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Electric Phred

 
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  • Intel: Competing Views Leading Up To Analyst Day On November 20th
    Fri, Nov. 14 INTC 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Intel's Analyst Day is set for November 20th.
    • Two leading Wall Street Analysts rate the stock "underweight". Short Interest has swelled.
    • There are many rumors of positive developments which might be unveiled at the Analyst Day.
  • Micron: More Curious Corporate Finance
    Mon, Nov. 3 MU 26 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron Technology released its 10K and announced a $1 billion stock buyback on October 27.
    • Value players and significant holders Seth Klarman and David Einhorn must be scratching their heads at a buyback of a non-dividend paying stock, while interest bearing convertibles remain outstanding.
    • This share buyback is a first for Micron and is a significant sign of vigorous health in the underlying business and markets.
    • This must be the beginning of the end of the disastrous convertible financings. It must be the end of the beginning of stock buybacks and dividends certain to follow.
  • We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown!
    Thu, Sep. 11 AAPL, MU 119 Comments

    Summary

    • Something interesting may be going on with iPhone 6 Plus memory.
    • Something interesting is going on with the battery life of the iPhone 6 Plus vs. the iPhone 6.
    • A memory pundit advised buying memory chip manufacturers if the iPhone 6 had 2GB of DRAM.
  • Micron Technology: What's Up With Phase Change Memory?
    Thu, Jul. 31 MU 40 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron used to sell the highest density PCM chip made and it has disappeared from its offerings.
    • Micron has spent a bunch of money on phase change including the purchase of Numonyx where much of the intellectual property resides.
    • PCM may be in for a resurrection with some new memory technologies.
  • Micron's Toxic Converts: The Beginning Of The End?
    Editors' Pick • Thu, Jul. 24 MU 61 Comments

    Summary

    • Yesterday, Micron Technology announced issuance of $1.15 billion of 5.5% straight debt to redeem convertibles. This is good news!
    • Micron has not had huge success buying back the converts in the market.
    • This may be one of the closing chapters in one of the worst pieces of corporate finance work ever.
    • Micron continues to show a materially misleading convertible dilution table on its website.
    • Once we have dealt with the converts, we can join companies with very specific programs to return cash to shareholders, like SanDisk and Intel.
  • Will Micron Move Up With SanDisk?
    Wed, Jul. 16 MU 92 Comments

    Summary

    • SanDisk reports earnings after the market closes today.
    • Micron's CEO Mark Durcan scared investors with his frank comments on the trailing position Micron "enjoys" in its NAND business. SanDisk is the ultimate sanity check on NAND.
    • Micron's stock has been strongly correlated with SanDisk's in the past.
  • Micron Technology: Toxic Convertibles, Part 2
    Mon, Jun. 16 MU 90 Comments

    Summary

    • CFO Ron Foster's inaction on retiring just the most recently issued tranche of converts has cost us $5mm per day since mid April.
    • The company's disclosure on the convertibles continues to be confusing and incomplete.
    • The company's effort of retiring $99 million of converts in April and May cost us $245 million. More should be done before the costs go up!
  • Micron Technology: DRAM Dashing Along, NAND More Nuanced
    Wed, Jun. 11 MU 108 Comments

    Summary

    • ORCL's In Memory Database announcements mean Larry Ellison can buy some faster boats.
    • Pundits have focused on this week's Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgrade of MU and SNDK but the real meat is in some Credit Suisse reports.
    • MU's DRAM results are far better than the guidance provided at the last earnings call, and NAND is likely to be worse.
  • Micron Technology: It's The DRAM Stupid
    Mon, May. 12 MU 83 Comments

    Summary

    • DRAM pricing is firm in this, the weakest seasonal quarter.
    • DDR3 DRAM is on allocation!
    • Micron Technology's biggest line of business is DRAM.
  • Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster
    Editors' Pick • Sun, Apr. 13 MU 248 Comments

    Summary

    • Micron's disclosure on its disastrous convertible bonds is incomplete and this limited disclosure has been tardy in being started.
    • Wall St analysts are not writing about the effects of Micron's convertible bonds.
    • These convertible bonds have burnt up billions of cash equity.
  • Micron: Updates Following Q2 Earnings
    Mon, Apr. 7 MU 87 Comments

    Summary

    • Confusion, not consensus, reigns among sell side analysts.
    • Best use of Wall Street sell side research on Micron may be to track dispersion and direction of estimates.
    • Yahoo "consensus" totally lacking in transparency. Average estimate of $0.68 for 3Q14 and $3 for 2014 as of April 5, 2014.
  • Micron: It's The Cash Flow Stupid
    Fri, Apr. 4 MU 112 Comments

    Summary

    • 2Q non-GAAP eps of $0.85 was a nice beat over "consensus" which had risen from $0.61 to $0.76 over the past couple of weeks. $4.1 billion revenue also a beat.
    • Management sounds completely uninspired on their calls. Lack of an earnings calendar or any normal guidance doesn't inspire confidence in institutional investors.
    • Cash flow is great!
  • Micron: Wall Street Analyst Schizophrenia
    Mon, Mar. 31 MU 169 Comments

    Summary

    • "Consensus" EPS for Q2 raised to $0.74 but actual number is lower.
    • Wall Street analysts still don't "get" the story; need to do more basic research.
    • My estimate for the Feb quarter is $0.90 eps and <=$4 billion in revenue.
  • Micron Technology: The Insider Sellers
    Wed, Feb. 5 MU 46 Comments
  • Micron Technology: New Year's Resolutions And Predictions
    Wed, Jan. 22 MU 95 Comments
  • When Will SSDs Finish Off Spinning Rust?
    Dec. 8, 2013 HXSCF, SSNLF, TOSBF 74 Comments
  • Micron: An Owner's Manual For David Einhorn
    Nov. 22, 2013 MU 48 Comments
  • Micron Earnings Estimates
    Nov. 7, 2013 MU 151 Comments
  • Is A Takover In The Cards For Micron?
    Nov. 7, 2013 MU 50 Comments
  • Micron's Inventory Myth
    Oct. 30, 2013 MU 296 Comments
  • Micron Gets Aligned
    Oct. 22, 2013 MU 66 Comments
  • Micron Is Still Shareholder Unfriendly
    Oct. 13, 2013 MU 40 Comments
  • Will Micron Ever Be Shareholder Friendly?
    Sep. 19, 2013 MU 72 Comments
  • Micron To Benefit From Memory Shortages, Part VII
    Sep. 17, 2013 MU 121 Comments
  • Micron Guides To Over $3.50 In Earnings Per Share
    Sep. 4, 2013 MU 53 Comments
  • Elpida Acquisition Will Be Accretive To Micron, Part IV
    Aug. 11, 2013 MU 20 Comments
  • Can Micron Hide $3.00 In EPS?
    Aug. 8, 2013 MU 76 Comments
  • Memory Markets: Why It 'Is' Different This Time
    Jul. 31, 2013 SSNLF, SNDK, MU 24 Comments
  • Elpida Acquisition Will Be Accretive To Micron, Part III
    Editors' Pick • Jun. 18, 2013 MU 9 Comments
  • Micron To Print Some Black Ink, Part II
    Jun. 13, 2013 MU 5 Comments
  • Micron To Print Some Black Ink
    Jun. 11, 2013 MU 13 Comments
  • Will Micron's Phase Change Memory Win The Flash Replacement Race?
    Jun. 6, 2013 MU 9 Comments