes sense to have some part of the portfolio (15-20%) in gold.

    Hope I could answer your question.
    Feb 15 10:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Price And Monetary Base: A Bullish Case For Gold [View article]
    It is difficult to talk about exact targets. Having said that, I do feel that gold might have some more correction in store. As a long-term investor, I would accumulate gold at these levels and also on further declines.
    Feb 13 11:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • End Of High Growth Era For Advanced Economies [View article]
    It is just the inverse of the dependents population. Therefore, a rise in dependents population is indicated by a decline in the inverse dependency ratio.
    Feb 13 08:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Down 30% In Dow Terms: More Correction Likely [View article]
    Hi Tom,

    It is relatively easy to identify bottoms than tops for asset markets. Having said that, I personally believe that we might have another leg of upside before the markets witness any meaningful correction.
    Feb 10 03:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets: The Place To Be [View article]
    You can consider individual stock exposure or index ETF's for other emerging markets. I would also like to mention here that the Dollar will not go bust anytime soon. Do we have an alternative global currency?
    Jan 9 10:34 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets: The Place To Be [View article]
    Agreed, Africa will start looking more attractive in the days to come. Also, my personal opinion is that Russia might surprise on the positive in the long-term.
    Jan 9 10:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Emerging Markets: The Place To Be [View article]
    Japan is certainly not emerging. However, it might be a contrarian bet using a bottom-up analysis for stocks given the fact that the markets are still 60% lower than the 1989 peak.
    Jan 9 10:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Bull Market Is Over; Inflation Will Take Center Stage [View article]
    Thanks for your comments Joseph.

    I think it was Roubini who famously said after the economic crisis that US needs another bubble. Of course, they already have this treasury bubble.

    I also doubt that they can exactly follow their agenda (if any). Markets are very dynamic and the Fed might not necessarily achieve what they initially set out to do.

    For now, in my personal opinion, financial repression or inflating their way out of debt is the solution they might be looking at.
    Jan 8 10:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Bull Market Is Over; Inflation Will Take Center Stage [View article]
    There can be high inflation with high output gap. Zimbabwe is the most recent example. I am certainly not saying that US is going the Zimbabwe way. All I am saying is that it might be wrong to take output gap and set policy rates based on that.

    If enough money is printed, there will be inflation even with no growth. Debt monetization is a perfect recipe for inflation.
    Jan 8 09:36 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Bull Market Is Over; Inflation Will Take Center Stage [View article]
    One major difference, Japan primarily had debt local debt holders while US still has meaningful debt holding by international investors.
    Jan 8 03:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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