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Send Message website offers simple do-it-yourself type of investment ideas. You can download excel files that can easily calculate the Fair Value of a stock, along with O-Metrix score and Margin of Safety. Investment philosophy is to first determine the maximum loss, and invest... More
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  • Apple: Earnings Estimate

    Time Series Decomposition for APPLE (AAPL) EPS

    Multiplicative Model

    Data APPLE EPS

    Length 21

    NMissing 2

    Fitted Trend Equation: Yt = -1.598 + 0.626*t

    Seasonal Indices

    Period Index

    1 1.18481

    2 0.96443

    3 0.85607

    4 0.99468

    Accuracy Measures

    MAPE 25.9107

    MAD 1.1819

    MSD 2.0617


    Period Forecast

    2013 Q2 11.7509

    2013 Q3 10.9669

    2013 Q4 13.3658

    2014 Q1 16.6628

    (click to enlarge)

    Source for all charts: Author.

    Disclosure: I am long AAPL.

    Tags: AAPL, Long Ideas
    Apr 23 2:25 PM | Link | Comment!
  • AT&T Chart

    A head and shoulder? Wait and see....
    Tags: T
    Jun 17 4:03 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Fair Value Estimation - Technology Companies
    Fair Value Estimates - Technology Companies

    1) Intel has 60% Upside Potential
    2) Apple has 30% Upside Potential 
    3) Cisco has 50% Upside Potential
    Jun 13 6:58 AM | Link | Comment!
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