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  • The Economy Is Sliding Into a Stagflationary Spiral [View article]
    Thank you for all the good comments. You are my kind of guys.
    May 17, 2011. 06:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy Is Sliding Into a Stagflationary Spiral [View article]
    The Dow didn't hit 1929 level until 1954. Good comment.
    May 17, 2011. 06:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Wall Street Ignores Real Risk and Why History Will Repeat Itself [View article]
    Read "Black Swan" and then tell me what you think.
    May 10, 2011. 02:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Wall Street Ignores Real Risk and Why History Will Repeat Itself [View article]
    Everyone is greedy, so it's more than that. I think it is groupthink and the safety of the pack. Nassim Taleb is not seen as someone who should be taken seriously or, they just don't understand what he's saying.
    May 9, 2011. 01:30 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Worldwide Inflation Is Impacting Recovery [View article]
    I wouldn't disagree for the longer term, but presently supply is adequate and demand in US is decreasing. Thanks for the comment. J
    Apr 19, 2011. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Real Estate Market Turning Around? [View article]
    I write extensively on RE on my blog, The Daily Capitalist. It still looks grim. And, where you are makes a big difference. Thank, JH
    Apr 13, 2011. 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is Unemployment Heading? [View article]
    Exactly right.
    Apr 9, 2011. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is Unemployment Heading? [View article]
    I think Boomers will stay in the workforce longer than people think because they haven't saved enough to retire. If we aren't expanding jobs fast enough that isn't good for those entering the job market. That said, with population expansion, a recent article by Sudeep Reddy in WSJ said we need 250,000 to 300,000 just to catch up to where we were before.

    Good points.
    Apr 8, 2011. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is Unemployment Heading? [View article]
    I would challenge Mr. Gross to prove his statement. It's mostly a post hoc ergo propter hoc analysis by him.
    Apr 7, 2011. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is Unemployment Heading? [View article]
    I understand the issue, but I let Mish deal with that. I use Shadowstats as well. But my data is verified by the private data sources that I mention in the article. Thanks for the comment.
    Apr 6, 2011. 02:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer Spending and the Debt Problem [View article]
    I believe so. This cycle is unlike anything we've seen since the '30s.
    Apr 5, 2011. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Unemployment Really Declining? [View article]
    If I'm right about employment remaining relatively high and stagnant, then they will do QE3. It also has something to do with who will buy those deficit bonds (the Fed will if no one else) and the election year.
    Mar 11, 2011. 12:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Unemployment Really Declining? [View article]
    Thanks for the reference, Lee . I thought your analysis was excellent. I noticed Rosenberg's comment on this issue, that if you average the past two months, the gains are very average. He recommended averaging because of the weather effects in January. I don't know. Rosenberg always measures things against historical data, and I don't think that's a good way to look at things. This cycle is quite different in scope. My own personal view was as stated in the article. We can all quibble about the stats, but since no one really knows what actual unemployment is, I'll stick with "close enough" (government work). What is significant in my opinion is the trend-- flat, up or down? The other significance of the data is that it is what is driving Fed policy. My belief is that we'll see QE3, but then that would be a forecast, and it depends on too many exogenous factors.
    Mar 10, 2011. 12:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Unemployment Really Declining? [View article]
    I think the birth-death models apply only to the establishment data, not the household data. That IS a big guess. But then, I'm no statistician. BTW you present data very well in your article. Thanks for the comment.
    Mar 10, 2011. 12:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Real Estate Continues to Drag the Economy [View article]
    Got it. Thanks for this.
    Mar 8, 2011. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
234 Comments
166 Likes