Long only, growth, momentum
Long only, growth, momentum
Contributor since: 2012
Company: EDVA
I really think you are missing the mark but you are entitled to your opinions. The two companies that you are "bearish" about are two companies that offer very easy treatment and diagnostic tools and should be at the forefront of some of the spending that is applicable in the new budget.
The Hemopurifier makes complete scientific sense and with training is quite easy to administer. It is an adjunct treatment regimen that can be used for ebola and numerous other dreadful diseases where viral load reduction is critical. Not sure what about that you don't understand? You focus almost entirely on dilution over a decade for a company that has tried to get what certainly appears to be a valid, game-changing and critically needed product into the hands of the medical treatment community for a long time. That doesn't make the company a scam or any number of other words you may ascribe to them, it makes them like most tiny companies in America with little voice trying to compete and be heard in a land of giants where money rules. You fail to mention all of the agencies that by your notion Aethlon must have "deceived." These are some of the biggest organizations there are, the Department of Defense being but one.
As for SIMH, where is the recognition that by the company's own admission their sales have skyrocketed as a result of the recent attention brought on by ebola (and that is not anything to be ashamed about if you are the little guy-most of us will take whatever leg up to get our products noticed that we can)? We will have an opportunity to see at least some of those results when next quarter's earnings are released. You mention nothing about the distribution agreement they signed yesterday with Henry Schein Inc. That seems like a pretty significant oversight given the opportunity inherent in that association. Perhaps it is their belief, as it is with companies the world over, that as their product sales increase they will be able to pay down their debt with something other than more dilution. It sure seems like that is where they are headed.
You don't have many alternatives if you are trying to survive, advance technology and get noticed. For an OTC stock 300M shares outstanding isn't so disconcerting. They are reportedly on the cusp of some amazing advancements and while I may not agree with how you positioned your story I do believe Aethlon must continue to follow through now and over the next six months and I believe they owe it to investors to begin to provide some of their commercialization analysis. I don't think they have fooled the Department of Defense by the way, there are some pretty intelligent folks there who keep renewing their contract with Aethlon based on predetermined milestones.
I understand your points and while the "pattern" you detail may be disconcerting to some this is pretty clearly a disruptive technology and one that has been hard for Aethlon to get "front and center" attention for. The fact that they try to get noticed during infectious disease outbreaks is quite understandable actually. In this country we often need a train wreck to notice anything. While it is easy to take a pot shots at the kind of headlines they use in what they release, the underlying theme to all of them, whether Dengue, H1N1, Ebola, HIV, Sepsis, Cancer, etc. is: THE REDUCTION OF VIRAL LOAD. You are paying attention to the headline but the company's focus is viral load reduction no matter what the disease.
I do think it is legitimate to ask the company to continue to "put up or shut up" but they have to be recognized for offering their product in situations where if you were a scam you would avoid. The Nebraska Medical Center is a perfect example, as is Frankfurt University Hospital. If you are trying to scam people with a fraudulent product you don't send it to be utilized on dying patients (which they did for Mawanda in Frankfurt and they offered for Salia in Nebraska) thus creating the near certainty that you will be exposed (and the scam that you more than not infer) and the jig, once and for all, will be up.
As to Bigsid55's comment, one of the reasons that Aethlon may not be sending (yet) the Hemopurifier to West Africa is that proper administration needs to be guaranteed. If it is not you could get unfavorable outcomes that are no fault of the Hemopurifier but that Aethlon would have to live with and which could well impact its ability to advance to FDA approval. I suspect we will see it shipped near term to places where training is provided and where proper administration is assured. More places like the hospital in Frankfurt in other words.
Nice article. This stock will have its day again and before this year is out in my view. The company has been incredibly silent of late and if the short hoard wants to lull themselves into believing that PLUG is sitting on its hands (and its cash) then so be it. I apply the Clintonian question to PLUG as it sits today. Is PLUG better off now than it was when it was sitting at $11.72 in March? You bet your arse! We are only seeing the first wave of adoption people. When companies like Walmart, Kroger, BMW, VW and Hyundai are turning to PLUG it won't be long before other, lesser known yet sizable entities step forward. Every reasonably intelligent business person sitting in a boardroom knows this - it is just simple, follow the leader, business strategy. The big short happened here and is OVER! People will be able to make a couple of bucks here and there on the short side opportunistically as PLUG continues to grow but Andrew Left has left the building and that nonsense isn't coming back. Eventually, The Street will have to change the wording on its "sell rating" to actually reflect current events. Just sloppy BS from a company that doesn't update its research.
