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Efsinvestment.com website offers simple do-it-yourself type of investment ideas. You can download excel files that can easily calculate the Fair Value of a stock, along with O-Metrix score and Margin of Safety. Investment philosophy is to first determine the maximum loss, and invest... More
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EcoFinStat Research & Training
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EFS Investment Research & Training
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  • Apple: Earnings Estimate

    Time Series Decomposition for APPLE (AAPL) EPS

    Multiplicative Model

    Data APPLE EPS

    Length 21

    NMissing 2

    Fitted Trend Equation: Yt = -1.598 + 0.626*t

    Seasonal Indices

    Period Index

    1 1.18481

    2 0.96443

    3 0.85607

    4 0.99468

    Accuracy Measures

    MAPE 25.9107

    MAD 1.1819

    MSD 2.0617

    Forecasts

    Period Forecast

    2013 Q2 11.7509

    2013 Q3 10.9669

    2013 Q4 13.3658

    2014 Q1 16.6628

    (click to enlarge)

    Source for all charts: Author.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Tags: AAPL, Long Ideas
    Apr 23 2:25 PM | Link | Comment!
  • AT&T Chart


    A head and shoulder? Wait and see....
    Tags: T
    Jun 17 4:03 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fair Value Estimation - Technology Companies
    Fair Value Estimates - Technology Companies

    1) Intel has 60% Upside Potential
    2) Apple has 30% Upside Potential 
    3) Cisco has 50% Upside Potential
    Jun 13 6:58 AM | Link | Comment!
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