Edward Harrison

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

I have to be honest. It didn't occur to me Seeking Alpha would post this as an investment piece (if at all). I did not write it as an investment piece but more of a personal piece on my blog - and seeking Alpha has permission to re-post all of my articles.

The spurned lover comment (I used to be an ardent Apple fan and thought Apple was going to be above board) seems on the mark here (he said sheepishly).

That said, I might have something slightly more substantive to say about strategy - time permitting - given the beating I am taking here in the comments.

On Oct 15 10:15 AM winindthedust wrote:

> Good for you Ed. Unfortunately, this article in no way helps investors.
>
>
> If your beef is that Apple didn't accept Google Voice, I'm with you...
> however, you are ignoring the fact that you over 15,000 other Apps
> to CHOOSE from. No other platform even comes close. Once Android
> has the Apps, then we'll see.
>
> My recommendation to you: iPhone like your wife and be happy. Once
> Android gets established, then check it out.
>
> As far as Apple's real reason for "holding" Google Voice in purgatory...
> they will eventually approve it. However, they are and will be introducing
> the same features within Apple's MobileMe service. Apple would be
> foolish to allow GV siphon off people from MobileMe enhancements
> soon to be introduced.
>
> Last, GV works fine as a Web App. Sure, no local data stored on
> the phone, but it still works nonetheless. And since GV depends
> on an internet connection- whether or not it's a native App or a
> Web App makes little difference to me at this point.
>
> That brings me to another point: BESIDES the tens of thousands of
> native Apps out there for iPhone... how about the burgeoning WebApps,
> which are completely un-policed, that are becoming available?

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

LOL. That's hilarious. Those reports were NOT fantasy. Don't ask me why I stuck with Windows Mobile for so long. I have escaped the imprisonment now!


On Oct 15 08:25 AM T_ wrote:

> A former windows mobile user??? I thought those reports were simply
> fantasy... Dude, having been a windows mobile user disqualifies
> you from having an opinion on which product is best! The fact you
> stuck with a loser platform for as long as you did, puts into question
> whether you have any idea :)

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

Dialectical, I will have to write up a post on this issue. The core of the issue is whether the phone companies' network are dumb pipes or whether they have the right to 'control' traffic. Indeed, this is a complicated issue.

But the overriding concern from an antitrust perspective has to be the limited number of broadband network providers in any jurisdiction. The telcos and cable operators have de facto monopoly power in that only one or two providers are available in most areas. The question then becomes, given this power, how should the companies behave/be forced to behave. This is the same question that was at stake with Microsoft and operating systems.

I believe the telcos networks have to be controlled as dumb pipes in the way utilities are. I pay AT&T to provide me network access, not to provide me services that use that access. This is true for cell phone networks as much as it is for internet connections.

Regulators understood this with the old AT&T. Yet, AT&T continued to abuse its market position as the communications landscape changed, so it was broken up. Those same difficulties have not gone away and regulators must be vigilant both in regards to AT&T in this case and Apple regarding cellphone handsets.


On Oct 14 06:52 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

> You may be right about some of the problems with protecting your
> moat, but I want to focus on a more specific issue. Do you really
> think it is anti-competitive for a phone company to not want (and
> try to prevent) folks calling other people using their communication
> network without paying for it? I think the internet should be free
> as much as the next techno geek, but if I sat outside your home and
> used your bandwidth for free to do all my Netflix streaming, wouldn't
> you feel I was using something of yours which you were renting and
> that I was getting for free? We are now at a place where technology
> creates many of these free holes and exploits. Just because Google
> CAN write an app that allows me to call for free over the internet,
> does that mean others SHOULD be allowed to do so. To call AT&T's
> attempt to protect the use of their network "anti-competitive" oversimplifies
> a complex issue that the courts will ultimately be sorting out for
> years.
>
> I'd love to hear your thoughts about this.
>
> On Oct 14 05:52 PM Edward Harrison wrote:

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

Yes you can talk and use the Net.

I bought my phone (G1) and switchd from AT&T to T-mobile to do so. I immediately rooted the phone (jailbreak equivalent) and installed CynagenMod to give me more flexibility than a locked down phone requires (I need to use the phone with a Vodafone SIM card in Europe for one). I have since used it for a month and I would say I am generally happy.