Of course they lowered it. The share increase warranted that and Cowen has been uber conservative with price targets. PLUG has blown through Cowen's past price targets repeatedly. They have raised money in order to stay at the forefront of an emerging space, period. If they didn't they would be lost in the shuffle in short order by better funded companies. Their edge is that they have a head start and they not only have to keep it they need to enter a couple of other verticals and expand geographically which is what we are seeing with China and likely backup power systems for telecom and so on. I do think PLUG will play a role at some point in the automotive business but it will be for green transport vehicles that do not stress quick get up and go but rather MPG's and all that go along with that.
Agree with the overall sentiment and I appreciate you putting your thoughts down. I saw a ridiculous article a day or two ago again putting forth a thesis which PLUG is not attempting to entertain, i.e. PLUG investors are counting on the car industry for a massive move in the stock (which if they are after PLUG has stated that the passenger car market is not a focus then they are way off) and that move is unlikely to come because of inefficiencies in fuel cells so therefore PLUG's current and future valuation are suspect. PLUG can generate billions from its current market focus! Not sure when folks will realize that but I suspect it will be when the stock surges past $8-9 again. It won't be that long in coming either.
Good for you...I will be interested in hearing about it.
I completely disagree but you are entitled to your opinion.
Maybe but I think people are going to be eating a lot of crow given all of the wildly negative piling on that has taken place since the offering. PLUG has not said a thing which is disturbing to some but should signal to others that the company isn't all that worried about what is to come. At the end of the day I'd rather have my CEO cutting deals to move the company forward than responding to the daily diatribe. We'll see soon enough where this story is headed.
Whatever...you have too much time on your hands dude.
"And weirdly enough I think I have not lost a dime even once"
Your post would hardly be worth it if said you had! Quite a few people have made money on Plug's progression as well. It's not about giving people hope. It is about telling the emerging story rather than succumbing to the relentless attempts to paint PLUG with an old brush.
It appears as though thestreet.com may have been responding to my article yesterday when they state their bit about VW around minute-7 of the 4/21 investor update. Lest anyone be moved by that (for which there was never announcement, PR or the like which would be odd for PLUG) please go to minute-19 of the same call where Andy is asked a question by Matt (not sure where he was from) about the average size of the GenKey deals beyond Wal-Mart (Andy says $6-10M). Andy further states "we have another GenKey order for a customer that we can't announce yet." Hmm...now that seems to be in keeping with the order we have been waiting to hear about and is consistent with his previously stated inability to announce. In any case it appears that even Cramer gets that Plug is oversold here.
I will be happy to revisit your comments at a later date. Until Plug speaks you can fill the vacuum with anything you want as you no doubt understand.
As I've said here and in other forums, if you want to pick at Plug there is much to find. Most all of it will be in the rear view mirror however. To think that Plug is somehow worth less today than it was on March 10th is ludicrous. I'm looking forward to upcoming announcements detailing what they will do with the $100M more in cash than they had on March 10th. I am looking forward to what we will see next from the ReliOn integration and I am looking forward to new orders and Asia expansion, both of which are coming. I appreciate the comments from the poster from overseas about staying focused on the core business. That has been exactly my point. There are billions to be gained from that focus alone. When they do enter another market they will do so by purchasing a company with considerable market share that will be bolstered by their current technology.
As with most things it is only fair to wait for the full story to come out. You see the raise, which was not telegraphed, and want everyone to believe it was some nefarious plot aimed at damaging shareholders. I doubt it, and further believe we will find out as soon as Plug is able to legally detail what is going on that there was a viable and urgent need for those funds. It sets up perfectly for people who want to castigate Plug and Management because we only have half the story. Have your fun now is all I can say.
Ok, have it your way. I'm waiting for an announcement of a North American automaker.
Clever...I like it.
Agree, and thanks for your comments. The U.S. Military would certainly make sense.
I was making a point regarding a period of reversal in early March after an announced raise...followed by the Citron nonsense. You have to read it in order to understand the context. Thanks.
No, they did not. If you heard the conference call the other day Andy stated that he could not announce it yet. All we know is that there is a major GenKey deal with a NA automaker. We do not know the automaker's name and we do not know any deal specifics. I also would not classify VW as a NA automaker.
