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  • Seeking Alpha Readers Forum [View instapost]
    It's a reference to a scene in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. If you haven't seen it, it won't make sense. Basically it means Chris is leaving us to fend for ourselves.
    Mar 26, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Readers Forum [View instapost]
    Chris, thanks for sharing your ideas, methods and influences on SA. I have read many investment books over the years and count your free writings to be the most helpful and lucrative of them all followed by Joel Greenblatt's book and Kathryn Staley's Art of Short Selling book. If I could get a refund for all the other books I could pay for a year or two of your service!

    I agree with your decision for the premium service but I can't shake the image of you flying away singing "thanks for the fish":)
    Mar 26, 2015. 12:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'New' Medtronic Significantly Undervalued After Merger With Covidien [View article]
    Thanks for the article. It was well done. For reference, S&P has a target of $89 and Morningstar $72. I think they are just being cautious during the COV integration.
    Mar 22, 2015. 03:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Free Gold [View instapost]
    Chris, thanks for the idea. Love the concept. What is your estimate of the deal risk? I see some shareholder lawsuits regarding the deal. Given the Dec 16 PZG close of $.64, CDE Dec 16 close about where it is now, it looks like PZG, despite the CDE hedge, could fall a lot if deal fails. Am I viewing correctly?
    Mar 17, 2015. 10:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream: What A Difference A Few Months Make [View article]
    DonPaul-

    Pardon the confusion. I was just trying to think trough what yield would be appropriate for the REIT and it seems like it should be the WIN bond yield plus a little more to compensate for the extra risk that he REIT shareholders have versus the WIN bondholders because the WIN bondholders have the ability to go after WINs assets and the REIT shareholders do not. Since the REIT has only one tenant, the REITs income is at risk the same as the WIN bondholders income is at risk. If WIN's business fails, neither the WIN bondholders nor the REIT will get paid. Therefore, the REITs yield should be at least as much as the WIN bonds yield.
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream: What A Difference A Few Months Make [View article]
    Gary419,

    In your example, post split/spin WIN div = $10, CS&L div = $48 for a total of $58. CS&L will pay WIN the remaining $12 in div for their 20%. It seems to me that WIN will not issue K-1s since WIN shares are for Windstream Holdings Inc which will own Windstream LLC. I could be wrong.
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Windstream: What A Difference A Few Months Make [View article]
    The REIT won't be valued by the market based on any multiples. Rather, it will be valued based on the dividend yield. Given the REIT will only have one tenant, it is essentially a Windstream corporate bond but without priority in liquidation. The REIT's risk is the same risk faced by Windstream's bond holders who currently require roughly 7.5% yield to compensate them for the risk. Without the liquidation priority, the REIT shareholders will likely require a slightly higher yield. Assuming a 9% yield with a $0.6 dividend, the 1 for 1 share price would be .6/.09= $6.7. That would value the remaining WIN business at $7.89-$6.7 = $1.19. Looks cheap given the resulting debt reduction.
    Feb 28, 2015. 02:17 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Long Idea For 2015: BNCCORP [View article]
    Chris,

    Thanks for the pick and for publishing your ideas and methods on SA. I have benefitted immensely from your writing. The readers are fortunate to get the perspective of someone who knows the difference between a market edge and pure speculation.

    There will always risk in an investment and timing is always a challenge. The readers who expect a guarantee with every pick may be better off in index funds. I am long GCVRZ with an amount equal to what I am willing to lose. If it doesn't work out, then its no big deal. Readers need to better educate themselves on position sizing and to determine if the idea is right for them.

    Please don't stop publishing your ideas because of some unappreciative readers.
    Dec 25, 2014. 12:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Boone Pickens: The U.S. Is Subsidizing China's Iraqi Oil - Why? [View article]
    Excellent article Michael. I have never understood why proponents of electric vehicles don't consider the environmental impacts associated with electricity generation, loses in the distribution grid, and the battery disposal. I believe our political system is perfectly aligned to prevent widespread adoption of natural gas for vehicles. The Democrats don't want to appear to be supporting a fossil fuel, even though fossil fuels are used to generate the electricity, and the Republicans don't want to hurt the interests of the large oil companies.
    Jun 12, 2013. 07:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sourcefire: Short-Lived Upsells Have Masked Decelerating Growth And Decline Of IPS [View article]
    Excellent, insightful and in depth article. Allow me to pile on and add that their Days Sales Outstanding are an astonishing 127 days. This suggests they are growing revenue by selling to customers with poor credit and offering them very liberal payment terms. This wouldn't be necessary if their products were competitive. Also, last quarter, their accounts receivable grew 2x revenue while they just met expectations. This implies they shaped demand late in the quarter by offering a fire sale to get to the expected number. This suggests demand is slowing.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wounded By Walgreen: Cardinal Is Still Healthy [View article]
    Got it. I was concerned the loss would reduce their OCF - but I see your point now. The working capital required to support the WAG contract is freed up to buy back shares.
    Apr 9, 2013. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wounded By Walgreen: Cardinal Is Still Healthy [View article]
    Insightful article Alan. Given the significant impact to working capital, is there a chance they could violate some debt covenants and be forced to re-finance with less favorable terms?
    Apr 9, 2013. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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