Elias Simpson

Value, momentum, long only, special situations
Elias Simpson
Value, momentum, long only, special situations
Contributor since: 2012
"17,405 $30 March call options" -- Do you mean $8?
News this morning: first patient enrolled in trial at MD Anderson for "Phase 1 Study of Second Generation Non-Viral CD19-Specific CAR T-Cell Therapy for Advanced Lymphoid Malignancies."
Scrying Biotech, Thank you for the thoughtful comments. I agree with you, the optimism was forced, and an expedited phase-3 would be possible only if dosage were not changed. The typo concerning 116 was also submitted as an edit. As for the timing, the interim results, being somewhat disappointing, provide a benchmark for the end results, which could surprise either way. I'm not advocating holding through the final results. Final data should be collected by this summer. "According to clinicaltrials.gov, the estimated final data collection date for the primary endpoint is June 2016. The estimated study completion date is December 2016" (http://seekingalpha.co...).
Is your chart on MS medication sales correct? You say the figures are in millions, but it seems far-fetched, even for the healthcare industry.
Congratulations, Jason, great call.
Valuable airspace indeed.
Lord Baltimore,
First rule of Seeking Alpha Pro--don't talk about Seeking Alpha Pro. I'm not subscribed, so I can't visit your article. The Greenhill report is a valuable tool for valuing specific metropolitan areas. It appears the FCC's high-end estimate for median price for a Class A station in San Diego is projected at $140 million. This is an extremely compelling figure. Thank you for the comment.
Why do you pick on MNKD? There's a partnership in the works, plus a disruptive treatment for one of the fastest growing health epidemics in the world.
I think you are missing Actelion in your final chart. 10 yes votes out of 13 is 77%.
According to the American Diabetes Association website: "Only people with type 2 diabetes can use pills to manage their diabetes, people with type 1 diabetes must use insulin."
Also, since we're speculating...Mann could be waiting for some bargaining leverage with a big pharma. Who knows?
Last quarter they announced earnings on the fourth (November) for the next week. I was expecting something today. Perhaps folks are speculating that the company is delaying some bad news. I also have read that microcap stocks have been taking this pullback harder than other companies, which is of course always the case. Maybe this 30% just comes with the territory of being a thinly traded, under reported company.
Thanks. I saw this ad and thought--there's a good idea for a little under cover work.
Indeed. What has changed since the FDA rejected the drug? The company has rearranged some data? You ought to really believe in the potential for this drug before you buy in. It will fall below $1 on bad news.
BTW, Lindsay Rosenwald run Paramount Biopharm, which owns CHTP, has a record of picking drugs with somewhat novel previous applications. The fact that this was approved in 1989 in Japan means absolutely nothing to the FDA. It serves as a red flag to me. Just see what happened recently to another Paramount company, Coronado Bioscience (CNDO) whose drug (slip worm, actually) had been used successfully to treat Chron's disease.
Good luck to you...
pushes SNY into the green for the day? maybe too early to tell the effect.
AVEO, AVEO, people said the same thing about AVEO.
it's not exactly a sell off. the capitalization value is less because the company no longer includes HART.
considering the distribution of HART shares at 1:4, HART market cap should be worth 20% that of HBIO. Respectively, HBIO would be worth 20% less now than before.
i am long--but wouldn't buy HBIO right now. statistically speaking, spinoffs do better than the parent company post-split.
thanks for the article, i should say.
just read the IPO deal for Mascoma was cancelled.
more waiting for that value?
Any idea what kind of notice will be given in advance of the sale of OPM? Couldn't one wait to see the deal before investing for this reason?
so those shares that don't sell at $43 will race to be sold off, driving prices back down, appx. 60% towards where it was before the offer ($36). By these numbers it would drop $4.20, to $38.80.
is that how the proration factor would effect the price? with a smaller float, would it be reasonable to assume that the effect would be 20% less? so a drop of $3.36 to $39.64?
Wouldn't a smaller float mitigate a significant drop post-tender?
I'm ignorant to this, but how would the proration factor effect stock price?
-Thank you.
Who doesn't love a good old fashioned rate increase?
I'd rather invest in companies that aren't in the process of destroying the rainforests.
Great technical setup, and good timing with the catalyst approaching. An abortive migraine drug would be a lifesaver, but this one seems only moderately effective (relieving about half of patients compared to 30% success for placebo).
This is Ron Bentsur of decimated XTL Biopharma...ugly story for investors.
Thanks for the article. I once tried some Indian snack food from a world market and I can't say I liked it. Part of it was strictly taste, but some was the obviously "foreign" packaging with an odd bright-forest-green color, hard-to-open metallic wrapping, and only a few awkward words in English. This is just to point out that there are hurdles for non-American companies when trying to penetrate the market here. I will keep an eye out for Amira at Costco. Just looking at the products on google.images, however, they packaging looks pretty silly. The slogan "Good Length" on most of the products doesn't even make sense. Is it talking about the cook time, the length of the grain, good for what type of cooking? Interesting idea, though, for getting in on the basmati rice market.
Hopefully all the conference presentations from NBS this month will spur some upward trending with good news.
According to Fidelity, SKUL still has a .4 PEG ratio, nearly 1/3 the industry average of 1.11.
Hi Bill, It's always good to know what the guy on the top is getting. It certainly effects investors, one way or another.
Thanks for your thoughts. There's obviously limited room for growth in financing unless you can keep growing the retail. Considering valuation, I definitely see a case for shorting.