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Eduard Fischer

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  • Economic Reforms In India Likely To Stick This Time [View article]
    Mr. Singh has been in power for 8 years and his efforts at reform have been much too slow. India's infrastructure is a joke. Its industries cannot be competitive on the world market without a reliable power grid and the country does not have one, nor is such a thing on the horizon in the foreseeable future.
    Oct 3, 2012. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IMF Kills Aid To Greece: A Greek Default Is Europe's Day Of Reckoning [View article]
    "While Greece's exit from the euro might shock markets in the short term, it would hardly classify as a 'black swan' event."

    The question is can the highly leveraged and completely unregulated CDS market absorb the formal default of Greece. Remember 2008. It could be falling dominos all over again.
    Jul 23, 2012. 10:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Citadel's Griffin Says Germany Should Quit Euro [View article]
    I agree that Germany must exit the Euro sooner or later. Angela Merkal has said over and over that Germany will not share the debts of the rest of Europe through schemes like Eruo Bonds. Yet the boys club that is made up of most of the other European leaders keep thinking that she doesn't really mean it. This is after she stated again this week that debt sharing will never happen while she is alive. The majority of German people support her in this because they do not want to sell future generations into indenture. What part of "nein" is it that these guys do not understand?
    Jun 28, 2012. 08:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Sitting On The Threshold Of A New Golden Age, Part 2 [View article]
    Everything America has — everything — has been built up from the base of a largely publicly (government) funded education system that is now breaking down. There are, at last estimate, 3.7 million job vacancies in the US going unfilled because Americans are too uneducated to fill them.

    Many scientific breakthroughs, including the first computers, the internet, and GPS were the result of government funded R&D.

    Infrastructure in the US is crumbling, and if your country really embraces the Ayn Rand philosophy you espouse, you may soon be back in the dark ages.
    Jun 13, 2012. 08:25 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Modern Day Greek Depression And The Implications Of The Upcoming Elections In Greece [View article]
    If you just started really looking at Greece wait until you look at Spain and Italy. Spain has higher unemployment than Greece and a spectacularly collapsing property bubble and banking system. Italy, has one of the highest government debts in the world, and with its 10 year bond yields rising to over 6% this morning, could also soon be in crisis.
    Jun 12, 2012. 07:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Unavoidable U.S. Reality: The Upcoming Economic Collapse [View article]
    Interesting article James. It's apparent though that many commentators here don't seem to understand the point of SA; that is to present economic outlooks based on current trends, rather than to try to expound political solutions.

    I agree that the US (and world) economic crisis has gone beyond the point of no return. I have heard no realistic solutions. I agree with the Tea Party that the situation is desperate, but their simplistic solutions would unfortunately precipitate immediate economic collapse. Mr. Bernanke (a Republican) has been trying to make this point to Congress. The Democratic solution on the other hand is to continue trying to buy time until a miracle saves us. Neither plan is workable in the long term. I think you made these points well in your article.

    What I find most disconcerting about much, but not all, of the right wing in America is their lack of civility and unwillingness (or inability) to engage in intelligent debate. Witness that at least a couple of commentators here called you names. Such a decline in civility may signify a decline in civilization.
    Jun 12, 2012. 12:33 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow To Suffer 10% Decline [View article]
    Thank you for your reply. Actually I just used ocean shipping as an example. Trucking volume, rail traffic, air freight, and courier services are also considered bellwethers of the economy. As for unemployment, I would question the assumption that employment does not have much further to fall. The US has never entered a recession with this level of unemployment and the consequences are unknown. I believe they could be dire.
    Jun 8, 2012. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow To Suffer 10% Decline [View article]
    Congrats on your first article; I found it interesting and worthwhile.

    However I question your premise that shipping, airlines and retail would do well merely because oil and gas prices are lower. This is particularly relevant in the context of your article which forecasts a bear market in stocks and states that a that the chance of a recession is now more likely. These are all aspects of the economy that get hammered particularly hard during a recession. During the last recession cargo ships were at anchor for months, airline seats were unfilled, and many mall merchants went broke.
    Jun 7, 2012. 04:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is A Solution To The Eurozone Crisis [View article]
    "This program could buy five years of relative calm within which the weaker countries could seek to restructure their economies"

    Isn't this just kicking the can down the road again? Greece and Southern Italy are not Ireland; there the hard working, largely honest, populace were screwed by their bankers; the economy there will eventually recover. Greece and Italy are different; aspects of these societies are basically beyond the rule of law; tax evasion, bribery, and corruption are rampant. Their economies cannot recover in this social climate. Eurobonds will not change this.

    Germans are realists. There is no way they are going to sell their children and grandchildren into indenture through Eurobonds to buy another short lived calm.

    This Eurobonds thing is akin to your family demanding that you guarantee all their credit cards so that they can keep their lifestyles, even when you know that some of them have criminal pasts (remember that Greece cooked the books to get into the EU).

    I don't see any easy way out of this Euro mess for anyone.
    May 31, 2012. 11:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eurozone Debt Crisis: 4 Possible Outcomes [View article]
    I do not know what the outcome in the Euro crisis will be; I only know what will not happen: that is eurobonds and fiscal union. There is no way the Germans (or the Austrians, Dutch, or Finns) are going sell their children and grandchildren into indenture to the less productive nations of Europe.

    Greece and Southern Italy are not just failed economies, they are failing societies, aspects of which are outside the rule of law and the standards of a modern functional civilization. Germany does not want to be perceived as being the bully of Europe once again so it is not about to try to impose its cultural and legal standards on other countries. The only other option is to eventually let the failed societies fail.
    May 30, 2012. 11:28 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Euro's Next Fall: Will It Be Because The Germans Threaten To Leave? [View article]
    A German exit from the Euro would be costly for everyone. But once Eurobonds were being issued there would be little possibility of a German exit. Future generations of Germans would basically be indentured laborers for their less productive neighbors. I don't think that they are going to go for that.
    May 29, 2012. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece: The Unvarnished Truth [View article]
    The Greeks got into the EU by cooking their books (with some help from Goldman Sachs). Reminds me of that trick they pulled with a wooden horse some years back. Yes, once they are within the gates it is hard to get them out until the place is a ruin.
    May 28, 2012. 03:05 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EU Summit Dinner Menu: Indigestion [View article]
    "a larger stick is required for those who still fall short of objectives"

    What are you going to do? Send Euro Police to Greece to get them to pay their taxes? Not a possibility.

    Corruption, bribery and tax evasion are rampant in Greece. It doesn't just have a financial problem; it has a moral problem. Eurobonds are not going to solve that.
    May 23, 2012. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How The U.S. Is Quickly Becoming A Third World Country (Part 2) [View article]
    Mr. Hera's point concerns where the US is headed, and I think that he may not be far off. 1% of the US adult population is in prisons, a figure much higher than any other country in the world, and even much higher than that of the Soviet Union in the days of the Gulag. Meanwhile corporate malfeasance in the US, like that which caused the worldwide financial meltdown in 08, goes unpunished, and for the most part, even unregulated.

    One aspect that Mr. Hera did not touch upon is the dismal state of US infrastructure. The deterioration of the public education system in the US is particularly concerning. There are already many job vacancies in the US that cannot be filled because there are no workers qualified to fill them.

    As countries like China pour massive amounts of capital into creating infrastructure and the US does not, the US will inevitably be left behind.
    Dec 16, 2011. 09:31 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Casting A Negative Light On Bullish Thanksgiving Weekend Figures [View article]
    Well written little observation Joe. America's loss of dignity was certainly on display during Friday and it was disconcerting.
    Nov 29, 2011. 11:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment