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Markets and Hype: A Tale of Two Depressions
Thnx for the comments.
Nick, I agree with you. This is one of my favorite topics of conversation: Investors build their strategies based on what's worked within their recent lifetimes. Those who did this did not understand what happened in '08 and did badly; whereas, those who had perspective on what had happened in faraway places (Latin America, Japan, Germany) and long ago times (Great Depression) did well or relatively well.
On Aug 03 06:49 PM Nick36 wrote:
> Perhaps the reason why investor sentiment is different now than it
> was in 1930 is history.
> There was another great depression in USA and Europe that lasted
> from 1873 to 1896, with some ups and downs in the economy during
> that period.
> In 1930, many people still remembered living through that long 23-year
> depression. And that's why investors didn't buy, when in June of
> 1930 President Hoover declared that the ongoing depression in USA
> was finished and done.
> But now virtually all investors personally remember only short recessions
> followed by spectacular stock market recoveries. And that's why
> it isn't hard for the media and the government to persuade a lot
> of investors that the present recession is just like all the other
> recessions which happened after the second world war.
> People use their experience to predict the future. And that's why
> they aren't so good at predicting something that is outside of their
> Perhaps people will believe that this recession is different from
> all the other ones they've experienced only when the current economic
> troubles continue year after year without end, the way it happened
> in Japan in recent times.
Aug 4 01:19 AM
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Active Power: A Diamond in the Rough
appreciate your comment. the wave of market adoption you've awaited and now don't anticipate until you die has already begun and is now 2 years in-motion. investors' thought processes become clouded when things don't turn out as expected and/or on their timelines; i'd encourage you to take another look with as much objectivity as possible.
per my piece, it has taken a decade for proof of concept. the technology now is proven. market adoption subsequently began to gain momentum a couple of years ago... battery-based technology in this space is slowly being disintermediated. but don't take it from me; just speak with any consultant engineer in the know about tech in this space.
And just wait to see what happens when ACPW's new generation of flywheel-based UPS hit the market.. we're likely to see an acceleration in market share loss for battery-based manufacturers.
Dec 31 07:28 PM
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