That said, my wife's new iPhone 3GS is faster and the virtual keyboard is significantly more accurate. This G1 phone does pretty much everything I need but from a usability standpoint it lags the iPhone IMO.

The earlier comment about what open-source really is was a good one because it points to why Android could fail: "balkanasation." Because hardware manufacturers can change the code of the OS, this means different Android forks will develop, which may create problems for developers in terms of compatibility. Its early days right now so we'll see how this develops.

Google's deal with Verizon promises to be a signpost of what the future holds.


On Oct 14 04:07 PM GSlusher wrote:

> A question for the author, if you're using your Android phone on
> Sprint or Verizon: If you're on a call, can you access the internet
> or send/receive email at the same time, without quitting the call?

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

That's a fair comment and a better statement of fact. I stand corrected.


On Oct 14 03:46 PM jmmx wrote:

> I think that some people who praise that "Android is an open-source
> software system" do not fully understand what that means. It appears
> that some people believe that it is easier for developers to program
> or "understand" because it is open source.
>
> This is not true. Most developers of applications want:
> 1- A well-documented, logical, development language,
> 2 -An easy to use, development environment (i.e. good tools),
>
> Apple provides this. Their SDK (dev environment) is noted as being
> superlative. I have heard that Android also has a good environment
> but would be unable to judge personally how the two compare.
>
> Open-source means that the actual code for the OS itself is open
> and available for both improving (and submitting improvements back
> to Google) and also available for "tinkering under the hood" - i.e.
> changing the OS itself.
>
> This means that a handset mfg can actually change the basic operating
> system to suit its needs. This is powerful. It sounds cool, but doing
> so has its drawbacks. Most importantly is the fact that if you significantly
> change the OS then all applications written for the "Vanilla-Android"
> may no longer work with your version - or they may work but differently
> from how the developers intended. This is definitely NOT GOOD. Developers
> most assuredly do not want to develop special code for device X.
>
>
> So- having open-source is of little import to Android as a development
> system.

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

And for the record, I have been a fan of Apple for nearly 20 years, having used a Mac from the mid-1980s on and bought at least 6 or 7 iPods and iPhones. I am well aware of the quality of their products and ease o use.

But, it is amazing how defensive the Apple people are to this post. The fact is Apple has a chosen strategy that is anti-open source. It failed in the 1990s for them but was a success for Microsoft. But, we have to recognize that Apple wants a largely closed system so that it can control things. There are lots of arguments why one might do this (design or technology integrity for one). But, right now, Apple has crossed the line into anti-competitive activity.

Whether Google has the goods is another story - and have been plenty 'evil' themselves in other regards. As one commenter noted, it's easy to gain ground when you start from zero. But Android is a worthy competitor. Let's see how it develops.

Don't shoot the messenger.

Why Android Is Gaining Ground on Apple

You're right that I would try them out if I were open-minded. For brevity sake, I said I dismissed them out of hand but I did the research and decided that the phones don't have the features I want. In the end, the biggest reason not to go with them is fear of getting sucked into something that later ceases to be interoperable with new platforms (lack of backward compatibility support)

As for Apple, I own an iPod, use iTunes and we have two iPhones. Their products are wonderful. But, Jobs is using the same tactics he used when he was CEO last time - namely protecting his moat by limiting others from integrating fully. Last time he lost the market share battle. This time he is winning it and, as Microsoft has shown, he can continue to win for a long time.

I just think Apple is being anti-competitive with Skype over Google and trying to keep the Palm Pre from syncing with iTunes. Eventually, this sort of thing will be ruled on by the FTC.


On Oct 14 12:05 PM CGP wrote:

> the AAPL camp is quite defensive...
>
> Looks like a replay of the Apple-PC battle for the desktop; open
> source vs. managed source, interesting to see who "wins" this time
>
>
> ....boo hoo for PALM & Nokia didn't even get a look (if you were
> open minded I would've thought you'd at least try it out)
>
> ......race not even close to the backstretch, more like just out
> of the gate......look to LTE & Wimax as the quarter pole