Seeking Alpha

Efsinvestment  

View Efsinvestment's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    There formula is not the best, but your intentions are not that good either. Apparently you have no idea about Apple's market beating earnings:

    data.cnbc.com/quotes/A...
    "AAPL reported 2nd qtr 2011 earnings of $6.40 per share on 4/20/11. This beat the $5.37 consensus of the 48 analysts covering the company."

    3 months ago expectations were much lower than the actual facts.

    There is $1 difference between the estimates and actual profits. That makes a large difference for me. Maybe not for shorters :)
    Jun 13, 2011. 08:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    3 months ago trailing P/E ratio was 20, and forward P/E ratio was 15.
    Jun 13, 2011. 06:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Feel free to do your own estimations. I like the power of simplicity.
    Jun 13, 2011. 06:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    I am actually making an extremely conservative assumption of - 0 -growth after 5 years. It is normal that my target price is slightly lower than that of Morningstar.
    Jun 13, 2011. 06:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    The above examples show that in 2006, both Apple and Cisco was fairly priced for an annualized EPS growth rate of 30%. However, Apple beat the analyst estimates with a whopping growth rate of 57.56%, whereas Cisco disappointed the shareholders with a much lower EPS growth rate of 8.86%.
    Result: Apple returned 39% annually, whereas Cisco’s annual return was -4.47%.
    Jun 12, 2011. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Hello there, it is quite hard to perform back-testing with the discounted future returns, since it is a dynamic estimation of fair value which needs to be continuously updated. However, the O-Metrix ranking methodology works like a magic. See my article, here:
    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    1) Apple (AAPL)

    P/E = 30.8 (in 2006)
    Yield = 0 (in 2006)
    Annualized EPS Growth = 57.56
    O-Metrix Score = 9.34
    Annualized Return = 39.04

    2) Cisco (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)

    P/E = 28.7 (in 2006)
    Yield = 0 (in 2006)
    Annualized EPS Growth = 8.86
    O-Metrix Score = 1.54
    Annualized Return = -4.47
    Jun 12, 2011. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    There is always manipulation at the options' strike prices. I think the big boys will keep the stocks around $350 until the next option expiration date.
    Jun 12, 2011. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    I do not have any Apple holdings yet, but I will buy some from these prices, as soon as, I get my next paycheck.
    Jun 12, 2011. 11:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Feel free to use whichever model, you want to. Choose the numbers you want, as you wish. This is my model. I like the power of simplicity. I explicitly state all the parameters, including discount rate (11%), as well as mean growth estimates (17.2%). I was bearish of Apple when it was trading at $360 with ttm P/E ratio of 20.
    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    However, currently the stock looks attractively valued.
    Jun 12, 2011. 11:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Thanks Phillips. I also used to speculate, trying to figure out the direction in soon future, the next day, or even the next hour. However, it is not only time consuming, but also useless. Investors are destined to be winners in the long-term if they choose the right stock at the right price. Others? 95% looses. Unless you are among top 5%, you cannot win the gamble.
    Jun 12, 2011. 10:56 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Nothings holds up in the short run. My expectations is for the long-term.
    Jun 12, 2011. 10:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Do the research yourself. For all of my investment decisions, I use 3 to 5 parameters, and my returns have always been fabulous so far.

    Profits: Can not stop growing
    P/E ratio: Reasonable.
    Dividend: Not Yet. Maybe in future.
    Growth: Excellent.

    That is it. I do not need the rest. If you do, go and do your own research instead of wasting your time along with mine.
    Jun 12, 2011. 08:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    To ldrjuezxjplpufdes,

    Based on your previous comments on Apple, I just noticed your problem. Good luck with Apple shorts. You will desperately need it at some point.
    Jun 12, 2011. 07:22 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    If Apple was making the same profits, having the same growth expectations, it will be the same target price --no matter whether there is a mention of iPhone or not. What exactly is your problem?
    Jun 12, 2011. 07:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has 30% Upside Potential [View article]
    Agreed. I regularly check hedge fund portfolios. Many prominent funds purchased Apple shares in the last quarter.
    Jun 12, 2011. 07:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Efsinvestment
COMMENTS STATS
1,596 Comments
1,681 Likes