I'm not an expert on battery engineering or performance. I'm assuming that Plug may address the passenger car market down the road but my point was that there are tens of billions of dollars outside of that market that Plug is prepared to compete for.
You clearly miss the point. Plug's existence prior to the past six months was not one that paralleled significant adoption from big business, a necessary ingredient for success. I stand by my price and valuation targets. No one would have believed what I had to say in January either.
I appreciate the comments Orchids. It seems quite logical that IGXT would be bought out and I think there may be some level of leverage that could be used by a suitor during this waiting/resubmission period. One interesting near term thing will be the class designation of the resubmission. It would be terrific to see this back up for consideration by mid-year but you never know.
Thanks for your comment Don. I would have been and am persuaded by them also. Best to you as well and thank you again for expressing your thoughts here.
No question about it but only those who are willfully ignorant about what appears to be a significant move toward adoption of PLUG products on the part of many major companies are naysayers here. I see plenty of backward looking data points used as current factoids which is clearly inappropriate in assessing what this company is all about. They surely need to translate orders to revenue (everyone gets that or should) but I think anyone willing to guide for all quarters as early as March 13, 2014 is pretty confident in the kind of year they are having. I see major opportunity here and am investing. Whether anyone follows suit is their own business and once again should be made on the basis of their own due diligence not on anything we say or do. Thanks for your comment.
Agree that the backslapping was a bit frothy in the aftermath of the judge's order. You make some very good points here. It was predictable that "oppressed" longs would sell. And you are right that they helped the short cause. I think the appeal is a joke and is no more than a delay. Extremely cheap here in my opinion. Good article.
Interesting stuff Jonathan. I really haven't studied DSS at length but from the little I have reviewed I think they have a good shot in their case against FB. The recent suit against Apple caused a spike but until agreements are made and details are able to be reviewed/verified it is hard for most of these stocks to hold significant gains.
Hello Jonathan,
I have been watching this stock in my personal portfolio (I invest with others in the IP space) for quite some time and I think you are right that it has significant potential. People have often been wrong when it comes to trying to time stocks that are engaged in medical processes but it sure seems that ROSG is well positioned for 2014 to be a different kind of year for the company. Thanks for your article.
Can't argue with the fact that Vringo has been dead money for a while and indeed each announcement of relatively positive news is met by VRNG not holding any gains. We sold down our position significantly in late August but have now bought back to nearly 80% of the previous level. What the market wants is something quantifiable as you suggest and intelligent people can disagree about how soon that may be coming. The December 17 date for a ruling in Germany is surely significant on the ZTE front. While the company communication may be less than desired there is obviously considerable motivation there to achieve the kind of results all investors desire. If a significant settlement is dropped on us any perceived negligence to telegraph or hand hold will be forgiven.
I appreciate that you take the time to write first and foremost, so thank you for that. Anything can happen here and sure, this could go parabolic as you say but there is a long way between now and whatever recovery one thinks DSS may achieve. The problem with Patent investments in general is that the retail investor community is not sophisticated enough where these cases are concerned. For example, investors react as though they have never seen a MSJ before when one is filed in any case - the reality is they should be expected in every case! Filing a petition for review with the PTAB is much the same thing. Since it is and will be available as an avenue to many defendants, it should be expected and reviews should be expected since the requirements to get a review aren't all that stringent (one claim in question). My point here is that until this investor class becomes more savvy people will be able to manipulate events which are commonplace in any case. This reality makes this a veritable minefield for investors to have to wade through and while there can be great gains, they can be erased in an instant and it won't necessarily be because the underlying viability of the investment has changed in any significant way...just the perception of that investment by those who actually control the stock.
Very well done Natty!
My positions on these stocks has never been about the folks who are day trading. If people can't wait or average down until August 22nd I don't have a lot of sympathy for that. The Markman is two months away and while it appears Thom Kidrin may have misjudged his finance partner the facts of the case are as they were. There are two reasons the stock was not going to a dollar as it stood given a June 27th date. 1) The stock was heavily shorted by said finance partner and 2) People completely misunderstood the nature of continuing to ask for r/s authority - so much so that TK had to update the proxy to spell it out more clearly. You can argue with me all you want but lets see how this turns out post Markman. I agree with the unpredictable sentiment, absolutely, but what matters to me and what I place money on is how I think it will likely end not every bend in the road. If it goes down I think investors should average down as I plan to. If Kidrin steps in and can do something to clean it up pre-Markman no doubt shareholders would welcome and respect that, plain and simple.