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Edward Vranic, CFA  

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  • Akers Biosciences Projects Explosive Growth From Its Monopoly Heparin Allergy Test [View article]
    I usually respond to comments within 24 hours. Today I was unable to give timely responses.
    May 22, 2015. 01:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Akers Biosciences Projects Explosive Growth From Its Monopoly Heparin Allergy Test [View article]
    Thanks Goran for your thoughts. Your calculation is about in line to my market estimate - $200 to $400 million assuming a high market penetration for the U.S. Profit wise, it's a little early to tell - I know they mentioned that one recent quarter's gross margin was 71% which they admitted was on the high end. I would be more comfortable using a 50 to 60% margin, but your overall idea still stands.

    The key is to become cash flow positive before the cash runs out. Which is $7 million in revenue per year, not exactly an insurmountable task at this stage. With at least two year's worth of cash (unless they decide to pump a lot into R&D) I don's see any need to dilute, ever, which means the share float will remain at 5 to 6 million. Unless some corporate transaction were to take place. I see a buyout scenario as a likely one too.

    The other products - I see them as nice to haves and needed health care and humanitarian initiatives - but from an investment perspective, you know how it is with Wall Street. They care about what the FDA has to say and then the EU a distant second. AKER won't be able to really excite the market with a malaria test until well after the revenues have been booked. And by that time if the PIFA test goes the way we hope it does, the stock will have already made us a fortune.
    May 22, 2015. 12:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Giga-Tronics Provides Upside Potential [View article]
    How did your VLTC short go?

    It's like swimming upstream with you. You bash one of my picks, take your huge loss then when you have something to say about one of my picks (CAPN) you take another huge hit to your portfolio. Good job.
    May 19, 2015. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Giga-Tronics Provides Upside Potential [View article]
    $18 million in sales, 38% revenue growth and $12 million market cap (before the rise after hours) with a high tech solution to the defense industry. Looks like this one is headed up.
    May 19, 2015. 01:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight Remains A Strong Opportunity With A Price Target Of $30 After Reporting Record Q1 Results [View article]
    I believe within a year. Especially if the market in general and health care stocks in particular remain at very high valuations.
    May 19, 2015. 01:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight Poaches Boston Scientific Executive To Manage Exceptional Manufacturing Growth [View article]
    I discussed competitors in my first article on EYES. Pixium's stock is valued more cheaply, but they are also behind EYES in terms of product development and regulatory approvals.
    May 19, 2015. 01:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight Poaches Boston Scientific Executive To Manage Exceptional Manufacturing Growth [View article]
    Yes, which is in line with what the company estimated on their conference call. I would not worry about that too much. Let's not forget Alfred Mann owns a third of this company. I think he will be able to pony up the money needed to get to profitability if the company continues to demonstrate these improved results.
    May 13, 2015. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FXCM: Leucadia's 10-Q Values FXCM At 89 Cents Per Share, 55% Downside To The Stock [View article]
    Solid article. I'm surprised that I'm the first comment and that there hasn't been a whole bunch of longs yapping about how "wrong" your facts are and that FXCM is really worth $17 per share or that Schwab plans to buy FXCM out for $5+. I guess all the retail day traders gave up as FXCM seeps further and further below $2.
    May 13, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra7 Will Be A $50 Stock By 2020 Unless It Gets Bought Out Before Then [View instapost]
    Oh yes, but my preference is purely from a liquidity perspective. The shares hold the exact same value, adjusting for exchange rate fluctuations.
    May 8, 2015. 09:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Resources Secures Profitable Growth As It Purchases One Of Its Customers [View article]
    I think a lot of the issues are around this being a "Chinese stock". Some people in the market refuse to believe anything GURE says because of accusations made 4 years ago by shorts looking to profit. I think GURE will remain undervalued until they start giving shareholders back cash in dividends or a serious stock buy back, proving that this is a legit company beyond any doubts. But at this point it's a growth stock with a new gas discovery, it makes a lot of sense to invest its free cash into the business. So it could be a while, but up is still up. Basically everyone who purchased shares this year with the exception of people who bought yesterday morning are making money on this play.
    May 8, 2015. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gulf Resources Secures Profitable Growth As It Purchases One Of Its Customers [View article]
    Agreed. Nice to see it finally starting to realize its value.
    May 7, 2015. 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra7 Will Be A $50 Stock By 2020 Unless It Gets Bought Out Before Then [View instapost]
    Thanks!

    I don't think there should be a big difference as a long term hold, other than changes in exchange rate. If/when Spectra7 lists on the NASDAQ, the SPVNF symbol will get replaced and SEV.V will remain unchanged.

    A concern right now for investors who have access to SEV.V and SPVNF is which one to use given current exchange rates. I have SEV.V and I would recommend buying that one if one can because it is the much more liquid symbol. Someone who can only buy SPVNF may be overpaying a bit compared to SEV.V and the USD/CAD exchange rate simply because of its minimal liquidity.
    May 6, 2015. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight Poaches Boston Scientific Executive To Manage Exceptional Manufacturing Growth [View article]
    well said, sir.
    May 5, 2015. 09:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Spectra7 Will Be A $50 Stock By 2020 Unless It Gets Bought Out Before Then [View instapost]
    The release on May 4th relates to the fulfilling of a financing deal. It blindsided me as well since I thought the cancellation of the loan agreement meant the company wasn't looking for cash. However, this deal is better than the loan (the loan had 60 cent warrants attached to it). I'm not happy with the dilution, but the fact that it got filled so quickly shows that the company is in high demand. Now they can use that cash for expansion or further product development.

    I have all my shares, about 60K. I hold SEV.V as opposed to the seldom traded SPVNF.
    May 5, 2015. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Second Sight Poaches Boston Scientific Executive To Manage Exceptional Manufacturing Growth [View article]
    You're welcome! Not everybody will like EYES story...and not everybody has to invest in it. But shorting it? I don't understand that strategy. The market cap is less than $500 million and there are a lot of health care stocks priced in the billions that make better shorts than EYES. Some people just don't like the technology as I have dealt with in the comment sections of my prior articles. But at $150K per implant, EYES only has to succeed in providing sight to a small percentage of those who are totally blind to become profitable.

    Short selling IPO lock-ups is another one of those "blind short" strategies which applies a basic rule to all stocks in a stereotypical fashion without looking at the individual situation:

    "Short all IPOs before their lockups"
    "Short all small cap stocks that double on no news" --> didn't work well for VLTC shorts
    "Short all Chinese stocks, they're scams"
    "Short all stocks that do a reverse split"

    Sometimes these rules work, and sometimes they don't. You can use these rules to try to screen for potential shorts, but everyone should do their due diligence on each stock's individual situation.
    May 4, 2015. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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