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Intel: Competing Views Leading Up To Analyst Day On November 20th
- Intel's Analyst Day is set for November 20th.
- Two leading Wall Street Analysts rate the stock "underweight". Short Interest has swelled.
- There are many rumors of positive developments which might be unveiled at the Analyst Day.
Micron: More Curious Corporate Finance
- Micron Technology released its 10K and announced a $1 billion stock buyback on October 27.
- Value players and significant holders Seth Klarman and David Einhorn must be scratching their heads at a buyback of a non-dividend paying stock, while interest bearing convertibles remain outstanding.
- This share buyback is a first for Micron and is a significant sign of vigorous health in the underlying business and markets.
- This must be the beginning of the end of the disastrous convertible financings. It must be the end of the beginning of stock buybacks and dividends certain to follow.
We Need An iPhone 6 Teardown!
- Something interesting may be going on with iPhone 6 Plus memory.
- Something interesting is going on with the battery life of the iPhone 6 Plus vs. the iPhone 6.
- A memory pundit advised buying memory chip manufacturers if the iPhone 6 had 2GB of DRAM.
Micron Technology: What's Up With Phase Change Memory?
- Micron used to sell the highest density PCM chip made and it has disappeared from its offerings.
- Micron has spent a bunch of money on phase change including the purchase of Numonyx where much of the intellectual property resides.
- PCM may be in for a resurrection with some new memory technologies.
Micron's Toxic Converts: The Beginning Of The End?
- Yesterday, Micron Technology announced issuance of $1.15 billion of 5.5% straight debt to redeem convertibles. This is good news!
- Micron has not had huge success buying back the converts in the market.
- This may be one of the closing chapters in one of the worst pieces of corporate finance work ever.
- Micron continues to show a materially misleading convertible dilution table on its website.
- Once we have dealt with the converts, we can join companies with very specific programs to return cash to shareholders, like SanDisk and Intel.
Will Micron Move Up With SanDisk?
- SanDisk reports earnings after the market closes today.
- Micron's CEO Mark Durcan scared investors with his frank comments on the trailing position Micron "enjoys" in its NAND business. SanDisk is the ultimate sanity check on NAND.
- Micron's stock has been strongly correlated with SanDisk's in the past.
Micron Technology: Toxic Convertibles, Part 2
- CFO Ron Foster's inaction on retiring just the most recently issued tranche of converts has cost us $5mm per day since mid April.
- The company's disclosure on the convertibles continues to be confusing and incomplete.
- The company's effort of retiring $99 million of converts in April and May cost us $245 million. More should be done before the costs go up!
Micron Technology: DRAM Dashing Along, NAND More Nuanced
- ORCL's In Memory Database announcements mean Larry Ellison can buy some faster boats.
- Pundits have focused on this week's Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgrade of MU and SNDK but the real meat is in some Credit Suisse reports.
- MU's DRAM results are far better than the guidance provided at the last earnings call, and NAND is likely to be worse.
Micron Technology: It's The DRAM Stupid
- DRAM pricing is firm in this, the weakest seasonal quarter.
- DDR3 DRAM is on allocation!
- Micron Technology's biggest line of business is DRAM.
Micron Technology: Convertible Disaster
- Micron's disclosure on its disastrous convertible bonds is incomplete and this limited disclosure has been tardy in being started.
- Wall St analysts are not writing about the effects of Micron's convertible bonds.
- These convertible bonds have burnt up billions of cash equity.
Micron: Updates Following Q2 Earnings
- Confusion, not consensus, reigns among sell side analysts.
- Best use of Wall Street sell side research on Micron may be to track dispersion and direction of estimates.
- Yahoo "consensus" totally lacking in transparency. Average estimate of $0.68 for 3Q14 and $3 for 2014 as of April 5, 2014.
Micron: It's The Cash Flow Stupid
- 2Q non-GAAP eps of $0.85 was a nice beat over "consensus" which had risen from $0.61 to $0.76 over the past couple of weeks. $4.1 billion revenue also a beat.
- Management sounds completely uninspired on their calls. Lack of an earnings calendar or any normal guidance doesn't inspire confidence in institutional investors.
- Cash flow is great!
Micron: Wall Street Analyst Schizophrenia
- "Consensus" EPS for Q2 raised to $0.74 but actual number is lower.
- Wall Street analysts still don't "get" the story; need to do more basic research.
- My estimate for the Feb quarter is $0.90 eps and <=$4 billion in revenue.
- Micron Technology: The Insider Sellers
- Micron Technology: New Year's Resolutions And Predictions
- When Will SSDs Finish Off Spinning Rust?
- Micron: An Owner's Manual For David Einhorn
- Micron Earnings Estimates
- Is A Takover In The Cards For Micron?
- Micron's Inventory Myth
- Micron Gets Aligned
- Micron Is Still Shareholder Unfriendly
- Will Micron Ever Be Shareholder Friendly?
- Micron To Benefit From Memory Shortages, Part VII
- Micron Guides To Over $3.50 In Earnings Per Share
- Elpida Acquisition Will Be Accretive To Micron, Part IV
- Can Micron Hide $3.00 In EPS?
- Memory Markets: Why It 'Is' Different This Time
- Elpida Acquisition Will Be Accretive To Micron, Part III
- Micron To Print Some Black Ink, Part II
- Micron To Print Some Black Ink
- Will Micron's Phase Change Memory Win The Flash Replacement Race?