Investor, Trader and commentator with both top-down focus for futures trading, and an interest in bottom-up equities investment ideas.“OFTEN IN DOUBT, BUT SOMETIMES RIGHT”

Our ideas are based upon a perceived structure to speculative activities – which we characterize as falling within four groups: trend, contrarian, arbitrage and expert-based. Trends are profitable for the momentum and trend player. At some point, Contrarians have their moment in the sun and those who are “lucky” enough to come in, or have somehow timed their speculations successfully, make their money by fading the aging trend. About the same time, sometimes an “arbitrage”, or re-pricing opportunity, is detected, based upon an assertion of an over-, or under-, valuation, or prices under, or above, historical mean prices and multiples, or an evaluation of an anticipated regulatory or corporate event. Eventually, “experts” and knowledge specialists, who waited for some confirmation, based upon research or some “signal” in quarterly, periodic or fundamental indicators, begin to evaluate the opportunity and publicize their opinions and findings, confirming the emergence of what evolves into a new trend. This new trend then picks up steam. It could emerge into a cyclical rise towards a “high” or decline towards a “low”, culminating in a manic period or tipping point to be followed by a counter-cycle and/or reaction enjoyed by the next contrarians, and so on and so on.