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  • Oasis Petroleum: Breakeven Cash Flow Long Term At $66 WTI Oil, Probable $150 Million Cash Deficit In 2015 [View article]
    I believe Oasis's wording is that their acreage is highly economic at $60 to $70 per barrel WTI oil. The wells will turn a reasonable profit at $60 per barrel WTI oil, but that doesn't mean that the company itself will be cash flow positive at $60 oil (mainly due to interest). Interest is equal to $12 per barrel of oil produced.

    Plus Oasis's calculations assume a 10% WTI differential, which is probably a bit optimistic at lower oil prices. 10% works fine at $90 to $100 per barrel, but the differential probably more of a fixed number than a percentage due to the way it works with transportation costs affecting the differential.
    Jan 25, 2015. 12:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Taseko Reduces Workforce At Gibraltar [View article]
    Not necessarily. I've seen a number of mines lay off a small percentage (5% to 10%) of its workforce without affecting production.

    Also if you look at Taseko in 2008 - they laid off 16% of Gibraltar's workforce at the time, but it doesn't appear that production was affected.
    Jan 22, 2015. 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: True Gold Mining Replaces CEO Dwayne Melrose, Provides A Damage Estimate Of $4-$8 Million After Demonstrations Halt Karma's Development [View article]
    I believe that the mine entrance is around 1/4th of a mile from the mosque. At least that's what I've gathered from news articles.
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • True Gold Mining: A Cheap Near-Term Gold Producer; 124% Upside Potential [View article]
    I think diesel prices have fallen around 25%.

    http://bit.ly/1ylD9D3 mentions that gold miners use around 26 gallons of diesel per ounce produced. So a $1 change in the price of diesel would save $26 per ounce in operating costs.

    The effect in 2015 varies a lot from miner to miner depending on hedges and the particular mines they have.

    From reading the Karma mine plan, a 25% decrease in diesel costs would save roughly $15 per ounce over the first five years.
    Jan 16, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: True Gold Suspends Karma Operations As Demonstrations Escalate [View article]
    Here's another news article with info in English - http://bit.ly/1BAgD8U
    Jan 16, 2015. 03:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Angie's List Provides Year-End Subscriber Numbers [View article]
    The difference between adjusted EBITDA and EBITDA is that Angie's List removes non-cash based stock compensation to get to adjusted EBITDA.
    Jan 15, 2015. 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • True Gold Mining: How The Disturbance In Ramatoulaye Affects The Value Of Karma [View article]
    Yes, that's a good link to read. The story date is December 8, 2014 and it also relates to the general assembly story that I've linked in the article.

    I've written an update, which should be published soon, but here's another link detailing the problem: http://bit.ly/1yozYHF

    Apparently some locals expressed concerns about the mine, and had thought that the concerns were forwarded to the authorities. However, they were surprised when the mine work was being done without those concerns being addressed.

    The entrance question is an interesting one. As noted above, the property is quite large, so you'd figure that another entrance could be found.
    Jan 15, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Shale Oil: What Doesn't Kill Me Makes Me Stronger [View article]
    I believe the difference between $1.95 per Mcf gas and $3.50 Mcf gas is equivalent to a $4 per barrel change in the price of oil. So add $4 per barrel to the relevant oil numbers.
    Jan 13, 2015. 08:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Solid Q4 Sales Growth Results In Validation Of $6 To $9 Range [View article]
    $4 billion in sales in Q4 is extremely unlikely. Would need +26% comps in January.
    Jan 8, 2015. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Solid Q4 Sales Growth Results In Validation Of $6 To $9 Range [View article]
    I'm guessing something like $0.10 to $0.15 EPS this quarter.

    Probably would be mildly positive for the stock. Consensus earnings is at $0.07 right now, and was at $0.14 a couple months ago.

    If the stock did go really crazy at that, I don't think it would last extremely long. Turning a profit in Q4 is pretty easy for a retailer to do unless they're on a fast path to dying. Even $0.15 EPS in Q4 would probably put JCP above only Sears in terms of department store profitability. And then you're probably looking at a loss of $0.50 per share or more in Q1 still.

    Jan 8, 2015. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Solid Q4 Sales Growth Results In Validation Of $6 To $9 Range [View article]
    The reason I like to look at 2010 is that it makes for a stable comparison year. Can't really do comparisons well when the denominator is going all over the place like during the Ron Johnson era.

    JCP's on-line revenue is down 23% from 2010.
    Jan 8, 2015. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Solid Q4 Sales Growth Results In Validation Of $6 To $9 Range [View article]
    Yeah, I could see a case for owning it at $6 given JCP's tendency to spring upward on any good news.

    Certainly there is generally overreaction with JCP though. I read the comments from a year ago, and a lot of bulls took exception to me using 5% comps as a growth projection for 2014, believing that it was way too low.

    JCP is on track to do less than that (a bit above 4% comps) in 2014, and now a worse growth rate than what people were criticizing me for using suddenly is something to celebrate. A lot of people aren't being honest with themselves as to how JCP has done relative to their sales expectations from a year ago.

    JCP has legitimately done things like cost control quite well. JCP should be around for quite a long time still because of its ability to manage that. However, sales growth for 2014 must be considered very mediocre compared to bull expectations from a year ago.
    Jan 8, 2015. 04:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Has There Actually Been A Turnaround? [View article]
    @Qniform,

    Yeah, I figured that I'd continue to follow JCP since I collected a lot of information on it before.

    I'm guessing some of the more rabid bulls will show up again now that JCP had a solid quarter. That's the way of things.

    JCP might end up being a good short opportunity again if it pops up again because of this quarter, so it might be worth following again over the next few months.
    Jan 6, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney: Has There Actually Been A Turnaround? [View article]
    @Fast Lane,

    Um, I'm not sure why I would be weeping....

    If you actually read this article, I said that I expected +3.8% comps during Q4, which was above consensus.
    Jan 6, 2015. 06:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Yamana Responds To $244 Million Assessment In Argentine Legal Dispute [View article]
    It appears that the decision in favor of Auriemma can't be appealed since it was a Supreme Court decision. So they owe something.

    Yamana is still able to dispute the damages amount though, which they are doing. Based on previous documents, Northern Orion thought its liability would be no more than $17.5 million + interest and legal fees. Ten years of interest is probably a lot, so maybe the low end of damages would be $30 million, while the current disputed amount is $244 million.

    I'm definitely no expert in Argentine legal matters, but $125 million wouldn't sound bad if it was a 50/50 tossup between $30 million and $244 million in the end.
    Jan 4, 2015. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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