Ed's Stock Engineering

Ed's Stock Engineering
Contributor since: 2013
Good article. I recently went long Future Fuel for many of the same reasons.
I"ll add that this company has also paid out a special dividend each of the last two years, and based on recent conference calls it sounds as if that will continue.
Also, the Tax Credit bill you mentioned is S.2021, sponsored by Sen Cantwell. If that is passed this year, it both retroactively reinstates the blender credit, and expands its authorization to 3 years.
You know, a lot of people go to college for 7 years...
Chris- This is one of my favorite topics, thanks for starting the chat.
My most successful play centered around tuition re-reimbursement a few years back. My company's reimbursement program would pay for classes up front (upon enrollment), so you could enroll with a credit card at the university, and then use the reimbursement payment to pay the credit card bill and rack up points. They also would reimburse you for any books purchased on a recommended reading list from a syllabus, which obviously as a good student I would need them all. (very similar to your "free books" approach).
I'm sure others have had the same experience.
Brad- Thanks for the article, I doubled my position in DLR with this pullback, and articles like yours help me "sleep well at night". :)
I have also followed this stock for a while, I think this pullback may present another good buying opportunity.
I hope to read over the conference call details this weekend.
Indications from their report were that their margins were impacted due to inventory price considerations... but they also stated they are expecting a record corn crop coming up.
It's a good question, it's not clear to me if they will make up the price delta on having a record crop.
I just read their latest quarterly report... (as I'm sure you saw ANDE is down 4-5% today).
"Revenues increased due to higher grain prices and greater sales volume, which resulted primarily from the addition of the former Green Plains Grain facilities."
So they did see some benefit of the Grain increase again, enough to move some of their revenue higher.
Personally, I believe they have been sailing under the radar.
Actually- After I wrote this article I was out of town and figured I'd missed my window of opportunity to respond, but given 2 comments in the last two days, I see that is not the case. :)
Thank you, I use your work extensively and it continues to help me make good trades.
Best of luck.
Thanks for reading, and good luck on your Foot Locker evaluation.
As an updated disclosure, I am now long FL.
Thanks for reading.
Thanks. I am a Phillies Season Ticket Holder, counting down to opening day :)
Benjy- Thanks for reading.
Thanks for reading TAS
dneedle- Thanks for reading.
I would agree that you should never buy a stock based on one data point, and I would not recommend using a DCF as your only decision tool.
Gypsy_tech- Buying in 2009 was very bold. Good luck!
I do agree that they should not have tax accounting changes in the Earnings, but since they did the chart is accurate.
I should have included more of a discussion of this, and its impact. Thanks for your insight.
That's a long standing relationship. Too bad you still don't have the Model A!
I did read the premilinary articles, but I'm waiting for some concrete details to emerge from the major players, espcially GE. It's not very clear yet what GE's liability may be (if any), other than being named in the press I have yet to see a formal claim or response. Something to keep an eye on.
I haven't heard any talk about Immelt retiring, so I expect him to be at the helm for the foreseeable future.
As commenter Lou Gray pointed out, the Z-score is probably being influenced by the GE capital unit. I do not believe GE has any bankruptcy risk for indefinite future.
GE is certainly isn't going anywhere. It is incredible how diversified they are... They make turbines to create power, and then sell the light bulb at the other end.
I own GE and Intel, and I'm hoping 2013 is a good year for both. I did post an article earlier this week on my Intel thoughts, which you may want to read as well.
Stephen- Thanks. I'm interested to know which stocks you reference.
Thanks Lou- I may look into the calculations with GE Capital, as I know they post addendums specifically about that unit's profitability.
As I am long GE, I certainly don't want to see $20.50, but if it drops that low I would add to my position.
It's an interesting argument, but I don't like to look at the DJIA as an entity, personally I prefer of looking at each stock individually to determine investment prospects.
Ashraf- Thanks for your in-depth analysis. I posted an article on Monday which touched briefly on this same topic, thanks for such an expansive exploration of their R&D. Intel has the ability to overwhelm it's competitors investment to move the market in this domain.
I'm really anticipating the conference presentation, it has the potential to be a real catalyst for Amicus investment.